death, taxes and rising prices

Im inclined to write another article about this one because i just cant stop myself from doing so and that i cant stop people around me from talking about it. :) how many times have we heard our elders talk.... “when i was still a kid coca-cola was only worth P0.10” or “when i was in high school batchoy was just just P0.30” or “when i was still in school my allowance was just P5.00 a week” or “your grandfather bought this lot for only P10.00 per square meter”. :) hopefully someday i can also say that.... “i first bought urc at P6.40 per share.” or “mbt was just selling for P25.00 per share when i started investing in stocks.” :) but these stories are all so true. :) they say that the two absolute things in life are death and taxes and i could say one of the ALMOST absolute things in life should be rising prices in almost all things. :) and that also applies with stocks but.......... only with quality stocks. As warren buffett said “when holding a great stock time is your best friend but when holding a bad stock time is your worst enemy.” When i say quality stocks they are the ones with a solid business with room for growth and at the same time they have solid and honest management :) but just because those two things are present in a company it doesnt that you'll buy them right away but you wait for them to drop to a certain price wherein you could get superior long term returns. :) but that is easier said than done because one of the hardest parts in investing is the waiting...... waiting for the right price that is. :) i have done some calculations of some basic stuff that we consume like coke has increased at an average of 8.25% per annum in the last 50 years and batchoy has increased at an average of almost 12% per year. :) which brings compounding back in my head. :) im a social smoker i must admit and i have to admit that the figures and future compounded returns or losses that is could drive me to stop smoking once and for all. Lets calculate here: if i smoke a ream of cigarettes every month with the cost of a ream for the sake of simplicity at around P300 which is P3,600 in a year. And now making assumptions here are the results. This will be the money that i lost if i had foregone smoking and instead invested it in stocks:
15% per annum in 15 years P29,293.42
in 20 years P58,919.53
in 25 years P118,508.23
in 30 years P238,362.38
20% per annum in 15 years P55,465.28
in 20 years P138,015.36
in 25years P343,426.38
in 30 years P854,554.73
this is the power of compounding to you at its finest. :) and i still havent mentioned the mounting medical bills because of heart, lung, bad gums, bad teeth, insomia, yellowish fingertips and a weaker immune system caused by smoking and not to mention that men are more prone to impotence when they smoke. Phew!!!! so in the end you will lose more than the figures that i mentioned above. :) again remember that health is wealth so dont kill yourself working for money. Enjoy it also every once in awhile. :) i have made up my mind to buy a nikon dslr the d80 model. But please i dont want to count the future income that i will lose if i buy this camera..... its my new hobby and you need to have a diversion every now and then. :) enjoy life but also be prudent. God bless you always and good luck with your investments. :)

green is the color of money

For so many years the man at the helm of the federal reserve was alan greenspan and the question that im going to ask everybody reading this blog is.... “is alan greenspan a genius or a fool?” genius because for so many years he was able to keep the american economy afloat or is he a fool because of too gimmickery that when after he left his post the economy had nowhere to go but down. :) as they say the higher you are the harder the fall. :) economies by nature are cyclical meaning there will be periods of prosperity and there will be periods of depression which is normal. :) just like life itself. :) but during his long term in office which if i remember correctly is over 20years there was hardly a very serious depression. And if i remember correctly the life cycle of an economy with a great upswing and a great downswing is about 30-50 years according to marc faber in his book but i have to check on that again. :) so the last great depression was in 1929, 1973 and possibly 1987 could be considered as well but the question is when is the next great depression? Could it be happening now? Time will tell. :) the federal reserve has been drastically cutting interest rates and it hasn't had any effect yet. (another point that my friend has been raising about greenspan is that if he raised interest rates a bit during his term the crisis wouldnt be this bad)  I have a little opinion or theory if you'd like to call it. Interest rates have been lowered so where are people putting there money? For sure its not in stocks and most likely it is also not in real estate because of the subprime mortgage mess. So where are the americans, investors and fundies putting their money? Possibly in assets outside the us and most likely in commodities which would explain the rise in prices. And could it be possible??? according to the charts, gold has a mimun upside of $1,250 and with this credit crunch fundamentally the us economy will stay down for a while and the most likely place that people will place their bets in would be commodities so hold on tight guys. :)






maybe you guys are wondering why i made a poll about jamby madrigal and pia cayetano. It was just an idea that came up when they had a cat fight in the senate. :) i voted for pia cayetano i have to admit(she's also cute by the way) but i didn't vote for jamby madrigal. What have they both done while they were in office. Jamby making the news for protecting a tree and pia cayetano for entering all those athletic races and stuff. I have to admit they both haven't done enough and i could say that more deserving people deserve to be there. Let your vote be counted. :) good luck on all you invesments. :) God bless. :)
p.s. For any comments, questions and suggestions please email me at compounder888@gmail.com
and a joke for all of you! What disease is the market suffering right now??? answer: beary-beary. :)

week in review

Before i start talking in this article of mine let us remember all the victims who lost their lives in the horrific 9/11 attack six years ago....
okay now lets get down to business, last week was a really bad week for me it was so bad that i decided to go to the barber and had almost all of my hair shaved!!! hehehe problems with business, work and i must admit in the arena of love. But anyway ive recovered and got back on my feet and this week is better for me. :) if its not better then i should make up reasons on why this week will be better for me. :) im just happy because ayala corporation just announced that they are doing a 2.5B stock buyback program!!! this just shows how confident the management is on the value of their company. :) im so happy i was able to get shares of a great company at a fair price. :) patience really does pay off sometimes. :) the week started out with me reading the articles of jack galt and ron nathan aka mr bearbull :) and im glad that somehow we share the same sentiments in some aspects. Mr bearbull and i agree that the us is really due for a recession and he also stated that maybe it might be safer to invest in emerging markets than the us. Ive said many times that i believe that there will be a shift of funds to asia from the us due to the recession. :) i think there will be more panic to follow because of the subprime problem that still lingers the only solution to that is to wait for bargains and just buy with what your comfortable with. :) im also glad that another analyst also likes jollibee which is a stock that i follow and i agree with him the jollibee is one company that will really reflect the boom that we are experiencing. :) just give jollibee some time and im sure the stock price will follow its increase in earnings. :) another topic that is of importance is the fed announcement on sept. 18. most likely the fed will lower interest rates so that they could calm investors and stabilize the economy. :) interest rates usually have a great effect on any economy lower it and assets will usually go up and increase interest rates and you might possibly see a slump in asset prices but the market is irrational and you never know what will happen. :) just expect the unexpected. :) remember....... money is never lost it is only transformed. :) hehehe happy trading to everyone and good luck. Sad to see erap go down but justice must be served. Tsktsk a group of friends and i are planning to put up a restaurant in binan, laguna can anybody here tell me the prospects there???? thanks :) god bless to everybody :)

explosive 1st year

I can still remember it so clearly, its like it was just yesterday i had the guts to start my own blog about finance, investing, business and everything else because i was inspired by some of the blogs that i read on the internet. Its been a year since i started chiefstocks with the mission to popularize value investing and help others do better at the stock market. :) i hope i have achieved this even in just a small way. :) value investing is here to make investing easier and makes sure that when you build your portfolio there is very little margin for error. Ive mentioned this lots of times in this blog investing is about making as little mistakes as possible. :) according to warren buffett the most important thing investing is not even about making money but not losing money. In other words, capital preservation because what is the point of earning money if you also lose it. :) i have learned a lot from the market, from other investors, from spyfrat, from ericgo, from raffy boy and from my idol warren buffett and though i might not be good in writing but i really do try my best to impart to all of you the things that i learn. :) a lot has happened over the past year, it started with the computer in our home, then after awhile i was able to buy a laptop of my own, then i became single, then the market “crashed” with the shanghai bubble, then i went on a vacation, then the market had a strong rally and reached 3,800 and a few weeks lost almost 25% the cause of the drop was the us subprime market concerns, then the fed lowers the interests rates and the us market stabilizes which also calms our market here so from the bottom of the drop the market has recovered almost 10% from its low with all that has happened im still here and fighting. Phew! What a year it has been and im looking forward to another with all of you. I still believe that the bull market is not yet over for the problem is in the us and not here. :) i expect the market to rally back to its previous levels and even go higher from there. Our market just needs some time. :) id just like to make a rundown of some of the things that i have mentioned for the last year. :) always remember that the market is irrational and it also has a short memory. One day it gains 5% and the next day it losses 8% it really doesnt matter for we can take advantage of the market volatility to our advantage. :) buy low and sell high. :) there are two things that will happen in the market: it will go up and it will go down. :) the up and down of the market is caused by market sentiments but always remember that behind all those stocks that are trading in the market are company valuations. :) this is where money is to be made if you are just patient enough to wait long enough for the inconsistencies that do occur every once in awhile. Like a few weeks ago i was forced to sell my shares in unionbank to make way for ayala corp because it was selling at bargain levels. :) i had to do this for i only limit my portfolio to up to 20 stocks. Now a comment on our market, after two weeks of heavy selling or maybe you could even call it panic and it was definitely a panic for why sell when our market is healthy. The market drop was a chance to get stocks of great companies at lower prices. After the fed in the us lowered the interest rates it calmed the us market and that sentiment was also embraced here and caused the market to rise a bit. After this week's trading im lead to believe that technically the market is going to make a rally but it is going to be a weak one. I know that some agree and some dont agree to some of the things that i say but as ive said that it is only my opinion and time is the best judge if im right or wrong. :) i hope that your portfolio is doing well in this very volatile market of ours. :) good luck on all your trades and God bless. :)