Saturday, October 20, 2007

i thought....

Hello again there to everybody who follow this blog of mine. :) its been a week since i wrote an article here and what can i say a lot has happened! Like mark mobius has announced publicly that investing in emerging markets is a good hedge against volatility and can give better returns. :) is this the shift of funds to asia we were talking about? :) then gold and oil has started to make a strong move going up. And looking at the oil chart i could say that technically gold could reach $880 by april 09. but of course that is not a guarantee i am just saying what the charts are telling me and if you think about it fundamentally it is also possible because of the weakening us dollar. :) time will tell what will really happen. In the 1970's gold reached as high as $850 or if my calculations are correct around P400/gram during that time and if you adjust that for 25 years of inflation the price today would be around P2,900. Can you imagine that?? if you look at gold from that point of view gold is really way undervalued. But lets be conservative and say that gold during the 70's reached as high as P250 and adjusted for 25 years of inflation the price today should be a little over P1,800 and as of the moment gold is doing P1,050-1,100/gram. :) i also heard over the news that jp morgan is overweight on asia across the board. And that the us dollar-peso exchange rate could be in the low 40's by the year end. Our accountant also discussed with me yesterday the new bir rules which i believe they patterned after the irs in the us. They said that they'll computerize everything which will make evading taxes difficult. :) but of course let us see if that will ever become a reality but if it really does it will be really good for the country taking into consideration that our politicians wont put our money to waste. But lets just wait and see maybe this is all good in theory for all we know. :) i would like to congratulate the newest billionaire in the philippines mr. Andrew tan. :) i admire all your work sir and i like all the projects that your doing right now. :) there is just so much potential in your company. :) i envy you for you won that beautiful wristwatch during the tatler ball last sept. 29. :) market had a strong close yesterday and i dont know if the market will bring that kind of sentiment next week considering the tragic bombing that happened yesterday at glorietta. :( it was such a barbaric act and i hope they get whoever committed this crime. But i was surprised today because when i checked the other parts of the mall in glorietta was still open i really thought that they were going to close the mall for a few days. If you think about it thats also a good sign but i know the stock price of the company will surely take a hit in the next few weeks. But even after this setback i still like the company and to show you the culture of the company they said that they will shoulder all the medical expenses of those who were injured. And another thought why destablilize the government??? what for when everything is going well for the country. Tsktsk im sure whoever is behind this wants to take over the presidency. Tsktsktsk that is not good. Why dont we just shut up and work to make our country better. Thank you Lord for giving my sister a healthy baby boy. :) another bundle of joy for the family. :) good luck and God bless to everyone. :)

Thursday, October 11, 2007

into uncharted territory

Its nice to see the market get to these levels after the market panic caused by the us subprime problems. :) the market hit its highest point this year last july 6 at 3,822.41 and at the height of the panic was as low as 2,874.99 on august 17. i cant wait for the time the market will hit 3,830 for it will signal another strong rally upward and we just be not far from it because as of the close of the market last thursday it showed signs of a strong rally and maybe break the 3,830 mark in the process and who knows where the market will take us. :) im happy that investor interest is back with metrobank because i added shares in the company also in the recent market downturn. :) i would say it is one of the very stable and solid stocks in our market. Ayala corporation was a bargain when it sold below P450/share. It was just unbelievable. Good thing i was also able to grab some shares. It was like a ferarri with a flat tire, sure you couldnt drive it for the moment but with a little fixing it is still a ferarri after you have the tires replaced. :) from its low of P405 it has gained around 50% after a month and a half. :) who wouldve have thought the market would be back to these levels after such a short time. I knew the market was still healthy but i didnt expect it to be back near the 3,800 this soon. :) hopefully we could go beyond the 4,000 level before the year ends. :) i wrote the first part of my next article of this blog after the pacquiao vs barrera match and i just wrote the introduction because i didnt think the market was going to go up this fast. Sure the bullish trading last october 2 and 3 showed signs that the market is going to have a strong rally but this is really BULLISH. Imagine 2% gains every trading day last october 2, 3 and 8. and the stocks that are really leading the charge are pldt, ayala corporation, ayala land, sm investments, metrobank and bank of the philippine islands. :) i thought the market needed a week of two to break the 3,830 mark but boy was i wrong. :) with the 3.830 mark broken, technically the minimum upside of the market is at 4,770. :) how long will it take the market to get there well time will tell. :) im just glad i stuck it out with the market during the downturn last august. ;) with this rally there are still some stocks that havent caught up with the increasing market prices like universal robina, ivantage, jollibee, gma7, national reinsurance corporation, solid group inc, sm development corporation, banco de oro, anscor, asia and keppel marine philippines. :) what can i say the market is like a yo-yo right now (just shows irrational the market is) but its okay as they say look at the long term and dont mind the short term volatility. In short dont be near sighted!!!! :) hehehe the market is about to have a strong rally after breaking 3,830 and with the peso strengthening thats a good indicator that the market is going to continue to go up. :) there are even some talks of the peso reaching the low 40's by the end of this year but lets not talk about that for now for that is still a subject that i still have to study. :) there is also this company that im studying right now. I really like it for it shows a lot of potential. It might just be the next turnaround company. :) i will share it with everybody reading this blog after i study it but so far i have been impressed. :) good luck to everybody and God bless. :)

Saturday, October 06, 2007

asian boom

Its been almost three weeks since ive put anything here... just been busy lately. Phew! Anyway lets get back to business and our business is stocks or finance or anything with value in it!!! :) theres a lot going thru my mind right for its three weeks worth of ideas and observations around me that i sometimes use also in my valuations. Simple as it may seem to the naked eye but if you really look and understand things deeply you will realize a lot of things. I was in hong kong for a week for business and luckily last thursday afternoon i had a bit of free time and i was able to go to hong kong disneyland with two friends. I know this might sound funny at my age but i still think that disney still has its magic!!! i really dont know what is it but theres just some kind of magic when youre there. I guess that is a good indicator of a good product and if only disney was a publicly traded company in the philippines i would surely love to own its stock. :)
when i was in hong kong there were a few simple things that i noticed that when i point this out to you you woud be surprised how you couldve taken it for granted. My trip to the said country was really for business but going around the country you cant help but notice some of the things there. Hong kong has very strong consumer spending like i was surprised when there was a line to go inside louis vuitton??? was really surprised to see that and i dont blame them for doing that because a lot of people go in the store not just to look but also to buy!!! there are a lot of buyers from hong kong residents but i believe that a big part of their costumers are people from the mainland. Which again im stressing that point that i have been making with you guys here. There will be an asian boom coming in the next few years and it is now believe almost inevitable now with the rise of metals, weakening of the us dollar and the looming recession of the us caused by the subprime crisis. Sooner or later fund managers and businessman will put their money somewhere where they can see promise or potential and that would be in asia. There will be shift in funds to asia!!! money is never lost it is only transformed or if you want transported in another place. :)
another thing that i also noticed in hong kong was the emergence of macau! Imagine this the venetian and wynn put up casinos there and soon mgm will have theirs operational also! What does this mean??? whenever there is a casino it means that there are people who are gamblers??? nahhhh just kidding it means that there are people with cash or excess money or in short people with money to burn. :) american companies put casinos there in macau to be able to get a piece of the pie and they see the potential in asia. :) just imagine folks three casinos in macau! Thats how confident they are in the asian market. :) if other people are so bullish with us here in asia shouldnt we also be bullish on ourselves???? :) another thing that i think also will help push up asia will the beijing olympics in august next year. :) it will be like a showcase of china and asia to the rest of the world. :) i wonder what is the effect of the olympics on the host country before and after the said event??? i think that would be an interesting study. :) i think an asian boom in the next few years is eminent but of course dont expect it to go up like a rocket i know there will still be some volatility but the general trend would be up. :)
there are only three things that could happen to an economy it could: go up, go down or move sideways. On the part of the us it is really going to go down even with the fed rate cuts because it is only a short term solution to the problem. It will solve the problem and calm the us markets in the short term but it is inflationary in the long term. It will drive the prices of different classes of assets up. And one asset that im really keeping an eye on is gold. :) when gold broke $695 my opinion was that the minimum upside of gold was $740 and it has already reached that mark and what it will do after that we have to see and gold will be supported by traders in the $690-$700 level. But i really do like the potential of gold with the weakening of the us dollar. :) i like gold so much that i even “speculated” on philex mining. :) i bought the stock of the company because i was confident with the rise in the price of gold and not because of the company itself. :) the market is now up almost 20% year to date and it is nice to see it back where it was before the panic but im still thankful for that for i was able to get shares in ayala corporation and national reinsurance at a good price. :) i attended the tatler 6th anniversary ball last saturday and it was a thrill for me to see all the bigwigs and taipans that shape our economy. :) look, observe and notice all the things that are happening around you to help you make your investment decisions. :) its nice to be back home. :) good luck and take care to everybody. :)
p.s. After a week of trying i have finally gotten through blogger!!! phew!!!