Thursday, December 27, 2007

as sure as the sun will rise

Its been a very busy christmas :) the season has now a different meaning when you age, i now understand what the older people have been saying all the while hehehe :) but anyway its been a joyous christmas for me and even though my wallet has been massacred with all the gifts and “tips” to people im still happy to see the smile in their faces. :) this article will be my little christmas gift to all of you readers of my blog. :) the last two weeks we have seen the steady rise in the share price of digitel communications. :) and why is that??? because of speculation of a takeover by a singaporean company and a few other offers from others. :) the talk thats going around is that they are offering $900m but mr gokongwei wants to sell at $1b and that is why the negotiations are still in limbo. Time will tell what will happen to this company. I will tell you a little story what lead me to research about this company. :) i like this company and even liked it better when i saw the numbers. :) i saw hidden value in the company or maybe you could say that i saw promise or potential in its product. :) it was undervalued because the company was still losing money. :) this is still value investing but with a twist. :) i only so two things happening to this company: it making money or an investor buys it at its fair value or even at a premium. :) my family got more than 50 lines at sun cellular for our employees because we wanted to save on out telephone calls. :) they are the only network offering unlimited text and calls to the same network. :) after a few months of using my sun i realized the cost savings our company got. :) then i realized how lucky we are to have discovered the wonders and advantages of using sun cellular and it would just be a matter of time also before millions of people discover it also. :) good thing i still found the draft i made last september for sun cellular but i decided to hold it and wait for the write time to put it here. I believe there is no better time to write about it. :) my draft is dated september 12, 2007 and i have already been studying the company for two months prior to writing the draft and then i accumulated shares after a month. :) i gathered information and data and i had to be resourceful to get it from reliable sources. :) good thing i had friends who were associated with the company. :) what ill be writing down is the important points that i made in my draft. :) the big advantage that sun cellular has over other networks is their unlimited calls and texts to the same network. :) the other networks will have a hard time offering this service because it will really hurt their income but sun cellular was built to cater this unlimited service to their subscribers. :) i remember my brother-in-law saying that in cebu it is “in” if you have a sun phone. :) here is also another point in my draft, in the short term i dont expect sun to grab market share because the other networks still have superior service but i can see that sun will become a “secondary” number but they are now improving their signal, adding more cell sites and now has better coverage. If they keep up the good work they might grab a big slice of the pie. :) i can see sun cellular making money in two to three years but if you really want to be conservative maybe five years. :) sun is full blast in metro manila and in metro cebu which are the two major cities and they also have good coverage here in iloilo and to my surprise even in the towns outside the city. :) they are adding more cell sites in the visayas and mindanao area. Sun is doing well in davao and cebu because there are a lot of companies there and companies here in iloilo are also catching up the the sun cellular craze because sun gives you cost savings. I dont expect smart and globe will see a decrease in their subscriber base but i do believe that they will see a decrease in usage by their subscribers. A company should have a good manager and the gokongweis fit the bill. I admire them and believe of their capabilities of taking the company to the next level. The father started it all but the son knows how to unlock shareholder value. :) here are some of the numbers that i ran into during my research :) as per research the subscriber base as of september now reached 3million(this is an estimate) and at the end of 2006 the number was 2.2million. :) the company is expected to profit at 4 million subscribers and the long term target is 6 million subscribers. :) they have 30,000 dsl customers and the target is 50,000. :) the company's capex for 2007 is $200 and $150m will be on the cellphone business and $50m will be spent on the dsl business. :) the $150million budget for the cellular business means that their target of 40-50 cell sites per month is very much attainable. :) with these numbers i can only see good things happening to this company. Merry christmas and a happy new year to all!!! God bless!
ps. for questions, comments or suggestions please email me at
before i go as of last wednesday santa claus rally has been confirmed by the market! Hope this is a strong rally! Fly high psei!!!

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

economies and christmas

Its been a very busy past few days... phew! Im really tired because i had to attend a christmas party last friday night and went home late then had to wake up at five in the morning the next day for a trip to manila witm my father and then get back home late in the afternoon and then attended a friend's party at his bar. Wow! Then the next morning went to mass and had lunch with relatives for my maternal grandmother's 90th birthday. :) thank you lord for my very wonderful grandma. :) then in the afternoon i had coffee with a friend and then attended a christmas party with our employees and i really had a good time watching their presentations and enjoyed watching them participate in the games. :) then im here now in my room in bed trying to write something for this blog. :)
last saturday with my dad in the airport we got to talk to a businessman friend and about china and a lot of other stuff about business. :) he mentioned that the bad debt rate in china is 32% which is even worse than the us subprime crisis. And his question was that why isnt it affecting china the way it does in the us??? i really cant answer that question also. :) and besides i have to verify the numbers that he was saying. :) but i agree with what he said that as of the moment china will just keep on moving up because there is a lot of money going in because of the coming beijing olympics in 2008. i remember my cousin telling us when we were there for vacation last november 2006 that china is really preparing for this event because it will be their coming out party and tell the world that “we have arrived!” my dad's friend cautioned that the stock market in 2008 will go down especially after the china olympics because we dont know if investors will continue to pour the money in or will they take it all out. :) well he has a very good contention and all opinions are correct until they are proven wrong. :) hehehe but i think otherwise, and some say that i am nuts or too optimistic but i believe that it is just common sense. Assets or i should say most assets by nature in the long term really increase in price or it is inflationary. Can you think of assets that decreased in price after 20. 30, 40 or 50 years. :) i bet you can only think of a few things that decreased in price. :) and i also believe that economies of nations or regions move in cycles or periods. :) as the saying goes “when youre down you have nowhere to go but up” and “when youre up you have nowhere to go but down.” :) and that really applies with economies also. :) the last decade the united states had one of the greatest bull markets in history and of course as they say “all good things come to an end.” :) i believe that the signal for the downtrend was the sub-prime crisis which was triggered by granting of too much credit which almost always happens in a very bullish environment. :) and of course the cost of living in progressive countries is almost always high and the opposite usually happens in not-so-progressive countries. :) which asia as a whole is catering to the world. :) its cheap labor and products. :) slowly asia is now catching up with the rest of the world led by china and india. With more jobs to people would also mean higher consumption and sooner or later would also drive commodities, basic goods and asset prices up. This is a perfect example of the law of supply and demand at work. :) when everything gets too expensive in progressive countries it forces the market to look for cheaper alternatives(just like a housewife looking to buy groceries at the cheapest store.). Does this explain the emergence of call centers all over asia??? :) i just cant wait for the day that we can be at par with the us hehehe it might a dream right now but who nows in time. :) i wish everyone a merry christmas and that the spirit if christmas is in giving. I was just talking or maybe complaining is the better word of all my expenses to a friend this december for gifts and treats but i realized that there is so much to be thankful for. :) it is also nice to give back to family and friends all the blessings that you have received. :) thank you lord for everything. :) let this be a christ-filled christmas for all of us. :) God bless and a merry christmas to all. :)

Monday, December 10, 2007

irrational mr market

mr. market is now showing signs of life and then just today it drops almost 2%? hehehe well thats the market for you. IRRATIONAL. :) and this is something that we all have to deal with. sometimes the market can be overly generous and sometimes it could also be very stingy. And it is in our better judgment at what price we buy the stock that we like. :) its been almost five years that ive been trading seriously and i even started out as a technical trader but i fell in love with value investing because of its simplicity and the two most important things that you need are:common sense and patience. :) which i dont know how but i realized that i have both of these traits. Hehehe :) i still believe that the market will still make a rally for the yearend but let us just wait and see. :) there is really nothing much i can comment about the market right now except that if you see a bargain just buy it if you can see that it could give you excellent long term returns.
A lot has happened since my last post. :) my best friend asked for a lunch meeting with me and admitted his mistake and asked for an apology which i accepted but i have to admit that i still have a little hatred towards him for that betrayal but in time i know i will forget what happened. Meanwhile my cousin has avoided or maybe you could call it refused to talk with me for fear that i might scold her. Well who i am to do that she is old enough and i assume that she knows what shes doing. :) my dad and i went to manila also last week because his friend wanted to consult him about investing in real estate. His friend has a lot of cash but due to the low interest rates he is forced to put his money elsewhere or a better return on his capital. :) talking to some of the high officials of a few banks they can see that interest rates will be around this level for the next five years which i can say is LOW. :) my dad also shares the same sentiment and i believe the different classes of assets will continue to appreciate in the near future and that includes stocks. :) but what scares people from getting into the market is if the “bubble” bursts just like what happened 10 years ago. In that aspect as far as im concerned the philippine stock market is still fairly valued and even undervalued a bit. And bubbles only happens when everything is overpriced and with this assumption i think our market is still healthy with the occasional ups and downs. :) which is typical of mr market. :)
i just celebrated my birthday a few days ago and i kinda got the “birthday blues” as they call it but thanks to friends, someone special and family i had a great day. :) i thank the lord for all the blessings and for all the people close to me. God bless to everyone and good luck.
p.s. For any comments, suggestions and questions please email me at

Sunday, December 02, 2007

trillanes rally

Mr trillanes made headlines again last thursday by holding that “coup” if you would like to call it. :) i admire our government on how they handled the situation. :) they had to use some kind of “force” to stop that stunt and to show others who would also like to destabilize the government that they mean business. I admit that president gma also has her faults but we have to look at it in a bigger picture by weighing things. There is no question that there is corruption in our government but my point on president gma remaining as president is for the fact that she knows what shes doing and she knows how to run the country and all the destabilizing plots will just be in vain. All these plots to unseat the president doesnt do us any good :) why not do something positive and help our country progress and improve!!!???!!! :) president gma is not a perfect president but she is the best person for the job right now and it is time for us to work together and help bring glory back to our country. :) and now lets talk about our favorite topic the stock market. :) my sister is interested in buying stocks for the long term and as she puts for her baby's college education. :) i can see two stocks right now that really fit the mold. :) and i told her to get some of it tomorrow! :) i do hope she has the stomach to withstand the ups and downs of the market. :) i have a friend who commented that i should have sold my shares in this certain company awhile back when it was trading at its high. Well he has the point but why cant he get my point that i buy the company and not the stock. :) i study a company and if i like it, i just wait for it to get to a price where it could give me a superior long term returns. :) its that simple really but why cant he get it??? I buy the company and it really doesnt matter to me if the market doesnt like or if the price is depressed(if its depressed doesnt it follow that its a bargain???) because all im after is buying a great company at a fair price just like what warren buffett said. :) that is one of the mysteries of the stock market because in real everyday situations people dont act like that. As they say the market is irrational. :) as ive told you before if you like a pair of shoes you usually dont wait for the price to go up and buy it, what people usually do is wait for a sale and then buy it. :) but in the market people do that opposite and i really cant explain why that is so. :) as the famous technical trader william o'neal said “the two most dominant emotions that dominate the market is fear and hope.” said but for me the best approach is to buy low and sell high because its the one that makes the most sense. :) if you are a technical investor i believe that this is the best time to buy shares because as of last friday the market has indicated that there was follow-through buying and it has triggered a rally and it is just in time for the santa claus rally that usually happens every december and january. How far the market will go up we'll never know and only time will tell. :) good luck on all your trades this december. :) God bless and take care. :)
p.s. If the market does rally we might as well call it the trillanes rally than the santa claus rally! :)