Saturday, October 28, 2006

prime space

i like undervalued securities and any good businessman would like what im doing :) getting your money's worth when you buy something :) of course im not saying that value investing is a sure shot thing but the approach allows you to assess at what price you can buy a security with very little downside. but of course in this business anything can happen :) the company that i see that has very little downside is SMPH :) this year the market has been up almost 30% and this company's stock has just gained around 8-12% so i could say that it has been a laggard this year theres a big possibility this stock just might catch up :) while its fellow big time players in real estate like MEG, ALI, CHI etc are trading at multiples of 30 or more. you want to know the reason why? this is so because analysts say that theres not much growth in smph. while other players in the industry are running after bpos for office space smph has been kida open to it but not really going after bpos. so when the time comes that the us will suffer a recession and one of the effects would be the closure of the companies' call centers here. with smph not dependent on bpo space income it wouldnt be that affected by the slowdown of the american economy. i also remember a trader friend tell me before that "ali will do better than smph coz the latter is still a "family" corporation while ali is run by professionals" but i disagree coz it doesnt matter for me but what matters is the competence and how well that person understands the business that really matters and with the dedication and work ethic of the sy family they definitely can bring the company in the right direction. :) just like microsoft who is leading the company a college dropout himself mr bill gaes :) sm prime is a company that has a franchise. it means that the company is dominant in its market :) just look at their business for every tenant in the mall in required to give 6 months advance and security deposit and they will only return it if the tenan twill move out. can you imgine that money that they have in their possession that they got from the security deposits? they dont even have to shell out money for the operations of the mall! they could just get it from the advance and security deposits. and everytime sm opens a mall it brings with them all the big name retailers like national bookstore, mcdonals, jollibee, chowking etc and they just couldnt say no. so even if the department store iis really not doing well smph will always be assured of their rental income :) this is one company thats really strong and it wont be long before this one goes up in price and in my analysis in bad times this stock wont be affected that much :) good luck :)

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

solid group is solid

theres been talk of this secret stock in investing circles what is it and why is it a good investment? i happened to stumble on this stock a few months ago i saw that it was good and it was cheap and very cheap in fact :) but it was like an ill get back to you later stock and then a few weeks ago spyfrat asked me to check the financial health of a company that he saud might be a sleeper. and when he mentioned that it was sgi then i knew it was time for me to buy and tell my other friends about it :) seldon can you see a stock that has so much upside and so very little downside :) well why should you buy its shares? well its a bull market and you can almost make money in anything :) hehehe this is an example that will prove what others have been saying that you couldnt invest in the stock market anymore using the principles of value investing as preached by benjamin graham :) here are the numbers and to prove that you can still make money in the market using value investing :)
current assets - total liabilities then divide it by the total number of shares :)
3.63b - 1.06b = 2.57b / 2,030.98shares =1.26/share :) is that dirt cheap or what? :)
its just like someone selling you a 1thoiusand pero bill (assuming that the pero bill is real of course) for 667 only. :) if thats not a good offer then i dont know what is :) and ill make another assumption this is the approach of michael price one of the superstar value investors today :) lets just assume that management was irresponsible this is just an assumption all of their long term assets were just worth 40% lets see what happens long term assets =
4.03b x 40% = 1.612b then add current assets and subtract liabilities
3.63b + 1.612b = 5.242b - 1.06b = 4.182b and divide by the total number of shares :)
4.182b / 2,030.98 shares = 2.06 / share this even makes the closing price of 0.84 look so so cheap :) lets assume that the value of its long term assets are worth 50% what number will we come up with :) 4.03b x 50% = 2.015b then 2.015b + 3.63b =5.645b - 1.06b = 4.585b
4.585b / 2,030.98 shares = 2.26/share :) these are some of the reasons why i still believe that you could still make money in the market using the principles of value investing :) its reported book value in their fs is 3,12 :) technically this stock broke out last mondayoct 17 :) what are you waiting for? get yourself some shares :) in this market anything can happen but when the odds are in your favor you should go for it :) you have a royal flush what are the two magic words that you have to say? "ALL IN" :)

Monday, October 23, 2006

secret stock

i bought an undervalued stock last friday oct 20, 2006 :) it is a small cap stock :) conservatively computed its value is P12.85 :) its now traading at P6.70 ;) i will mention it anyway for only spyfrat is the lone person who knows about this blog in this world :) its asiatrust :) if you happen to read this blog get shares of asia now! with the market rising it wont be long before this will be noticed by others :) good luck :)

manila trip

i was in manila a few days ago and i ealized some things about the phil. well one thing if youre in the mall as my mom would say it "everybody in manila is a millionaire" because if you look at the people at the mall everybody looks nice and a lot of people wear signature clothes and apparel which i should say is not cheap. that just shows the unequal distribution of wealth and resources in the philippines. i just hope that our government will be able to address this someday. more jobs in the provinces. better schools in the province etcetc in other words manila should decentralize. and ive also realized that the drastic improvement in our economy is in large part because of the reforms of our government :) hats off to you madam president :) we have a stronger peso which we also have our ofws to thank for :) and people also say that the real estate boom is because of the filipinos abroad who want to go back here to retire. i agree a bit but i would also like to add something. the bpos or call centers have a huge part to play in the real estate boom! i know of a lot of real estate companies building structures to fill the demand for space of call centers. this is good and bad., why? it means that if the american economy will overheat we will be greatly affected. in 1997 it was because of the us dollar that caused the asian financial crisis. what will happen will be this... but this is just in theory you dont have to take this seriously... this is just a hypothesis of mine. the us stock market looks very good right now so the slowing down of the us economy will not happpen in 1 or 2 years what this means is that we have to take advantage of the bullishness of the phil economy. when the us economy will slow down us corporations will cutdown on costs and one possible scenario would be closing down their call centers. which would mean that tousands of people will be without jobs and what will happen to the buildings that the companies put for the call centers???? people will be without work and our real estate market will fall. as ive said this is just a theory :) if there will be another crisis in the coming years it will be caused by a recession in the us and the closing down of call centers here in the phil. i decided to make this blog to put down my thoughts and analyses so that in the future i will be able to review it and see where i went wrong and why i was right :) i only told one person of this blog and ill call him by the name spyfrat :) hes my broker and a good friend :) im more of a fundamentalist and he is a chartist :) as they say opposites attract. learned so much from this guy! :)

Sunday, October 22, 2006

bull run of the philippine stock market

with the way things are going i think the psei will break its 7year high of 2,632 and if you look at it from a swing trading approach the minimum upside of the psei is 3,150 and we might reach it 1-2 years :) you never know what will happen in this business but i really do hope that it will happen :) its time the world took notice what the philippines have to offer. i really hope that the time will come that the philippines will be known not only for its filipino hospitality but also as a place where you could do good business and sleep well at night that there wont be another coup the next day. hehehe go! go! go psei!!! fly high!!! the phil is really doing well right now with a stronger peso which will affect some sectors but it is for the greater good that we will have a stronger peso :) the stock that i recomended last wekk was sgi and it closed at 0.77 and if the market continues its bull run i wont be surprised if it reaches P1 by the end of this year :) i found another stock that is undervalued :) way undervalued actually :) its a small bank :) its asiatrust development bank :) asia if calculated very conservatively its worth is around P12.85 and it closed last week at P6.50 :) i have another stock but im still doing some research on it :) i will tell you about it in my next blog i guess :) just check out asia :) if you like it then get yourself some shares :) good lucj to you and me :) fly high psei!!!!!!!

Tuesday, October 17, 2006

value investing

i believe that everything in life happens for a reason why you meet people, have your heart broken(i hope it happens the other way around hehehe) , make mistakes etcetc i was introduced to the world of stocks by chance but i believe that there is a deeper purpose to it :) it was oct 2002 when i took the cpa board exam and failed tsktsk i wanted to take the exam again but my dad thought it would be better if i went back home and helped in the family business. i didnt have any interest in stocks at first..... but a friend of mine was investing or trading in stocks :) and at that time i was looking for a business :) my friend introduced me to his broker and to my surprise my broker was one of the most respected minds in the philippines when it comes to stocks :) but sad to say in my first year i just broke even :) hehehe coz i was just "feeling" my trades hehehehe it was after that that i realized that i should have a system and discipline in investing in companies. the first book that i got from national bookstore was william o'neil's book about technical analysis. i have to admit that i am a value investor at heart but i have all the respect for charts, trendlines, cup with handle etcetc :) i am a value investor with a little twist :) but in the end just do whatever works for you. i tried value investing also but it just didnt work for me coz i have a day job and that when long term value investing came to my rescue :) i researched hard coz i believe that winning half the battle is knowing your up against :) then i made my investment decisions with all the disciplne that i could muster based on the principles of value investing :) i like it coz i could made trades and leave the stocks there for months or even years :) i also liked it coz it can give my portfolio business like returns :) like around 15-20% per annum :) and value investing made sense for me like buying low and selling high just like any businessman would do. it was like a match made in heaven :) but dont get me wrong technical analysis is ok also. use the system that suits your personality and your lifestyle :) remember life is beautiful :) my broker who is one of the most respected in the philippines chaced upon this stock and asked me to evaluate it fundamentally :) the company looks good and it even looks so much better coz it is dirt cheap :) curret assets less all of its liablities would net P1.26 per share and as of today it closed at 0.69 what does that tell us? BUY! actually my broker and i have been sending out feelers to others about this "secret stock" for a week now. the company is solid group inc or sgi. it just broke out today! good luck :)

Monday, October 09, 2006

patience is a virtue

when ur trading u will always encounter this question..... which is better short term or long term? and i believe that most people would choose the former. i believe this is so because of instant gratification :) being able to get ur money and being able to spend it on whatever u like :) but if u really look at the bigger picture long term investing will give u far more superior returns :) be it investing in stocks or in business. just look at the lists of the richest men in the world i could say that they are all long term investors. :) if only people here in the philippines would see the bigger picture :) the stock is a great way for them to catch a ride for financial independence :) anybody here care to give me some love advice?

Friday, October 06, 2006


i would like to ask u. . . what if u find out that ur subordinate or fellow worker has been stealing from u if u own the company or has been stealing from the company that you work with what will you do? what if he or she was just forced to do that coz of the present circumstances in his or her life? like her mo is ill? or her brother rily needs money for tuition in school? or what if shes stealing coz of a nasty drug habit? what would u do? or coz he has a gambling problem? im asking u guys these questions coz i just found out this afternoon that some items were missing worth more than 100k ssshhhhhhheeeessssssshhhhhhhh its giving me a headache right now. and worse no one wants to take the blame. tsktsktsk just sharing my mind thats all. :(

Thursday, October 05, 2006

bull run

wow the market is making a run! a very strong bull run. the peso is really appreciating and i hope it continues for the sake of the philippines :) just remember guys think long term im thinking this run will last for at least a year pa :) technically if u look at it technically the minimum upside of the market if it breaks 2,600 will be around 3,150 :) i hope this will become a reality :) i just bought epci shares(who wouldnt coz it was selling at a bargain price after mr sy got more than 50% of the company). remember always that we have an inefficient market :) i scoured around all the stocks that are not active and believe me there are still a lot of bargains out there :) u just have to be brave enough to buy them and hold unto them :) thats how it should be done when buying bargain stocks :) remember that time is ur friend :) hoping to hear from u guys :)