a memorable weekend

I had a really wonderful weekend and one of the most memorable at that. :) prepared a surprise treat for my friend alan last friday night and the the boys had one hell of a party and then the next day my dad and i had dinner with mr colayco (author of “wealth within your reach”) and discussed things related mostly to business. :) we got mr colayco as our financial consultant for our business so the whole sunday my family and me were with him. To straighten out some things and to find solutions to some problems and on how to strengthen and protect the business and talk about things that are related to business. :) i really admire mr colayco because i always believe that the best solutions to solve problems are always the simple ones. :) he advised us on what course to take to solve some problems and the beauty is that he gave us simple answers to our problems. :) a very smart guy but he doesnt flaunt his intelligence or make you feel dumb when you talk to him. He is a very humble and helpful person. :) And what i like best about our talk was that somehow he made my dad believe that the stock market is not gambling after all! :) hehehe ive been trying to convince my dad and the rest of my family to invest in the stock market for almost four years already and i cant get through him but just one afternoon with mr colayco and now he is kinda open to the idea of investing in the stock market. :) and our talk with mr colayco further strengthened my resolve about value investing. And i will quote his words “dont mind the weather, know the climate” in other words think long-term. Dont mind the daily fluctuations in price and look at the prospects of the company of what it can achieve in five years or more. :) its just what i posted here around december i think. And im so happy that we both share the same sentiments. If you dont have any knowledge in stocks the next best thing to do is to invest in mutual funds. I believe he mentioned philequity (you guys should love me this is a free advertisement!). And we discussed the most lively part of our talk. How to invest your excess cash. :) and he suggested to put it in equities or in equity mutual funds and let the power of compounding work for you and leave it for as long as 30 or even up to 50 years. :) and i also did the math and our figures are not really far from each other. :) if you invest P240,000 in a mutual fund or stocks and add P12,000 every year for five consecutive years and just leave it and let the money compound here is what you will get.

At 12% compounded per annum. Your total cash outlay is P300,000

in 10 years you will have P850,042.65

in 20 years you will have P2,640,103.44

in 30 years you will have P8,199,760.54

in 40 years you will have P25,467,211.59

in 50 years you will have P79,097,293.59

at 20% compounded per annum. Your total cash outlay is P300,000

in 10 years you will have P1,708,221.73

in 20 years you will have P10,576,858.68

in 30 years you will have P65,489,121.14

in 40 years you will have P405,491,376.64

in 45 years you will have P1.008,992,302.32 welcome to the billionaires club

in 50 years you will have P2,510,695,725.72

at 21% compounded per annum. Your total cash outlay is P300,000

just to show you the difference what 1% could mean to your portfolio.

In 10 years you will have P1,850,814.71

in 20 years you will have P12,451,355.84

in 30 years you will have P83,766,495.80

in 40 years you will have P563,539,096.23

in 50 years you will have P3,791,209,241.23

can you see what a difference of 1% can do to your portfolio over time??? who would think that a difference of 1% in your portfolio would mean having over P1billion more in your portfolio after 50years. :) value investing works and compounding is a very good ally.

i wouldnt be surprised if mr colayco himself has a value investing portfolio with very good returns but he said that hes only into investing thru mutual funds. :) the key is patience and being able to detach yourself from the everyday happening of the market. I believe i wrote about an article about compounding around december of 2006 you could also read that if you like. :) and as mr colayco also said to profit from the stock market you should be able to take advantage of other people's mistakes. Buy when someone is selling cheap and sell if someone is buying expensive. :) in other words being a value investor also means being a contrarian. :)

a warrant of arrest was just issued to the two main suspects of the tan massacre in january last year here in iloilo. The two main suspects were the children of the father from his first marriage. This is really tragic and i hope that everything will be resolved soon and that truth will prevail. Let us be thankful for all the blessings we received. God bless everyone. good luck. :)

roller coaster week

What a roller coaster week! :) looking at technical data i still believe that the rally is still in place. Up to what level it will reach i really couldnt tell but from what i see i think its still ongoing. :) well what can i say about my week. It has been kind of a roller coaster too! Work and all then with a little bit of pleasure playing basketball. And then gave a surprise to a friend who really enjoyed it. :) hehehe so whats the latest in the investing world??? universal robina corporation (urc) will be included in the new psei index on may 16, 2007! yahoo! This might Just bE the news that this “laggaRd” has been waiTing for?!!?! it needs to break around the P20-P20.50 range to break its downtrend. :) it looks like that our economy is really in full swing right now. With the very big and significant investments in real estate we could somehow see that maybe this is for real. All the big players are in like the ayalas, lucio tan, megaworld, henry sy to name a few. :) and theres this property here in iloilo thats up for bidding which was our old airport. I wonder who really wants it but i believe that mr sy is the one who wants it the most for it is very near an sm mall and the is the new thrust of smdc building residential spaces near sm malls. :) gold and other precious metals are now really going up in price and i suggest to you to start buying jewelry for your wife or loved ones before the price of gold reaches $1,000 per ounce! :) and with the increase of the prices of metals this might also spark our mining sector here. Phew! And of course the stock that i recommended keppel philippines marine (kpm) which was suppose to be a valentines gift for readers of chiefstocks has made a meteoric rise the last few days. :) and if you bought it at 0.94 you have already more than a 50% return but as ive said there is still value in this company. Time will be the one that will unlock its true value we just have to be patient. :) things are really looking good for our economy but dont be overconfident for the market fears no one and if you are careless you will surely get burned! With diligence there is still value to be found in the market. Remember the three p's in investing: patience, patience and patience. Good luck to everyone. :) happy birthday charlene! :) god bless

crazy mr market

Is the market irrational? Is the market bipolar? :) what do you think? We can see it all happening in front of our very eyes! :) the first two trading days of the week the market went up more than 1% each day and then what happens? It drops more than 1% tsktsktsk is that suppose to be rational??? i bumped into my broker the other day and he told me that the market has forgotten the china sell-off and that includes him too hehehe i remember him telling me a few weeks ago to liquidate my shares but i refused to do so. Now do you think im crazy??? hehehe but my broker is a short term trader or a chartist and from his point of view that was the right thing to do and if i look at it from that point of view he gave me the right advice but i look at my shares of stock in a long term perspective thats why i didnt sell them. :) i really admire my broker spyfrat because he is one of the best at what he does. people really have a short memory span after a month they are all at it again!?!?! can anyone please explain to me if thats rational!!!!! anyway it really doesnt matter just always remember to buy low and sell high! :) volatility is your friend! :) i really believe that. As mr. Buffett said investing is like a baseball game but there are no strikes being called. :) meaning you dont have to buy anything that you dont like. :) just buy something when you really like it. :) nobody is forcing you to buy a stock at a certain price so if thats the case then just wait for it to drop to the price that you want. :) when you do that you lessen the chances of making a mistake. As the master investor said investing is about making as little mistakes as possible! :) anyway there are still cheap stocks in the market and one that im going to discuss right now is fil-estate(LND). Trading at the range of 0.80 to 1.00 :) this is a really cheap stock selling at a very big discount right now!!! around 70%-80% imagine that?but still im having doubts of buying the stock. Because i believe that one very important requirement of a good stock and giving you back superior returns is good management. And no offense meant i really dont have a very high regard for its management. So as of the moment even though holy week is over i think im going to abstain from LND. hehehehehe I will quote again my idol warren buffett “i would rather buy a great company for a fair price than buy a good company for a great price.” good luck guys. :) the nba playoffs are now fast approaching!!! :)

carlo ponzi

As i promised im going to write an article about what a ponzi scheme is. This is taken from marc faber's book tomorrow's gold pages 176-178.

in fact, every mania involves some sort of Ponzi scheme. Carlo ponzi was a swindler who, in 1920, devised something akin to a chain letter, whereby early investors were paid out of money invested by late buyers. Ponzi promised to pay 50% interest for the use of 45 days' deposits, based on a strategy to arbitrage international postal union coupons bought with depreciated exchange rates abroad and to exchange them at higher fixed exchange rates for US stamps (for which coupons could be redeemed) in the us. The scheme was purely fictitious. Ponzi took in close to us$8million, but had only us$61 worth of stamps in his office when arrested. His “pyramid” scheme, the success of which depended on attracting new depositors at an ever-accelerating rate, collapsed when a number of depositors began to suspect that they wouldn't get their money back and attempted to withdraw their funds.

Ponzi schemes resurface from time to time in emerging economies where a sufficiently large number of naive people can be found who believe that 50% returns on short-term deposits can be achieved. However, it is a fact that for most investments, sooner or later, early buyers will be paid out by late buyers. This would seem to be particularly true in the case of investment booms and manias, which require a large number of participants to fuel and maintain the upward price momentum. The boom ends when the amount of money flowing into the popular investment theme starts to decelerate, as buyers become suspicious about the sustainability of positive returns, or when the supply eventually exceeds the demand. Thus, the early buyers of us stocks in the 1920's, 1960's and 1990's did well, while the latecomers were badly burnt by the subsequent market declines. The same was true of the gold and silver booms, and of the japanese stock market bubble in the 1980's.

In fact, i would argue that one of the principal features of an investment bubble is the existence of a giant ponzi scheme. Entrepreneurs no longer start businesses with the objective of achieving recurring profits from their investments, but rather seek to set up ventures in order to flog them off to speculators through IPOs and secondary offerings. At the same time, investors almost totally abandon the concept of investing according to strict value criteria and real economic merit. Instead they purchase stocks solely because they figure that, as more and more people join the investment party, someone - “the greater fool” - will be willing to pay an even higher price than they did for their stocks.

Ponzi schemes raise some fascinating questions.why are so many people repeatedly fooled by them? And why did carlo ponzi's scheme fail in less than a year, while other similar schemes have lasted so much longer? Investors get caught again and again in ponzi-type chains because of the very high returns they promise. Had carlo ponzi promised to pay a return of only 2% in 45 days' deposit (102% annually), no one would have bothered to invest with him. But with the promise to pay 50% for such a deposit (162,450% annually), he was able to attract quite a sum, considering that he was operating only from boston. His main problem was the regional scope of his scheme. Had he been able to operate globally with the support of cnbc, cnn, internet chatrooms and a variety of questionable stock advisory services, his operation could have flourished for much longer. The money flows that financed his operation would have continued for as long as the incoming funds were sufficient to pay out the redeeming investors. And the longer this had continued, the more confident the investing crowd would have become in the merits of his financing skills, possibly to the extent of attracting even central banks to invest their reserves with him. Morever, ponzi's promised returns were such that even if interest rates had risen 10% per annum, they wouldn't have jeopardised his scheme. It was his inability to raise money fast enough and the loss of investors' confidence that brought him down.

Now suppose that ponzi had reinvested himself. Instead of a questionable character operating regionally in boston and promising to pay 50% for 45 days' deposits, we have the credible and proven capitalistic system and alan greenspan as well as the us treasury guaranteeing that every time there is a crisis there will be a bail-out – as was the case in mexico, asia, ltcm and most recently brazil. Thus, the system and alan greenspan, and not carlo ponzi, were vested by the global investing public with the power to underwrite a 20% per annum return for the us stock market, as was the case from 1982 to 2000. even better, the system and greenspan, supported and cheered on by the media, were believed to guarantee an almost 100% annual gain from investing in a basket of technology stocks, which was the return of the nasdaq 100 a few years leading up to the march 2000 (up nine times in five years and almost four times from 1998 to 2000).

a ponzi scheme may not fly with a 20% guaranteed annual return, but a sure 100% return is a tempting proposition for any investor. So, for as long as the nasdaq could sustain these returns, ebullient investors reallocated more and more money from conservative investments such as short-dated bonds, money market funds, cds, abd even value stocks, into the high-tech sector. Even rising interest rates cannot derail this process, because the returns promised by a ponzi scheme are so much higher than interest rates.

The breaking point, however, is reached when insufficient new money flows into the market, or the supply of equities begins to exceed the demand, and investors start to experience significant capital losses. Only when this happens do investors lose confidence and scramble for the exit, bringing about a meltdown. This was apparent in the us when, in 1999, a total of 555 companies went public (an all-time record) and raised us$73.6 billion. But that us$73.6 billion represented only 27% of tge issuing companies' market caps. In 2000, however, the lock-up period for most of these issues expired and, in addition to the then prevailing heavy new-issue calendar (in early 2000, there were weeks when new issues raised over us$8 billion), insiders were able to sell more than us$200 billion of previously locked-up shares.

holy week reflection

It was a very busy, stressful and at the same time rewarding week for me. Last sunday afternoon i had coffee with my very good and close friend charlene. :) and we spent the whole afternoon discussing about religion. :) she is a born again christian and im a catholic but we didnt argue, we just discussed how she came to be a born again because she was a catholic before also. I respect her decision to convert for each one has to find his or her path to grow spiritually. i really enjoyed that talk of ours and maybe i do hope that some day she'll go back to the catholic faith but if that doesnt happen it really doesnt matter because what really matters in the end is our faith and if we believe in our one true God. :) its always nice to talk to a smart lady. :) monday was a very busy day for me with my parents going to baguio i had to attend to some of their work so it was a very busy day indeed and then a friend of mine called and asked if he was interested in an investment. Here are the terms of the investment and ready yourself. 30% interest on your money in 10days! Is that even possible? I cant find any legal business that could give you those kind of returns in that short span of time. Is it possibly a ponzi scheme? for those of you who are still not familiar with what a ponzi scheme is i'll write about it in the near future. That was the first kind of investment of that nature that i encountered this year and just a little word of advice when there are a lot of ponzi schemes going around already that means that the end of the bull market is near already. It means that the market is now overheating and usually during bear markets there are little or even no get rich quick schemes. :) so that means that we have nothing to worry about right now and that the market is still healthy. :) and on monday evening i had dinner with charlene again in sbarro then met my cousin for coffee and the same time she entrusted some of her money to me to invest. :) well i just told her that its a long term investment and shes okay with it. :) i will really try to do my best to give my fund the best returns possible. :) my minimum target for returns is 15% which mean double your money in five years and four times your money in 10 years. But of course thats just the minimum i target more than 20% :) my fund will be 3 years old on june 24 this year and more or less the fund has been earning 6.41% per month that is as of march 31, 2007 since i started this fund and i could say that its still growing and im still learning everyday. :) i just hope my fund is going to grow someday and be one of the big boys in our market. Well as of the moment that is just a dream. :) i just hope that some day my dream will come true. :) i think i can say that ive done a good job so far because i have beaten the returns of the psei for that is the only benchmark that i try to beat. And im thankful that ive beaten it so far. :) i thank the lord for all the blessings and the guidance, my family for always being there, friends for cheering me up when times were tough for me, spyfrat for helping me out in investing even though were on the opposite sides if the spectrum when it comes to investing but has opened my eyes and my mind to a different approach in investing and it has helped me a lot, charlene for being patient and understanding when im dificult. Let us not forget to thank the lord for all the blessings we've received and let us not forget the ultimate sacrifice the Lord has made for all of us. :) god bless to everyone this holy week.

first quarter review

The first quarter is finally over and we saw some drama with the global sell-off which started in china but nothing to worry about were still here. The psei went as high as 3,400 but fell sharply due to the sell off and i think in a way i could also say that it was a correction. :) the market's rise this year was kinda meteoric and i would say the correction put the market back in its place. What happened to my little fund this quarter??? well i didnt sell anything even though with all that panic and everything. I bought shares in kpm for its low price and strong fundamentals of the company. That was my only buy this quarter. :) im thinking of adding to my shares in urc. :) i like what ali has in plan for its expansion and also meg which just shows how bullish they are in our economy. :) im still awaiting news for the subsidiary of v, yehey, when they will have their ipo. Jfc has now started to show its true potential and it is now reflected in the share price. :) im also still bullish in ubp, mbt, epci, bpi and of course asia. :) i believe that sgi is still undervalued and could increase its share price by at least 50% still! :) and of course ans is still steadily rising up and with the company continuing to buyback its own shares Just mEan good things foR The company. The market went up by 7.41% since the start of the year and i could say that it is very commendable and i could say rational increase. :) my fund is up by almost 20% since the start of the year and im happy with that because i beat the psei for that is the only gauge to my performance. :) i know tsupiteros or short term traders are having a field time right now with the market conditions being very bullish. :) and i wouldnt be surprised if they are having returns of 50% or more. :) but thats okay i will still stick with my game plan. :) my friend eric just told me to look more into a certain stock and i thank him for doing so for i have found out the company is even more undervalued than i thought. Im going to write about it next time when i can see the true potential and value. And im also thankful to spyfrat for he has pointed me again in the right direction in finding value stocks there are two more that i have to research on. So that means im going to write about three different companies next time. Ill write about the three musketeers next time. :) patience, patience and patience that is the name of the game.
I have a story to tell about life and this could also be connected with value investing. A child asked his father, “why do i need to be humble?” then the father said “when you choose the lowly path, there is no place to fall and the only way is up.” good luck to all of you. Good bless. :)

thailand and the stock market

Was in thailand with friends just the other weekend and what can i say? I really enjoyed the vacation with friends, a chance to get to know them better in a different environment and a chance to get away from all the work and stress. Just seeing the development and the progress in the place just makes you think what should we do to improve the image and the economy in the philippines?!?!?! the groundwork for success in our economy has been laid out by the present administration but the question is... will it go on after president gma steps down from office? These are questions that we cant answer for now but what we have to appreciate right now is that the fundamentals of the stock market is very solid and now is a good time to invest for the long term. But what if the market goes down together with the global sell-off? Well i myself will buy more value stocks and hold them for the long term. :) you must be thinking if im crazy to buy in this kind of environment which is erratic. Well this started last february 28, 2007 when there was a sell-off in shanghai which triggered a global sell-off and of course our beautiful country was also affected after the psei almost reached the 3,400 level. Short term traders say that the trend is your friend and i wont argue with that for it is true but sometimes when you look at the bigger picture investing for the long term is also advantageous in a lot of ways. Less work in a way that you dont have to monitor the market everyday. :) and less commissions to pay because you have lesser transactions. :) for the last year of trading why not check how many transactions did you make and how much did you profit and how much did you pay for commission. :) you'll be surprised at how much you pay your broker. :) but anyway ive already posted my reasons a few weeks ago why the stock market will continue to trend up for the long term. Volatility is not bad if you just have to use it to your advantage. As i've said the market is irrational and whenever the market is in a good mood and sells stocks at a bargain take the as a chance to buy and when the market is feeling generous and would be willing to buy your stock at a premium than its value then take that as a chance to sell! :) the best way to protect yourself from volatility and big drops in prices is to buy stocks at a cheap price. I guess thats your best protection from price drops because the buying stocks cheap most of the time is usually buying them near the bottom. :) being a value investor means a few things an arbitrageur, a bargain hunter, a contrarian and a patient man. I believe we are one-third or one-half in the markets bullish cycle. It wont be easy thats why you have to learn to detach yourself from the daily happenings in the market. We'll get there we just need time and patience. :)

mr sy #1

Henry sy is the richest person in the philippines in the last ranking by forbes magazine. Let us now dissect on why that is so. :) mr sy or tatang as he is fondly called started started in the shoe business and then sm department store. :) he built his first sm mall in 1983 in north edsa and was instantly a hit. He built the mall during a time of uncertainty and unrest with the killing of benigno “ninoy” aquino and the unstable political situation at that time. But as the man said “times of distress bring about opportunity”. Any good value investor will agree with that saying for it is during those times that you will be able to able to buy stuff or companies at a discount. :) for my henry sy sm prime holdings is his anchor or core business. :) it might be true that he is diversified but his main business is still smph. That is where it all started and from there he started putting capital into other businesses. No matter what happens he will never leave smph. In other words his other businesses are his sideline. :) the key is putting good managers in your other businesses so that they could run it for you. Delegation in other words. Smph will always be his favorite and he will always look after it. :) so that is one trait that is usually common among successful value investors which warren buffett would call “focus investing”. Not to be diversified is also wrong because is you put all your money all in one investment that would now be called gambling. For me a portfolio to be diversified should have at least 5 investments and not more than twenty (20). :) i will give you some data that i got from reliable sources on how good mr sy's core business is and how it catapulted him into the top spot. Smph is forced to open new malls because it generates around P20billion yes thats right billion just from rent every month. :) you just keep that much cash just lying in the bank you have to use it to get better returns. :) smph charges a premium for rent and why not? Being the leading mall in the country it has the right to do so. It doesnt even charge rent but also percentage from gross sales in some businesses. But who complains? Nobody because that is the price you have to pay to get a piece of the sm crowd. :) and even before the mall opens it already will get millions just from the advance deposit of its tenants already so basically they already have money to use to run the mall! :) such a great business. Mr sy has! Even if it opens in a place and its department stores wont do that well smph will still collect rent and what is the worry because every time sm opens a new malls it has followers from its consignors, jollibee, kfc, chowking, national bookstore, and many more. :) so basically it has already tenants when it opens a new mall. :) compared to other malls in the country this one appeals to all classes from the a to d market. :) sm has this kind of command in its rent and everything else because there is no close competition and in the absence of that smph will Just continuE to gRow and increase iTs market share! :)

inspirational words in these trying times

“a pessimist sees the difficulty in every problem, an optimist sees the opportunity in every problem” - winston churchill

“the ticker is there as a reference to see if someone is offering something foolish” - warren buffett

please stay calm

Its another bloody day and in general its been really a bloody week in the philippine stock market but the way i look at it since december 2006 the rise of the market has been meteoric and i believe what we got is a long overdue correction. Just like a car it needs maintanance every once in awhile. Every 5,000km a change oil and when it reaches 20,000km a tune up and it is no different in the market. We have an economy that is growing and were in the part of the world, asia, where emerging superpowers are in the making and with the us already showing signs of a slowdown and surprisingly an even an admission on their part that they are about to go into a recession! :) actually i even think that the admission of the us about their economy and the china sell off set all of this off. :) if you read my past articles i have stated that asia will boom and the us will go into a recession by 2010 and i still stand by with what i said. This is just one of the things that you got to endure when youre investing. This is what i was telling my friend, nico, last week “dont track the market and dont watch is too closely you have to be detached with whats happening in the market on a day to day basis” here are some of the quotes that i got from my friends about what happened in the market last week and the general condition of the market.
Spyfrat a chartist and short term trader - “down! Its the start of the bear market. The market has disciplined us for it has spoiled us for some time already im out and ill wait in the sidelines.”
bruce a technical trader and short term trader, the boss of financemanila - “cash is king. Ive been getting a lot of “what to do questions apparently from the 95% of those who did not heed my advice to lighten up on the market before the market spiralled downwards. If you joined the market late last year, this rout should only be taking a small cut from your overall equity. But if you joined the market this year my prayers are with you. It may be too late to cut right now for there is a for there is a slight support base (trendline created from june 2006)awaiting near 2,950-2,960. however if we do get a technical bounce from that level, any really from that point should be your cue to sell. How big a rally, how long?i dont know because we are going to paint the chart with this new short term downtrend. it is yet to be created and measured. I gauge this to be a “lower high rally” a rally with a lower peak much lower than the one created at 3,417. after a series of lower highs and lower lows the index may see itself at ultimate uptrendline support(created 2003)near 2,600 or there abouts. we'll talk about it when the time nears, if at all. However in between the trendline supports of 2,950-2,600 there are recent low supports at the following levels 2,830 2,746, 2,520 (opps yes thats below 2,600 already)
nico a speculator who is interested in long term investing - “whether we like it or not the philippine market is hinged in the us as we are heavily dependent o foreign investors. Big picture in global economy and stock confidence can affect us directly.”
joey a friend also investing in stocks - “i believe this is only temporary”
eric a trader and long term investor - “the drop still seems healthy. Prices seem to be at fair value with select issues being a bit undervalued. Long term upside indicate good upside at current levels”
jerty a friend interested in the stock market - “oh my... well it dropped 200points, a lot of people were worried but president arroyo said theres nothing to worry about, its a normal trend in the market and what happened was just cause and effect”
volatility is part of investing in the market. Just like getting punched in a boxing match. It is part of the game. To protect yourself from big drops in the market the solution is to get the stock at rock bottom prices or when it is for sale! :) just like when you go shopping how would you react if you hear this from you wife/girlfriend “oh sweetey im dying to but this bag cause the store is selling it 50% its usual selling price”then i wont blame you if you tell her this “YOUR CRAZY!” but if she tells you that “baby i want to buy that bag and i want to buy it now cause it selling at 30% off its usual tag price.” now thats logical and that makes your partner just “half-crazy” hehehe just this morning my friend joey texted me to ask if i got out of the market already and i replied “nope :)” and he was surprised that i could even smile. Hehehehe and my friend nico also asked if im out of the market already and i Just rEplied “i havent even seen the tickeR yeT for today.” the point im driving at is that invest in the company and not the market. :) if you get a stock of a good company at a fair price then there is no reason to panic. :) even my portfolio took a beating too it drop around 14pts but as i said its all part of the game. But i have stocks of good companies and luckily i got it at a good price so thats the reason why i not yet selling. if you look at price movements in a a shorter span of time the more volatile it is but looking at it in a longer span of time it is less volatile. Everybody has a opinion on the market what it will do and why it will react that way but in the end it is Just all about invEsting in good companies when it is selling at a laRge discounT. My advice just be on the look out for good companies that are selling at a discount and be prepared to hold them for years. :) no reason to panic friends :) god bless.

investing in love. . .

Being in love and the stock market? Are there any similarities? Can you use the same principles of in trading or investing to the game of love? To get a good stock you have to be patient and of course you need time and capital for that. Im not being materialistic here but i am just trying to point out the similarities between the two! for value investing way of thinking Well one you should devote a lot of time to the girl, court her, bring her flowers, give her chocolates, call her(youre gonna burn a lot of prepaid cards for this) and text her. You have to be there when she needs you and even if she doesnt need you! The price you have to pay to be a guy! Tsktsktsk so thats capital and time or if you want to call it commitment. Just like in stocks and especially value investing you have to be committed to owning the stock of the company for years in order to see its true potential! Again id like to quote mr warren buffett “when owning a good stock time is your best friend, but when owning a bad stock time is your worst enemy!” phew! How i wish this was true in real life. But sad to say that its different because as they say it takes a lifetime to get to know a person! After 5years of getting married you just found out that your partner is a cleptomaniac, or an ax murderer, or a nymphomaniac(this could actually be beneficial for you in some ways hehe), or maybe after how many years of being together you just found out that the kid you claimed as your own is not really yours after all! Isnt that tragic if you find that out? In stocks these risks are also present but.... you can minimize it by careful study and research. Or if you want you can be a tsupitero or a short term trader! Hehehe what does that mean? Meaning you jump from one relationship to the next after you take profit. :) in real life what does that make you? Hehehe a swinger? Hehehe in short term trading you look for volume in the stock to be able to push up the price of the stock. In real life you need good looks and smooth talking to be able to get the girl you desire in a short span of time and after achieving your objective you could now get out of the relationship and find your next target! :) but one thing is common for the value investor and tsupitero lover you need to find the right time to find the right girl and approach her. :) in life everything happens for a reason but the problem is that we dont know the reason why! Tsktsktsktsk life its just so complicated! :) but that is what makes life so beautiful! :)

the next problem is how to find the right partner. You can have certain criterias for stocks like it has a low price/earnings ratio, high volume, big caps, blue chip, dirt cheap and whatever qualities you like. You could also have certain qualities that you look for in your partner but the question is that it doesnt mean that you have found the qualities that you look for in your partner it doesnt mean that your relationship with him/her will work out. Thats the sad part in the game of love..... you might have found the perfect partner but it doesnt mean that you have found the perfect pair..... it takes more than Just lovE to make a RelaTionship work, but well we must admit that love makes everything easier for how can one be patient if he/she doesnt love their pair? :) the conclusion is this in the end being in a relationship is about commitment and not about love. For the human brain and feelings are so complex that you cant quantify it. Its not like earnings of companies, the assets of companies or the obligations of companies for these things can be quantified or be given value. We never know whats going on in a person's mind or the feelings that one would like to express for if we do then all relationships wouldnt have any problems then. :) some of the things needed to make a better partnership are trust, love, patience and respect. When all the things mentioned are present a relationship will have a better chance of surviving and will have a positive impact in the lives of the persons involved! :)

spyfrat's corner

Im here in the office again and peter is taking pictures of jewelry again. His yummy friend sofie will pick him up in a little while. The other day my friend oskie told me of an investment scheme in the internet. 1% a day investment kind. So i asked myself is it worth the risk? If a business earns more than 5% a month that may be enough reason to question if that business is legal in the first place! :) it might be a ponzi scheme type of investment. Ill write about that in the next articles. Ill try to do more research or get a story from a book and ill print it here for you guys. :) by the way oskie almost made it to pinoy big brother but its okay for everything happens for a reason! :) it would have been fun if he made to the show we already plans on what to do to help him win! :) hehehe

so now lets talk about business its a bloody week in the stock market which was triggered by the china sell-off. It is a sign of things to come for china. China will be a force to be reckoned with someday! I am still confident that our market will still do good this is Just onE of the obstacles an investoR must go Through. :) “you are looking at the tree unmindful of the forest” that is what we must avoid as a value investor. Always think long term! :) i believe that our market is still ok and of course china will still continue to be a dominant force in asia and the world. I will put an added extra to all of you every once in awhile. Ill let you see whats inside the portfolio of my friend spyfrat who i believe is one the best chartists in the country. As he would always say “ignore the news” that is so because he puts his faith in charts. :) to quote spyfrat “im into pcp, ict, ipvg and avoid blues” good luck to all in these trying times in our market. :)

up up and away!

Its almost lunch time and im really hungry already im here at home assisting and watching peter and sofie taking pictures of jewelry because this will be needed for a new line which is being requested by sm. I think one day will not be enough! Phew! :) thats how powerful sm is... they say one thing and all of its tenants and consignors follow. Thats how powerful the sm brand is. :) but anyway there's a topic that popped into my mind and i should really write about with the meteoric rise in the philippine stock market! :) im going to cite some reaons why the market will continue trending up! But of course i cannot speculate at what point the market will peak. :) but i do know that it will continue going up believe you me! :) hehehe so here are some of the reasons:

1. t-bills are at a record low! Only at 2.88% which means that fundies would be forced to get their money out of t-bills and put it in other instruments that would yield a higher return! And now that stocks are really hot right now and it could give fund managers a higher return!!! :) so meaning funds will now shift from interest bearing instruments to equities!

2. Since last year there has now been strong foreign interest in our market and foreign buying will really be a big boost to the volume in our market. I also see that the american economy and stock market will experience a downturn before 2010 which mean that funds will shift from the us to asia and i know that the philippines will be one of the beneficiaries in the shift of funds in the world market.

3. We have a stronger peso as of the moment and that would mean that we would have better financial positions for our philippine companies because most of them have US dollar loans which would mean less liabilities for companies. :)

4. the emergence of asia and of china. A stronger asia would mean more money going in the area and of course the philippines will surely get a slice out of the pie. :)

5. when election comes maybe the stock market will surely take a blow but as they say you cannot keep a good man down! :) let us put in mind the gma will still be our president after the elections and other world leaders respect and would want gma to be the one to lead our country. :) if erap would be our president maybe i myself would sell all my holdings in the stock market and migrate to some other country! Hehehehe

with a few of the reasons that i have mentioned i hope you wont be scared or fear that the stock market will collapse any time soon. :) we are still in good hands. Remember that patience is the key to success in the stock market! :) just be patient there are still bargains to be found in the market. Good luck and god bless! :)

love after valentines day

after valentines day i did a lot of thinking. . . i really miss the feeling of being in love. i dont know why but this past few months i buried myself in work maybe so as to forget the heartaches that i've had in my life. i have come to the conclusion or accepted that i already may have lost the love of my life. "you can never teach a guy to love you the way you want to be loved... you have to wait for him to do it in his own way, in his own time... that's the saddest part of being a girl... but you can never teach a girl to love the guy back the way she did before if she already grew tired and fed up understanding and waiting to be appreciated and loved the way she deserves to be loved... thats the saddest part of being an insensitive man." how i wish i could Just turn back timE and i know the tuRn back Time and i know that things would be really different. i had this really huge crush on a friend of mine when i was in college and i remember we really talked a lot and stuff and with some stroke of luck we bumped into each other again after how many years. we talked and talked and talked. finally she asked me how my life is and i asked her about hers also and in the end she confided that her marriage was falling apart and she wants out. i made me wonder if i was brave enough before and pursued her would i have been able to make her happier? should i even entertain those kind of thoughts? i believe that the girl that i really loved before has started to hate me already and who would want to be in a relationship where your partner hates you? :( is it time that i realized that i deserved to be loved more? that i should be in a relationship where my partner truly loves me? i realy dont know as of the moment i guess we Just havE to let time take its couRse and leTs see what happens. but what if the girl that i should be with is with someone else? what should should i do? should i try to win her? should i just rather go back and work my ass off??? should i be a knight in shining armor ready to rescue the damsel in distress? i believe it takes a lot to make a relationship work and love alone is not enough. everybody deserves to be happy. is it even possible for a married woman to be in love with another guy? and what is the best gauge to know if that woman truly loves that guy and is not just a rebound guy? i know that right woman is out there waiting for me i Just havE to be bold enough and appRoach her and The rest will just happen. . .

being in love and the stock market

as of the moment i think im in love with the stock market because it is making great waves and if you are a long term investor it does wonders to your portfoio! :) as warren buffett said "i got rich doing nothing" :) one of the greatest buy and hold investors of our time said this because it is in the sitting that you will earn a lot. :) i remember when i started really disecting and understanding the market the market went as low as 1,100 imagine that and as of the moment it even went over 3,350 just lately! what does this mean???? if you invested in the phisix when it was at the 1,1oo level and just held to all those stocks your portfolio would would have been three times bigger by now! wow thats a lot :) and thats a very good return! phew! asia has been making great waves and not just that but a tsunami at that! i can see the faces of those investors who got stocks before and just held to it! :) i remember i wrote about this company a few months ago and how its stock was so undervalued. i just hope to the people who were able to read the article and got the stock they wouldve gotten a 100% return in just a few months! thats good returns man! :) the market might take a beating once in a awhile but with how it performed lately and all the foreign money coming in i believe that this trend will continue and the market will keep on going up. :) the key in this game is patience. the key to success in investing is not making bold moves but making bold moves when the odds are in your favor and the downside is very very very small! :) i always remind myself of what mr buffett said "the stock market is just like playing baseball but the only difference is that you are not called for strikes and you have all the freedom to wait for the pitch that you like and then take a swing at it" :) patience is the name of the game! :) asia is making great moves and technically it would seem to me it can make a good oush to P20 and beyond lets just wait and see. :) then theres my diamond in the rough! KPM a very solid stock which just made a new new high and maybe just maybe foreingers will start buying the stock already :) theres EPHI also another undervalued stock. theres also v which is undervalued and also reached a new high just a few days ago. even in this rising market there are still value stocks waiting for us out there. :) good luck!

analysis of chief's portfolio :)

im really happy right now :) not because it was valentines day yesterday but because the market has been really upbeat right now and it is helping in giving better returns in my portfolio or in other words i am just riding the big wave ala tsunami! hehehe it will be really interesting next few trading days in our stock exchange :) just remember when youre a short term investor cut your losses okay? so anyway looking back at my portfolio there are the stocks that are in it right now. ill be enumerating them chronologically. universal robina(urc), ayala land(ali), ivantage corporation(v), jollibee foods corporation(jfc), unionbank(ubp), alaska milk corporation(amc) but this is the only stock that i sold in my portfolio for i realized that its potential for growth is not that good and i bought it in a not so cheap price. Metropolitan bank and trust(mbt), sm development corporation(smdc), sm prime holdings(smph), far eastern university(feu), cebu holdings incorporated(chi), megaworld corporation(meg), bank of the philippine islands(bpi), solid group incorporated(sgi), equitable pci bank(epci), anscor(ans), asiatrust incorporated(asia), edsa philippines incorporated(ephi) and the only stock that i have bought this year keppel philippines marine incorporated(kpm). what i do is that i usually buy a stock and add to my position if the price will reach a level where there is very little downside and which in short it is very attractive and it is at this time that buying and holding will give you excellent returns :) i started building my value portfolio when i bought urc shares on june 24, 2004 and since then i have just addded other stocks and i am hoping that most of them will give me excellent returns. as warren buffett said "when holding a great stock time is your friend but when holding a bad stock time is your worst enemy"i hope you guys will take a lot at kpm for it is a very good company. and of course there is my beloved urc sure it took some blows but it it still standing. as they say you can never put a good man down. :) enjoy everybody! god bless

my diamond in the rough

My beloved my find in the philippine stock exhange is keppel philippines marine incorporated. :) i have been watching this stock closely for the last 9 months and trying to gather more information about it. All i can say is that this is a really stable company. :) to show how good the company is the philippines' richest man 'henry sy” owns almost 5% in this company. :) that convinced me. But a friend of mine ,jerome, audited the company a few years back and he had nothing but good words for the company. Thats what really convinced me to get shares in this company. Kpm has good and able managers who are mostly singaporeans which is understandable since the parent company keppel is based in singapore. :) then 40% of the work they do are from foreigners and from what i know they still have a lot of orders that are waiting to be started. Most of the year aboitiz and sulpicio ships are in their dry docks for repairs :) very solid company but its shares have been overlooked by the market for this is a very boring industry. May i remind everyone the kpm has the largest shipbuilding facility in the philippines. :) would'nt you want to invest in the leader of its industry. :) with the emergence of asia in the world market orders for more boats and ships will just keep on going in. :) i have started to accumulate shares in the company because i really like it.:) and on the technical side the stock will hit a new high when it touches P1.05 which is really not far where the stock price is right now and just maybe tsupiteros and foreign investors might go in and drive the price to P3! Hehehe but thats too much maybe P2 is more realistic but you never know because the market is irrational. :) i was planning to write about this after valentine's day but there have been some persistent requests from some of my friends that i reveal the mystery stock so finally i gave in to you guys! :) please remember to always to do your own research before buying any stock. :) good luck in all your trades! Remember the stock market is simple. BUY LOW AND SELL HIGH! :) hehehe thank you kirby! :) as warren buffett said “when holding a good stock time is your best friend but when holding a bad stock time is your worst enemy”

chief's stocks wish list

Hello again to everyone i would like to my stock wish list. . . i have talked to another trader friend of mine nico and he was the one who suggested that i make a stock list. He said that he enjoyed reading my blog and the one thing that he wants to see in here is a stock list. Maybe i could call it chief's stock list! :) there is really no problem with me sharing my thoughts to everyone but as nico said and i totally agree with him you subject yourself to criticism but its really okay i can take it all for the love of investing! As of the moment i like urc, asia, ephi, v, feu, sgi(net net value is 1.26), ephi and theres this one stock that i will tell everyone after valentines day for i am still trying to gather more information about the company. :) its really hard to find bargains in the market nowadays for theres this state of euphoria with all the money coming in the market with the lowering of treasury bill rates. God bless and good luck with your trades!!! :)

raging bull

The market is really bullish right now with consecutive 1% gains in a few days and despite a 3% drop last friday januarv26 but it still doesnt matter. It still shows that our market is really in a bullish mode with many foreigners joining the fun in our market. There are hardly any bargains in our market. But there are still a few and im really interested with this one find of mine. I will tell you about it in time for i am still gathering more info and data but it really looks promising. It can be the next urc, ict and smdc! :) for speculators you might like v! Its breakout point is at 1.70! :) very solid stock which is still undervalued as of now with the sale of its shares in ibank. :) just remember that being a value investor means being patient and waiting for the right opportunities. :)it is really a different discipline altogether being a value investor. It means being a marathon runner not being a sprinter and its harder than being a speculator. As they say “have faith that is all that matters” this applies when everything looks hopeless but you should still hold on to your research that your holding an excellent stock that could give you excellent returns in a few years time. A friend of mine gerthrode was able to read my blog and she requested that i write about how the stock market works. Basically its just a big marketplace where people buy and sell stocks. :) maybe ill write about it next time. Thank you so much for taking the time to read my blog. Take care everyone and good luck in all your trades. Market really looks bullish and i still cant believe it that after a few months that i wrote that the minimm upside of the market is 3,150 and now our market has breached it and it would seem to me that it is forming a new base. But i believe that our market will continue trending up. God bless :)

the bargain of the quarter!

Good day everyone! Hope all is well with you there. Another trader friend of mine just read this humble blog of mine today and im happy to say that he liked it. Unless he is lying to me. Hehehe but anyway my friend nico suggested that i should have my picks for the quarter for both fundamental and speculative investors. Well i do have to admit that i am really more of a fundamentalist but still i will try my best. For my fundamental pick of the month i really like urc! URC! At 18-19 per share it is a bargain. It was just announced today that its income for 2006 increased by 19%! that means more or less its eps is around 1.45-1.50 so it should really be trading around the 22-24 range based on its historical eps. :) this company is solid and i watched the interview of mr lance gokongwei this morning in bloomberg and what can i say?!?! the guy will take urc to new heights! With all due respect to mr john gokongwei who started it all but lance understands the needs of investors! He knows how to unlock shareholder value. Give him 5-10 years more he will really be a force to reckon with in the philippine industry!i like urc it has good management and it has great growth potential with its beverage division being its growth driver! :) i have to say that i love c2! :) as spyfrat and my friend rafael had lunch today the former confided to me. . . i really dont know f he is just trying to flatter me but when urc was already trading at around 5 i wanted to buy shares already but spyfrat discouraged me so i gave in but after a few weeks i really liked what i saw in urc and i really insisted that i should get shares so i was able to get some at 6.40 and i bought a few more after. He told me that i made him realize that gokongwei stocks are not that bad because he never liked gokongwei stocks. Hehehe so now he is also a believer! MR LANCE GOKONGWEI i hope youre reading this! Hehehe technically the minimum upside of urc is around P31 so i do hope that we get there. At its present price this is a bargain. I wouldnt be surprised if this shoots up to 30 or more. So this is my parting word to you all! See you at P30! HEHEHEHE btw there is this another stock that im studying it is also owned by a tycoon. It has very very good fundamentals i will tell you about it in a few weeks time because im still studying it!!!! :) god bless :)