Wednesday, January 31, 2007

raging bull

The market is really bullish right now with consecutive 1% gains in a few days and despite a 3% drop last friday januarv26 but it still doesnt matter. It still shows that our market is really in a bullish mode with many foreigners joining the fun in our market. There are hardly any bargains in our market. But there are still a few and im really interested with this one find of mine. I will tell you about it in time for i am still gathering more info and data but it really looks promising. It can be the next urc, ict and smdc! :) for speculators you might like v! Its breakout point is at 1.70! :) very solid stock which is still undervalued as of now with the sale of its shares in ibank. :) just remember that being a value investor means being patient and waiting for the right opportunities. :)it is really a different discipline altogether being a value investor. It means being a marathon runner not being a sprinter and its harder than being a speculator. As they say “have faith that is all that matters” this applies when everything looks hopeless but you should still hold on to your research that your holding an excellent stock that could give you excellent returns in a few years time. A friend of mine gerthrode was able to read my blog and she requested that i write about how the stock market works. Basically its just a big marketplace where people buy and sell stocks. :) maybe ill write about it next time. Thank you so much for taking the time to read my blog. Take care everyone and good luck in all your trades. Market really looks bullish and i still cant believe it that after a few months that i wrote that the minimm upside of the market is 3,150 and now our market has breached it and it would seem to me that it is forming a new base. But i believe that our market will continue trending up. God bless :)

Thursday, January 25, 2007

the bargain of the quarter!

Good day everyone! Hope all is well with you there. Another trader friend of mine just read this humble blog of mine today and im happy to say that he liked it. Unless he is lying to me. Hehehe but anyway my friend nico suggested that i should have my picks for the quarter for both fundamental and speculative investors. Well i do have to admit that i am really more of a fundamentalist but still i will try my best. For my fundamental pick of the month i really like urc! URC! At 18-19 per share it is a bargain. It was just announced today that its income for 2006 increased by 19%! that means more or less its eps is around 1.45-1.50 so it should really be trading around the 22-24 range based on its historical eps. :) this company is solid and i watched the interview of mr lance gokongwei this morning in bloomberg and what can i say?!?! the guy will take urc to new heights! With all due respect to mr john gokongwei who started it all but lance understands the needs of investors! He knows how to unlock shareholder value. Give him 5-10 years more he will really be a force to reckon with in the philippine industry!i like urc it has good management and it has great growth potential with its beverage division being its growth driver! :) i have to say that i love c2! :) as spyfrat and my friend rafael had lunch today the former confided to me. . . i really dont know f he is just trying to flatter me but when urc was already trading at around 5 i wanted to buy shares already but spyfrat discouraged me so i gave in but after a few weeks i really liked what i saw in urc and i really insisted that i should get shares so i was able to get some at 6.40 and i bought a few more after. He told me that i made him realize that gokongwei stocks are not that bad because he never liked gokongwei stocks. Hehehe so now he is also a believer! MR LANCE GOKONGWEI i hope youre reading this! Hehehe technically the minimum upside of urc is around P31 so i do hope that we get there. At its present price this is a bargain. I wouldnt be surprised if this shoots up to 30 or more. So this is my parting word to you all! See you at P30! HEHEHEHE btw there is this another stock that im studying it is also owned by a tycoon. It has very very good fundamentals i will tell you about it in a few weeks time because im still studying it!!!! :) god bless :)


The dinagyang festival here in iloilo city will be on january 26-28. come to iloilo city and experience the excitement of dinagyang and the fun of merrymaking in the streets. :) we will also have lunch in our house for invited guests. :) come and enjoy the fun in iloilo city! Come and experience dinagyang! :) hoping to see you here! :)

Monday, January 22, 2007

go psei!

The dinagyang spirit is alive here in iloilo. Come and visit dinagyang here in iloilo. I just checked the monthly charts of the psei and i just found out soomething. Around 1996-97 the psei topped at around 2632 and we broke that barrier around two months ago but what happened is that when the psei made a new high it also means that it has set a new minimum upside for itself! Its new minimum upside is 4264. when we are gonna reach this i dont know but with the way our market has been going the last few weeks i should say that its possible that we might going in that direction. :) lets just hope and pray that were going to get there. :)

new high

Now that's what i'm talking about! The psei showing signs of waking up! And waking up big time! This is the effect of the santa claus rally from the last week of 2006. i hope that it will reach its minimum upside of 3,150 in a few weeks time :) with the market having gains of more than 1% in a trading last january 12, 15 and 18 which shows that the market is truly bullish! I think that as of the moment i can say that the market can surpass the 3,400 mark. But i really dont know if the market could reach it this year or some time next year. But its almost sure that were going to go over it. There are still some good finds in the market. URC is trading sideways as of the moment. That is a good stock to buy at P18 or at a lower price. But be ready to hold it for 5 years or more. :) i've held stocks of this company for almost three years now and i still don't have any plans of selling. This is the first stock that i bought when i decided to be a value investor. I bought 4000 shares of urc at P6.40 on june 24, 2004 and the rest is history. :) it reached a high of 24.50 and technically its minimum upside is 31. :) but well even if it reaches 31 i still don't have plans of selling it. Hehehe there's a stock that i kinda like right now. Its gsmi because its trading at such a big discount. Its trading at a 30% discount right now but the problem that im trying to figure out is that.... the last few years the sales of ginebra has suffered because of stiff competition from tanduay and im not a big fan of ginebra's management. That's why im thinking this over. Well there are still sleepers in the market. SGI and ASIA are good bets. :) v can also be good with the upcoming ipo of its subsidiary yehey. I believe that JFC will have a good year and i just made a new high which is good news for tsupiteros. :) EPHI is also a sleeper. I will tell you next time of this stock that i have been looking at that selling at a bargain right now. :) god bless to everyone. :)

Friday, January 12, 2007

tagaytay highlands

Its such a wonderful weekend its the first weekend of 2007 and im here in tagaytay. Its a really beautiful place :) very cool, calm and relaxing. I couldnt really compare it with baguio but its good enough. :) the good thing about tagaytay is that its nearer an hours drive away from manila and baguio is around five hours drive. That is why i know of a lot of people who would rather go to tagaytay than baguio because of the long travel. Im not putting down baguio because personally i like baguio. Cool and the smell of pine :) but tagaytay is good enough and its nearer. The point that im driving at is that in a way this is good for tagaytay highlands. :) another sy-owned company :) i just couldnt stop praising the guy for his business and financial genius. Both my dad and e admire him very much. Im going to do further research on bel and hp for i see another diamond in the rough. :) they are currently developing the tagaytay midlands which is connected to the highlands by cable car. :) the facilities of the place is nice and then the highlands steakhouse serve really good steak! :) yumyum :) this is the best way to do research go there and see for yourself :) im going to do further research on these companies. :) i think im going to add them on my stock wish list :)

donations please

Talked to my friend paul yesterday and asked him how he was and whats the development for any kidney donors. So far he said his mom is a possible donor but that is still not sure and they havent checked it out yet if they are compatible. He has dialysis twice a week. I really dont know how much it costs to have a dialysis but i heard its kinda costly and a rough estimate of a kidney transplant is around P500k. I really want to help my friend paul and ill try to raise funds for him.we talked and he even told “if it was just me i really wouldnt mind if i dont get any treatment but my two kids are still very young.” if there are any good souls who want to help my friend paul please contact me for im trying to raise funds for him. Thank you very much

despite the debacle in thailand i still really hope that the psei will close strong for the year. Anywhere between 2,900 and 3,000 would be ok. :)

Wednesday, January 10, 2007

thank you very much!

It has been a great year for the philippine stock exchange! Yeeehhhaaa!!!! :) congratulations to all tsupiteros and investors. Let us not forget to thank the BIG MAN up there. :) i would like to thank some of my friends in the investing world. First of all my family for giving me a good foundation in business, then my friend rafael who introduced me to investing in stocks, then my broker spyfrat for guiding me in my trades when i was starting out and up to now, i would also like to thank all the successful value investors for being an inspiration to me especially the great Warren Buffet! :) to all the readers of my blog thank you so much for taking the time to read what i have to say. I know im only human and im bound to make mistakes but i employ a style in which i try to eliminate the margin of error or margin of safety as they call it. To those who followed my advice/recommendations thank you. :) and to one generous individual who followed what i said and gained a large sum of money thank you for sharing with me, and even up to a point of insisting, a part of your gains(you didnt have to but still thank you very much). I would like to state again that my blog is a diary for me that after a few years i could go back and reflect why i bought, held or sold my shares in the market. I do not in any way solicit or expect payment. I do this because i love investing and i do this for the betterment of our stock market. I know that there are still a lot of people that i have to mention. You guys know who you are! Thank you and godbless! Fly high psei!!!!!

what a year!!!

Wow! What a way to end the year :) to be honest with you i had my doubts last week if there would be a rally at the end of the year with the foreign exchange controls that was imposed in thailand. Thats the hard part of being a long term investor. You might know how to evaluate a company with good fundamentals and but it at a good price but the question is can you hold on to it when things don't go your way? :) as they say do you have the balls of steel? Hehehe i believe that is the hardest part of being a value investor. . . holding on to stocks. I remember what the great warren buffett said “i made a lot of money doing nothing”. He said this because of his buy and hold strategy. Even when things don't look good or even if the dow jones will drop 100points in a day he really doesnt mind because what really matters for him is the fundamentals of the company. :) this is what i also mentioned in my earlier article. When youre investing you don't buy stocks but you buy parts of companies. :) like i recall just the other day i was with my trader friend rafael and he was kidding me that i shouldnt have bought sgi because it is not a good company cause it has too much cash. Of course i recommended it to him around 2 months ago and he didnt buy it and i did because i see so much value in the company. I didnt even care to explain to him my reasons for having shares in the company :) the net net value of the company or its current assets less all its liabilities is P1.26 and it has been in the 0.60-0.85 range! If you cant see value in that then something must be wrong with you. That means that if the company closes down tomorrow and it has to liquidate all its assets you will still get 1.26 per share after paying all liabilities and that is just from its current assets! We havnt even talked about its long term assets like land, building equipment etc. i would rather buy a company with excess cash than buy a company with excess long term assets because as they say in business cash is king :)you give P1M and i bring it to aparri, sulu or batanes it will still be worth p1M. If there's a piece of land and you have 10 people look at it i'm sure everyone will come up with a different price.besides it is hard to sell real estate and when you quickly want to dispose of long term assets you will most of the time sell it at a discount. My portfolio this year performed 44.76% before dividends while the psei did 42.29% :) im happy i was able to outperform the psei this year by a few points :) i really hope that i will be able to do that again next year :) i hope theres a good soul/s out there who would be willing to give some financial help to my friend. Please let me know if you want to help. The spirit of christmas is in giving and in sharing. :) merry christmas and a happy new year to all. :) god bless :)