we all need lubricants!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

oil's is in its last parabolic leg. time analysis suggest it should end july til sep (max early oct) as base 3 (or the period covered by X) is only 10 months. in the sample chart of broadvision, the perfect parabolic curve of its X is also 10months and its last leg was due on the 8th time bar. on it's 9th time bar, broadvision broked the key reversal red trendline. im just fascinated by the resemblance of oil's parabolic with broadvision. unfortunately, prices cant be determine but if we use mathematical proportion we can guess. 

broadvision x = 90, high = 138 (did not doubled in percentage but the leg is shortest in percentage increase); gain = 53%

last leg parabolic started 138 to 192 within 8 time bars.
% change = 192/138 = 39%

ratio of % gain: last leg parabolic of boradvision is 73.5% of it's X percentage gain. to show = 39/53 = 0.735
----
oil's x = 50, high = 98 ; gain 96%
oil's last leg started at 88 (base of red trendline)

solving for "guessed" max/high price of oil's last leg:

formula: projected max/high price of last leg = (start of oil's last leg parabolic) times (1+(percentage gain of oil's X) times (ratio of % gain of X and parabolic of broadvision))

given:
ratio of % gain of broadvision's X and last leg = 73.5% or 0.735
start of oil's last leg parabolic = 88
% gain of oil's x = 96% or 0.96

compute:
projected max/high price of last leg = 88 x (1+(0.96 x 0.735))= $150/bbl


caveat. there's no relation between broadvision and oil except similarity of their charts. there are other parabolic chart sample other than broadvision which could lead to different ratios and proportion. so happen both charts have similar wave counts (base 2 to base 3) and time correction pattern (base 4) as well as valid trendlines (4 of them with the red trendline as the key).


Support the street children movement.

this is spyfrat's post. :) spyfrat is a fllod victim and yet he still had the time to write something for us here!!! a true testament for his love of investing and trading. :) i decided to add little flavor to the blog by having a guest writer from a different school of thought. :) but of course i still believe the your investing style really depends on what your goals are and your tolerance for risk and patience. after all short term investors and long term investors are after the same thing PROFIT! we just have a different process of doing it. as they say in school in math class "the process doesnt matter as long as you get the right answer."

ps for any comments, questions or suggestion please email me at compounder888@gmail.com

i will also try to have a fundamental analysis of oil next time if i have the time. :)

rice rice baby

I have always stated that the us is going to suffer a recession and i am that happy that somehow it really happened and i didnt make myself look like a fool. ;) but after that i also stated that prosperity will transfer here in asia and after a few months this year it hasnt looked promising..... tsktsktsk :-( and my dad has consistently repeated that we are in a crisis right now and after doing a little research and careful study on the subject my father was right on a lot of points and maybe without being conscious about it.... the drop in the american economy drove investors and speculators alike to buy gold, oil and other commodities as a hedge against the weakening us dollar. As a result, it drove the prices of commodities up which resulted a meteoric rise of gold and oil, even reaching new highs, with almost every machine in this world being driven by oil it resulted in rising costs in everything from transportation, food and almost everything. I still believe that there will still be a shift in capital from the us to asia because in simple plain logic any businessman or investor will always put his money where he can get better returns and asia in my opinion is the next best thing after the us right now because asset prices here are not that high compared to europe and other parts of the world. :) so it might be true that capital will probably go here after the us recession but it also came at a price. Tsktsk and then there is another, the weakening us dollar and the strengthening peso, though looking at the bigger picture it is better for our government that our currency strengthened because it will lower our foreign debt which would lower our deficit and same is true with companies with dollar loans. But in return we are also lowering the purchasing power of our dollar dependent families or families receiving remittances from abroad. From P55 to P41 is a 25% decrease so if your receiving $1,000 a month a few years ago it would translated into P55,000 in expenses be it groceries, shopping or investing but now it is only worth P41,000. Ofw family budgets are definitely affected. Then you have to factor in the fact that basic commodity prices have been rising lately. Tsktsktsk gasoline has been steadily increasing the last few years. When i first started driving diesel was at P9.80 per liter imagine that???? below P10 a liter and maybe that was 10 years ago then when i had my own car in college it was at P15.00 already and now its at the P40 range already. Tsktsktsk i will put it in numbers so that you will understand the impact it has on our daily lives.:) 
diesel is increasing at a rate of 15% per annum. tsktsk and i think it will keep on going up and with that expect fares to also go up. And i think the most serious crisis of them all right now is the rice shortage which is a staple to the filipino diet. :) they say that there is a rice shortage and i really dont know the truth behind it. Some say that this is a ploy of the government so that the people will forget about the zte deal scandal. I really dont know but what i do know right now is that a solution should be made for the rice prices to stop rising and to stabilize. Tsktsk im calling all the rice hoarders to please release whatever rice they may have for the betterment of our country. If you keep hoarding rice at this time i believe it is tantamount to economic sabotage and the government should do something about it. :) i have even heard stories that the warehouses of these rice hoaders when they were being checked up by the officials were empty but the truth of the matter is that their stock were in barges in the middle of nowhere. Calling officials please do something about this. I really dont know the truth about this. But that is the story thats been going around. Maybe its just a rumor or maybe its the truth i really dont know but every avenue to fix the rice shortage should be checked by the top men of the nfa. :) please do something about this!! :) according to my friend from the media holp-ups, burglaries and related crimes have been increasing lately which is probably because of desperate attempts for money. These are desperate attempts for money and to be able to provide for their family. Tsktsktsk another sign that a lot of the population are having money problems or hardships. Tsktsktsk im sure the government realizes this and businessmen should expect an increase in wages soon. Tsktsktsk can you see the pattern???? its a vicious cycle!!! everybody is affected in this. :) talked to a college classmate who is now an executive in the sm department store and she told me that the sales have dropped in almost all of their branches and they attribute this because of the rice shortage and it being a staple of every family. Families have to adjust their budgets for the increase of price in rice. Tsktsktsk im sure there will be bad debts here and there because of the crisis but it wont reach that level of the us subprime crisis so we dont have to worry about that. :) let us hold on tight, it will be a bumpy ride in the next few months but i know there is light at the end of the tunnel. :) every economy will undergo its ups and downs and this is something that we have to surpass. :) to put it in simple words i dont know what the market is suffering from right now. Is it just a slight fever of flu i really cant diagnose it. Hehehe :) just continue to do research and continue to find for diamonds in the rough. :) bargains are to be found at this time. :) patience is a virtue. :) i still expect oil and gold to keep on going up so better buy your loved ones some jewelry while its still cheap. :) God bless. :)
p.s. For any comments, questions or suggestions please email me at compounder888@gmail.com. And for questions sent to me by email last week i'll answer them soon. :)

i thought....

Hello again there to everybody who follow this blog of mine. :) its been a week since i wrote an article here and what can i say a lot has happened! Like mark mobius has announced publicly that investing in emerging markets is a good hedge against volatility and can give better returns. :) is this the shift of funds to asia we were talking about? :) then gold and oil has started to make a strong move going up. And looking at the oil chart i could say that technically gold could reach $880 by april 09. but of course that is not a guarantee i am just saying what the charts are telling me and if you think about it fundamentally it is also possible because of the weakening us dollar. :) time will tell what will really happen. In the 1970's gold reached as high as $850 or if my calculations are correct around P400/gram during that time and if you adjust that for 25 years of inflation the price today would be around P2,900. Can you imagine that?? if you look at gold from that point of view gold is really way undervalued. But lets be conservative and say that gold during the 70's reached as high as P250 and adjusted for 25 years of inflation the price today should be a little over P1,800 and as of the moment gold is doing P1,050-1,100/gram. :) i also heard over the news that jp morgan is overweight on asia across the board. And that the us dollar-peso exchange rate could be in the low 40's by the year end. Our accountant also discussed with me yesterday the new bir rules which i believe they patterned after the irs in the us. They said that they'll computerize everything which will make evading taxes difficult. :) but of course let us see if that will ever become a reality but if it really does it will be really good for the country taking into consideration that our politicians wont put our money to waste. But lets just wait and see maybe this is all good in theory for all we know. :) i would like to congratulate the newest billionaire in the philippines mr. Andrew tan. :) i admire all your work sir and i like all the projects that your doing right now. :) there is just so much potential in your company. :) i envy you for you won that beautiful wristwatch during the tatler ball last sept. 29. :) market had a strong close yesterday and i dont know if the market will bring that kind of sentiment next week considering the tragic bombing that happened yesterday at glorietta. :( it was such a barbaric act and i hope they get whoever committed this crime. But i was surprised today because when i checked the other parts of the mall in glorietta was still open i really thought that they were going to close the mall for a few days. If you think about it thats also a good sign but i know the stock price of the company will surely take a hit in the next few weeks. But even after this setback i still like the company and to show you the culture of the company they said that they will shoulder all the medical expenses of those who were injured. And another thought why destablilize the government??? what for when everything is going well for the country. Tsktsk im sure whoever is behind this wants to take over the presidency. Tsktsktsk that is not good. Why dont we just shut up and work to make our country better. Thank you Lord for giving my sister a healthy baby boy. :) another bundle of joy for the family. :) good luck and God bless to everyone. :)