raging bull

The market is really bullish right now with consecutive 1% gains in a few days and despite a 3% drop last friday januarv26 but it still doesnt matter. It still shows that our market is really in a bullish mode with many foreigners joining the fun in our market. There are hardly any bargains in our market. But there are still a few and im really interested with this one find of mine. I will tell you about it in time for i am still gathering more info and data but it really looks promising. It can be the next urc, ict and smdc! :) for speculators you might like v! Its breakout point is at 1.70! :) very solid stock which is still undervalued as of now with the sale of its shares in ibank. :) just remember that being a value investor means being patient and waiting for the right opportunities. :)it is really a different discipline altogether being a value investor. It means being a marathon runner not being a sprinter and its harder than being a speculator. As they say “have faith that is all that matters” this applies when everything looks hopeless but you should still hold on to your research that your holding an excellent stock that could give you excellent returns in a few years time. A friend of mine gerthrode was able to read my blog and she requested that i write about how the stock market works. Basically its just a big marketplace where people buy and sell stocks. :) maybe ill write about it next time. Thank you so much for taking the time to read my blog. Take care everyone and good luck in all your trades. Market really looks bullish and i still cant believe it that after a few months that i wrote that the minimm upside of the market is 3,150 and now our market has breached it and it would seem to me that it is forming a new base. But i believe that our market will continue trending up. God bless :)

the bargain of the quarter!

Good day everyone! Hope all is well with you there. Another trader friend of mine just read this humble blog of mine today and im happy to say that he liked it. Unless he is lying to me. Hehehe but anyway my friend nico suggested that i should have my picks for the quarter for both fundamental and speculative investors. Well i do have to admit that i am really more of a fundamentalist but still i will try my best. For my fundamental pick of the month i really like urc! URC! At 18-19 per share it is a bargain. It was just announced today that its income for 2006 increased by 19%! that means more or less its eps is around 1.45-1.50 so it should really be trading around the 22-24 range based on its historical eps. :) this company is solid and i watched the interview of mr lance gokongwei this morning in bloomberg and what can i say?!?! the guy will take urc to new heights! With all due respect to mr john gokongwei who started it all but lance understands the needs of investors! He knows how to unlock shareholder value. Give him 5-10 years more he will really be a force to reckon with in the philippine industry!i like urc it has good management and it has great growth potential with its beverage division being its growth driver! :) i have to say that i love c2! :) as spyfrat and my friend rafael had lunch today the former confided to me. . . i really dont know f he is just trying to flatter me but when urc was already trading at around 5 i wanted to buy shares already but spyfrat discouraged me so i gave in but after a few weeks i really liked what i saw in urc and i really insisted that i should get shares so i was able to get some at 6.40 and i bought a few more after. He told me that i made him realize that gokongwei stocks are not that bad because he never liked gokongwei stocks. Hehehe so now he is also a believer! MR LANCE GOKONGWEI i hope youre reading this! Hehehe technically the minimum upside of urc is around P31 so i do hope that we get there. At its present price this is a bargain. I wouldnt be surprised if this shoots up to 30 or more. So this is my parting word to you all! See you at P30! HEHEHEHE btw there is this another stock that im studying it is also owned by a tycoon. It has very very good fundamentals i will tell you about it in a few weeks time because im still studying it!!!! :) god bless :)

dinagyang

The dinagyang festival here in iloilo city will be on january 26-28. come to iloilo city and experience the excitement of dinagyang and the fun of merrymaking in the streets. :) we will also have lunch in our house for invited guests. :) come and enjoy the fun in iloilo city! Come and experience dinagyang! :) hoping to see you here! :)

go psei!

The dinagyang spirit is alive here in iloilo. Come and visit dinagyang here in iloilo. I just checked the monthly charts of the psei and i just found out soomething. Around 1996-97 the psei topped at around 2632 and we broke that barrier around two months ago but what happened is that when the psei made a new high it also means that it has set a new minimum upside for itself! Its new minimum upside is 4264. when we are gonna reach this i dont know but with the way our market has been going the last few weeks i should say that its possible that we might going in that direction. :) lets just hope and pray that were going to get there. :)

new high

Now that's what i'm talking about! The psei showing signs of waking up! And waking up big time! This is the effect of the santa claus rally from the last week of 2006. i hope that it will reach its minimum upside of 3,150 in a few weeks time :) with the market having gains of more than 1% in a trading last january 12, 15 and 18 which shows that the market is truly bullish! I think that as of the moment i can say that the market can surpass the 3,400 mark. But i really dont know if the market could reach it this year or some time next year. But its almost sure that were going to go over it. There are still some good finds in the market. URC is trading sideways as of the moment. That is a good stock to buy at P18 or at a lower price. But be ready to hold it for 5 years or more. :) i've held stocks of this company for almost three years now and i still don't have any plans of selling. This is the first stock that i bought when i decided to be a value investor. I bought 4000 shares of urc at P6.40 on june 24, 2004 and the rest is history. :) it reached a high of 24.50 and technically its minimum upside is 31. :) but well even if it reaches 31 i still don't have plans of selling it. Hehehe there's a stock that i kinda like right now. Its gsmi because its trading at such a big discount. Its trading at a 30% discount right now but the problem that im trying to figure out is that.... the last few years the sales of ginebra has suffered because of stiff competition from tanduay and im not a big fan of ginebra's management. That's why im thinking this over. Well there are still sleepers in the market. SGI and ASIA are good bets. :) v can also be good with the upcoming ipo of its subsidiary yehey. I believe that JFC will have a good year and i just made a new high which is good news for tsupiteros. :) EPHI is also a sleeper. I will tell you next time of this stock that i have been looking at that selling at a bargain right now. :) god bless to everyone. :)

tagaytay highlands

Its such a wonderful weekend its the first weekend of 2007 and im here in tagaytay. Its a really beautiful place :) very cool, calm and relaxing. I couldnt really compare it with baguio but its good enough. :) the good thing about tagaytay is that its nearer an hours drive away from manila and baguio is around five hours drive. That is why i know of a lot of people who would rather go to tagaytay than baguio because of the long travel. Im not putting down baguio because personally i like baguio. Cool and the smell of pine :) but tagaytay is good enough and its nearer. The point that im driving at is that in a way this is good for tagaytay highlands. :) another sy-owned company :) i just couldnt stop praising the guy for his business and financial genius. Both my dad and e admire him very much. Im going to do further research on bel and hp for i see another diamond in the rough. :) they are currently developing the tagaytay midlands which is connected to the highlands by cable car. :) the facilities of the place is nice and then the highlands steakhouse serve really good steak! :) yumyum :) this is the best way to do research go there and see for yourself :) im going to do further research on these companies. :) i think im going to add them on my stock wish list :)

donations please

Talked to my friend paul yesterday and asked him how he was and whats the development for any kidney donors. So far he said his mom is a possible donor but that is still not sure and they havent checked it out yet if they are compatible. He has dialysis twice a week. I really dont know how much it costs to have a dialysis but i heard its kinda costly and a rough estimate of a kidney transplant is around P500k. I really want to help my friend paul and ill try to raise funds for him.we talked and he even told “if it was just me i really wouldnt mind if i dont get any treatment but my two kids are still very young.” if there are any good souls who want to help my friend paul please contact me for im trying to raise funds for him. Thank you very much

despite the debacle in thailand i still really hope that the psei will close strong for the year. Anywhere between 2,900 and 3,000 would be ok. :)

thank you very much!

It has been a great year for the philippine stock exchange! Yeeehhhaaa!!!! :) congratulations to all tsupiteros and investors. Let us not forget to thank the BIG MAN up there. :) i would like to thank some of my friends in the investing world. First of all my family for giving me a good foundation in business, then my friend rafael who introduced me to investing in stocks, then my broker spyfrat for guiding me in my trades when i was starting out and up to now, i would also like to thank all the successful value investors for being an inspiration to me especially the great Warren Buffet! :) to all the readers of my blog thank you so much for taking the time to read what i have to say. I know im only human and im bound to make mistakes but i employ a style in which i try to eliminate the margin of error or margin of safety as they call it. To those who followed my advice/recommendations thank you. :) and to one generous individual who followed what i said and gained a large sum of money thank you for sharing with me, and even up to a point of insisting, a part of your gains(you didnt have to but still thank you very much). I would like to state again that my blog is a diary for me that after a few years i could go back and reflect why i bought, held or sold my shares in the market. I do not in any way solicit or expect payment. I do this because i love investing and i do this for the betterment of our stock market. I know that there are still a lot of people that i have to mention. You guys know who you are! Thank you and godbless! Fly high psei!!!!!

what a year!!!

Wow! What a way to end the year :) to be honest with you i had my doubts last week if there would be a rally at the end of the year with the foreign exchange controls that was imposed in thailand. Thats the hard part of being a long term investor. You might know how to evaluate a company with good fundamentals and but it at a good price but the question is can you hold on to it when things don't go your way? :) as they say do you have the balls of steel? Hehehe i believe that is the hardest part of being a value investor. . . holding on to stocks. I remember what the great warren buffett said “i made a lot of money doing nothing”. He said this because of his buy and hold strategy. Even when things don't look good or even if the dow jones will drop 100points in a day he really doesnt mind because what really matters for him is the fundamentals of the company. :) this is what i also mentioned in my earlier article. When youre investing you don't buy stocks but you buy parts of companies. :) like i recall just the other day i was with my trader friend rafael and he was kidding me that i shouldnt have bought sgi because it is not a good company cause it has too much cash. Of course i recommended it to him around 2 months ago and he didnt buy it and i did because i see so much value in the company. I didnt even care to explain to him my reasons for having shares in the company :) the net net value of the company or its current assets less all its liabilities is P1.26 and it has been in the 0.60-0.85 range! If you cant see value in that then something must be wrong with you. That means that if the company closes down tomorrow and it has to liquidate all its assets you will still get 1.26 per share after paying all liabilities and that is just from its current assets! We havnt even talked about its long term assets like land, building equipment etc. i would rather buy a company with excess cash than buy a company with excess long term assets because as they say in business cash is king :)you give P1M and i bring it to aparri, sulu or batanes it will still be worth p1M. If there's a piece of land and you have 10 people look at it i'm sure everyone will come up with a different price.besides it is hard to sell real estate and when you quickly want to dispose of long term assets you will most of the time sell it at a discount. My portfolio this year performed 44.76% before dividends while the psei did 42.29% :) im happy i was able to outperform the psei this year by a few points :) i really hope that i will be able to do that again next year :) i hope theres a good soul/s out there who would be willing to give some financial help to my friend. Please let me know if you want to help. The spirit of christmas is in giving and in sharing. :) merry christmas and a happy new year to all. :) god bless :)

help please help

Talked to my friend paul yesterday and asked him how he was and whats the development for any kidney donors. So far he said his mom is a possible donor but that is still not sure and they havent checked it out yet if they are compatible. He has dialysis twice a week. I really dont know how much it costs to have a dialysis but i heard its kinda costly and a rough estimate of a kidney transplant is around P500k. I really want to help my friend paul and ill try to raise funds for him.we talked and he even told “if it was just me i really wouldnt mind if i dont get any treatment but my two kids are still very young.” if there are any good souls who want to help my friend paul please contact me for im trying to raise funds for him. Thank you very much

despite the debacle in thailand i still really hope that the psei will close strong for the year. Anywhere between 2,900 and 3,000 would be ok. :)

help needed

We are now less than two weeks away from christmas and i've been thinking of doing a good deed. :) last week i found out that he has kidney failure and both of his kidneys need to be replaced. He is currently looking for a donor. He told me that it might possibly be his mom but he is still not sure. From what i know about kidney transplants from the stuff i've heard and seen in the movies its still not sure if your body will accept the kidney if you have found a donor. If you happen to know anybody who could help him out with his kidney transplant kindly contact me or mail me. He needs our help and im trying to raise funds for him for his operation and he is undergoing dialysis twice a week. I really don't have any idea how to raise funds for charity but if you are willing to give some financial assistance please let me know. Chirstmas is not about receiving but giving and making others happy. :) good day :)

to peter and sofie

im so happy my laptop now is fully functional!!!!!!!!!!! :)) thank you so much to peter and her yummy girlfriend sofie :) thank you so much for helping me set up the wireless connection in my room :) love you guys :)

Alaska is good and sgi is.....

i like alaska milk corporation :) from a fundamentalist's or value investor's point if view it is a very good company :) not much debt and its financial status is very healthy and recently an american company bought a lot of shares in the company. I'm really not familiar with the company that got shares in the company. But if you ask me would i buy shares in the company right now? It depends in how you look at it. If it was benjamin graham you were talking too he would probably buy shares in the company around the 2.80-3.20 range :) but if it what warren buffett you were talking too he wouldnt buy shares in the company because its earnings prospects dont look that good tsktsktsk but if your talking value wise it is a good company :) so in value investing there are different branches :) like when i was talking to my friend eric, a fellow value investor also, there are some things that we agree on and a few things that we dont :) an example would be sgi. I like sgi because of its value that has yet to be unlocked. The only thing that's lacking in this company is support from the family or management. A little press release here and there, presenting to the media what the present projects the company are undertaking would really help in unlocking shareholder value. Despite that shortcoming of the company i still like it. :) the company has 15% downside and so much upside. :) thats one important thing to be a value investor. You really have to have a lot of patience. To have faith when everything looks hopeless.... :) to be a good value investor takes a lot of patience and guts. :) i really hope i could promote value investing in the country :) godbless

strong close

second week in a row that the psei has closed strong. do you know what that means? theres a big possibility of a santa claus rally. :) why does that happen every december? i think i have a few ideas why :) one is that our ofws usually send money back home for the holidays with the influx of more dollars in the country that means as the law of supply and demand will dictate there will be more supply and thus will cause the us dollar to depreciate and our peso will appreciate :) and another reason is that companies are window dressing and they would like that their share prices would end up higher so that it will look good in their balance sheet :) i have to think of other reasons but for us small time investors hehehehe we just have to take advantage of this phenomenon :) good luck we still have three weeks before the year ends :)

new laptop

im so happy today i finally bought a new laptop :) phew! i've always wanted to have a laptop ever since before i still didnt need it thats why i didnt buy but ive realized that i have been using a lot lately so i decided to get one for myself. :) for stocks, research and for work. :) i can see the market continuing its rise but i see that it will delayed a bit because of all this drama in our government right now :) im now happy i got a laptop but i still need to get help from my friends peter and sofie coz im not that well versed when it comes to computers hehehe :)

long term investing and compounding

short term or long term that is the question :) surely it depends with the personality of the person but ofr me i like to invest in the long term. i dont just buy stocks but i buy companies! everytime you buy shares of stocks in a company it represents part ownership in that company and thats why i buy :) the longer your holding period the less vlolatility comes into play. well now the problem is how to get the right price to buy in order to get a good return :) i will talk about that next time :) most of the people that trade or invest in the stock market are short term players. :) you can seldon see long term investors nowadays. :) but when your investing for the long term one of the tricks is compounding :) i learned of compounding when i was in college and it changed my life :) it is really simple just like putting your money in the bank. the longer the holding period the more compounding comes into play and becomes more powerful :) it is like a giant snowball!!! :) i will show to you some numbers. lets say you have P1,000 and you decide to invest it in a bank at 6% interest per annum. after 5years your money will be worthP1,338.23 10years since your deposit date it will be worth P1,790.85 in 15 years P2,396.56 in 20 years 3,207.14. your money grew over 3times in 20 years.we could now apply this into stocks. lets say you bought urc at the start of the bull run which was around 2004 and its shares were trading P5 and after almost 3years its now trading at 19.50! almost 4times and im not even mentioning that it declared cash dividends 3times and a 15% stock dividend. what is its compounded rate? 57.5% imagine that????? in year 3years time it beat the retunrs of a 20 year time deposit in a bank. and another story ict wow! if you bought it at the end of 2000 it was trading at P1 it was during the time when there was so much political crisis in our country and now its trading at P20! imagine that?!?!?! thats 64.75% compounded return :) i have shown you here some of the benefits of investing for the long term in a great company :) we could also apply this in our daily lives. you wanna buy a car.... lets say a nissan x-trail. theres 2.5 liter and a 2.0liter kind the difference between the two is a 100k. if you buy the 2.5liter type did you just lose 100k? no you lost more than that! ill show you. the 100k more that you spent to get the higher model is worth the money you lost on other opportunities....in economics opportunity cost :) if you put it the stock market and got a 15% return.....
in 5 years you lost P201,135.72
in 10 years you lost P 404,555.77
in 15years you lost P813,706.16
in 20years you lost P1,636653.74
in 25years you lost P3,291,895.26
if you put it in the stock market and got a 20% return you would have lost...
in 5years you lost P248,832
in 10years you lost P619,173.64
in 15 years you lost P1,540,702.16
in 20 years you lost P3,833,759.99
in 25 years you lost P9,539,621.66
as kid my grandparents on both sides who experienced the war were very thrifty but of course they are not misers and they always said to always save for a rainy day. they might not have been aware of it but they were comounding their savings :) but now we have the stock and we should take advantage of good investments that come our way :) by comopunding it doesnt mean the you shouldnt eat or buy new clothes coz youd rather compound your money. you should also enjoy the things that money could buy and not be a slave of it :) i hope i have inspired you to invest some of your money in the philippine stock market :) i love investing and i will do anything to promote, educate other people and help in the advancement of investing in the philippine stock market :) good luck! godbless :)

i have a dream

it has been a dream of mine lately to be able to put up a mutual fund ala berkshire hathaway :) but i guess its kinda difficult here coz people here are not that well versed when it comes to the stock market. when people hear stock market the thing that goes into their mind is crashes, panics and insider trading. maybe the pse should do something to improve the image of our stock market. ive been trying to convince my friends that we pool together money and then i'll invest it in the stock market. but thats the usual responses that i get. investing oir trading in the stock market has also a lot of advantages. if you find a good company with good management you could buy the shares of the said company and then "ride" on its growth. assuming you could buy shares at the right price you get better returns than just leaving your money in the bank. and owning shares allows you to be a part owner of a very good business. thats the approach that i use when analyzing stocks.... you dont own stocks. you dont buy stocks. your not just holding a piece of paper but you are a part owner of a business. in other words you dont buy stocks buy but buy parts of businesses. :) my target is actually very modest 15% compounded return but of course if i could do 20% or more why not. :) 15% compounded return is double your money in 5years and four(4) times your money in ten years. :) not bad right? :) im still researching on how to put a mutual and hopefully someday my dream will come true. :)
we are undergoing a correction right now but i still believe that our market is still trending upward. to tell you the truth im even happy that we are having a correction right now coz lets say that the psei closes the year over 3,000 i think that the upward movement of our market is too abrupt and might cause panic selling. there are still good stocks out there. just remember to do your research before buying something. dont just buy something from what you heard from others. its kinda fun in the banking sector right now coz of all the speculation of what bank will be bought and at what price etc etc. but i still should say that asia is a very undervalued stock. its pr reatio is below 11, its book value is 16 and is conservative book value is just below 13. if there is consolidation now in the banking industry this company will most likely by bought and at the same time your holding an undervalued company :) theres been a lot of movement the last few trading days. is something up? i heard that they had a stockholders meeting last satuday. lets just wait for the news to come out. good luck on your trades :)

this week in review

gold is steadily climbing up..... are you thinking what im thinking??? i really believe that the american economy is going to overheat soon :) spyfrat agrees with me and this is also the observation of dr marc faber :) im reading his book right now :) just give it a few years it will overheat or go into a recession. its just my opinion i might be wrong knows or i might be right also. anything can happen in this business. :) i have told some of my friends about my blog i hope that i would be able to encourage them to get into the stock market. ive wanted to gather funds from my friends and then manage it and let it grow. just like the way the great warren buffett started.but its really hard to convince people to get into the stock market cause everytime you tell them they ask about market crashes and all the risks being in the stock market and losing money etc etc. i guess mr faber was right, its all a cycle the economy will go up and what goes up must come down and then the money that the people put in the market will go somewhere else and then create another boom. just like in science energy is never lost it is only transformed into to something else. :) between emerging markets vs the us right now i think the former will win.
it would seem to me that the philippine stock market is going thru a correction right now but you always have to remember to look at the bigger picture :) i really believe that the market is still undervalued and still has a lot of upside. december is usually a month where the market goes up so lets wait and see. as warren buffett said "the ticker is just there as reference if someone is selling something at a foolish price."
Congrats manny pacquiao! everybody should aspire to be like you and how you climbed the ladder of success with hardwork and determination. :) mabuhay ka manny!!!! :)

common sense investing

everytime i meet someone who's into the stock market one question that i never fail to ask is "what's your investing style?" im sure you ask that question too. so how did you develop your style? just last weekend i attended a seminar in our office and there was a questionnaire that we answered to find out your personality. i was an owl meaning your into numbers and methodical. in a way i was happy coz i was equipped for an important part in investing in the stock market which is research and financial analysis :) i also helps that im an accountancy graduate. :) i like numbers i guess thats why i was called into the field. :)my family is also into business and that really influenced my way of thinking :) my idols in business and investing are my dad, mr henry sy and warren buffett. there are a lot but they are the ones that i really admire. i remember that my parents were really against investing in the stock market coz it was 'gambling' but a few years after they were ok with it already coz they can see that my style is sound, feasible and makes sense. buy low and sell higher its as simple as that :) mr sy i admire for his focus, patience and being an astute businessman :) warren buffett for his patience and very sensible approach to investing :) what do all my idols have in common? they are patient. llke a tiger waiting for the right time to strike his prey :) they are all focus investors:) as the saying goes put all your eggs in one basket and watch it closely :) and they all have a simple strategy in investing or in business. buying low and selling high to get a high rate of return :) keep it simple thats what makes their style so effective :) i patterned my style after my idols :) as my friend hernan calls it "defensive investing" but i call "common sense investing" :) for one year i tried technical investing but it just didnt work for me coz i have a day job. in the end your environment, lifestyle, way of thinking will shape your investing style. if you have the passion anybody can succeed in the stock market. good luck!!!!!!! :)

driver

the psei has a minimum upside of 3,150 and what will bring it there? of course higher share prices and for that to happen.... better earnings for companies and stable political environment. well for now the opposition has kept quiet and companies have been reporting higher earnings. so far everything looks good :) but for the psei to go higher it needs the big caps like smph, mbt, bpi, glo and especially tel to push it up. for the psei to go beyond 3,000 by my rough estimate tel should hit 2,700-2,900. that is attainable bacause the pe ratio of tel is around 9-10 right now. lets just be patient and in due time we will get there :) good luck