basketball, investing and life

Getting emails from readers and maybe some avid readers really puts a smile on my face. :) thank you so much for giving me a piece of your mind. :) and a reader sent me a mail today and maybe i could say “challenging” me to use the 2008 nba finals for tips on how to invest. :) well dear sir i am up to the challenge of doing so and it really got my juices flowing to write this article. :) im sure you might have noticed that i am a basketball freak from a few articles of mine about basketball. :) im going to write about the 2008 nba finals, the boston celtics and the los angeles lakers. We will use basketball to learn more how to deal with life and how to invest better. :)
during the regular season of the nba the boston celtics were able to have the league's best record with 66 wins and 16 losses and a very big improvement from last year's record of 24-58. the team before the season started was bolstered with trades for kevin garnett(one of the most versatile big men the game has ever seen but has never had any playoff success) and ray allen(one of the deadliest shooters the game has seen but also has never been to the nba finals). The celtics was one of the favorites to win the championship at the start of the season with the new player additions but there were also doubts if the three big stars could play together. :) they showed everybody that they were serious of winning a championship and played beautifully together leading to the nba's best record. :) los angeles on the other hand had a shaky start to the season with kobe asking the team that he be traded. But all ended well when trade talks ended up empty and the lakers got lucky and were able to trade for the spaniard pau gasol from the memphis grizzlies. The trade definitely strengthened the team and instantly made them championship contenders. :) with this we see management coming into play and how important it is in both team's succes. With danny ainge and boston coach doc rivers they were able to get three great players(i should also say future hall of famers) to play together and blend their talents with the rest of the team and eventually win the nba finals trophy. :) the los angeles management and phil jackson on the other hand were able to let kobe stay with the team and surround him with players that would complement him. So here is my point when it comes to investing, good management will always go a long way. :) and my next point is that good management also needs a good product in order to succeed and in basketball it is the players that is their asset. :) good products and good management are important ingredients for success just like both teams we mentioned. :)
at the start of the playoffs everybody started doubting boston already because they barely got eliminated in rounds one and two with supposedly “weaker” teams but they started playing better in the eastern conference finals dispatching the powerhouse detroit pistons and played even better in the nba finals. The los angeles lakers on the other hand continued their beautiful play from the regular season easily defeating their opponents denver and utah in rounds one and two. They even eliminated the defending champions san antonio spurs in just five games. :) there are a few factors on why the boston celtics were able to beat the lakers. :) ive read expert articles and predictions before the start of the finals and according to the so called experts in almost all the positions the lakers had the edge and 80% of them predicted that los angeles was going to win in six games. :) but what happened????? boston won it in six games with some of the factors that i am going to mention. Home court advantage as they say there is no place like home. :) boston has always been known to have one of the best fans in the nba and with your city behind you it even makes you wanna play harder. :) boston wanted it more, they just wanted to win more and it is very evident with the way they play. The perfect example was paul pierce in game one when he sprained his knee but opted to continue playing cause for him it was now or never in winning a championship which really inspired his team. They played more intense, more passionate and with more desire. Players like rondo and perkins also got injured during the series but continued playing and helping their team and i could say that they were in inspired by their leader. The team with more desire to win the game will surely win it. :) it seemed to me the intense play of the celtics “rattled” the lakers and lead them to fall apart. It is not enough to have a plan because what is really essential is having a great plan and being able to put it into action and the lakers failed in this for they got away from their game plan. :) boston's bench outplayed la's bench. During the regular season the lakers played really well because they had great support from their bench but in the finals the la bench was really outplayed what could be the reason???? i really couldnt explain but i think it boils down to who wants to win more. Boston was able to control superstar kobe bryant and he never dominated the series. How did boston do this??? by scouting and studying their opponents carefully. :) just like in investing everything starts with research and i believe is a very big factor in success. :) they controlled kobe forcing him to be more passive in offense and pass off to his teammates and make them beat boston and they never stepped up and maybe i could say they were demoralized too seeing their leader having a hard time with the celtic defense. :) if you really look at the celtic team there is nobody who could defend kobe one on one. What boston did was to have a first defender and behind him was a second defender and the rest of the team waiting for him. This is teamwork at its best. :) boston had a good plan and executed it to perfection. :) boston really played like a team passing the ball, everybody contributing and playing their roles well and playing good team defense. :) in the nba it is not enough to have talent but also to have the heart and will power to win. It is what separates the good players from the great players of the game. :) these are the players that inspire the rest of the team to follow their lead to victory. :) the 2008 boston celtics i believe was one of the best teams that this league has seen in a very long time, one with talent and heart. This was really displayed during game4 of the finals when boston overcame a 24point deficit to win the game(mind you on their opponent's home court) and only great teams have the character and capacity to accomplish feats like this. They just might have destroyed the morale of the lakers organization just like the dallas mavericks when they had their game3 blunder against the miami heat in the 2005 nba finals(the organization was never really able to recover from that loss). Hopefully this does'nt happen to the los angeles lakers for i have been a big fan since the 80's when kareem and magic were still playing but i decided this time to root for boston because i know that my “best friend” (who is a traitor) bet a lot of money for the lakers to win the series(if my sources are correct around P120K). :) and another reason for cheering for boston was that the big 3 kevin garnett, ray allen and paul pierce are all gentlemen of the game and truly deserve to win championship. :) in the more than 50 years of the nba boston and la met each other in the nba finals for the eleventh time and after this series boston has dominated la 9 wins to 2(of the 17 championships of boston 9 were at the expense of the lakers). why is that so???? i believe it is in the philosophy of the organization. Boston has always been team oriented, efficient and has always been known for their defense while la on the other hand has always been known for their big name superstars and their offense. Just a brilliant example that most of the time defense will always win over offense because with defense the margin of error is lower. :) i hope you enjoyed reading and this helps you with your investments and in life. :) good luck
ps. i didn't bet any money on the series. Hehe im just happy that boston won. :) for any comments, suggestions or questions please email me at compounder888@gmail.com. :) to a few who asked about oil, gold, biodiesel(luckily ive been researching on the subject for a few months now), commodities, food prices, food crisis and about some stuff ill try to find time to write about it. in chiefstocks we just dont talk about stocks and business but also about life and how to make it better for everyone!!! good luck and God bless you!!! till next time. :)

iba ang langhap sarap

Hello there again everyone and i do hope all is well with you. I recently just had a check up with the doctor because i have been having heartburns recently and i was afraid there was something wrong with my heart and i had a sigh of relief when the doctor said that my heart is normal and the cause of the heartburns were acid. Tsktsktsk so my advice to all of you dont skip meals and eat at the right time. :) anyway its also ironic that the topic that ill be discussing with you today is something very close to my heart, it is FOOD!!! hehehe especially fastfood. :) one thing is for sure, we all have to eat, sleep and drink. :) there were two gentlemen who e-mailed me about jollibee and whats my opinion about it. Im sorry it took me quite some time to reply and to a few other emails ill reply soon. :) Hopefully, i can explain this to you clearly. :) when i first bought jollibee three years ago it was only P24.00 per share. :) thats was after i did my research. :) jollibee back then was the number one fastfood chain in the country and still is until now. :) and i am glad to say that the philippines is one of the few countries and possibly the only country where mcdonald's is present and the latter is not the number one fastfood chain in that country. That my ladies and gentlemen is a very big testament of what a great company jollibee is(by the way im just talking of jollibee fastfood and that doesnt include the other companies that it acquired chowking, greenwich etc). Ronald mcdonald is no match for the bee here and a big part of that is the tan caktiong family which is headed by mr. Tony tan caktiong. :) a truly dynamic leader and visionary in the food industry here in the philippines. Transforming a small ice cream parlor into a fastfood chain with branches philippines even up to tawi-tawi or is it jolo im not sure exactly where but around that area which is just open on weekends. :) doesnt matter if youre just open two days a week because if i have it right its sales there every weekend is around the six digits range. :) i hope mr ronnie mcdonald can say he has a branch there. :) so if some people say that jollibee has no room to grow then its true! Where else would it open??? when it is almost everywhere now. :) when youre number one there is very little room for growth and it is so hard to stay at the top but when youre catching up then i do believe there is still a lot of room for you to grow. :) with this dillema jollibee made a great move acquiring companies and not just any company but ones within their core competence. :) great fastfood companies and restaurants. :) not like san miguel when they had no room for growth they acquired different kinds of companies even investing in the power sector????? thats not the right way to invest, it should always be something that is within your core competence. :) jollibee acquired chowking, greenwich, red ribbon, delifrance and yonghe king and i hope i didnt leave out any company. :) now with that there will be ensured growth in the company for years to come. :) so now back to jollibee to make sure things are still the same i did a survey among family, friends and employess be it young, old, rich or poor it really doesnt matter i just wanted to get the people's beat. :) the results that i got are interesting. :) among social classes a,b and c here are the results: among the a market it is almost a tie between jollibee and mcdonalds. :) the former here has a very slim lead over the latter. :) i would estimate not over 5%. :) in the b and c market it is really dominated by jollibee which i would say more or less has 60%-70% of the market share here. Im sure you guys are familiar with the social structure here in the country which is 10% - a, 20% - b and 70% - c. then you can do math with that. :) it shows you the dominance that jollibee has over mcdonalds. :) here are some of the impressions that i got doing the survey...with jollibee it appeals more to the “masa” and to the kids. People also have an impression that the food prices in jollibee is cheaper. And people prefer jollibee because of the chicken, pies, palabok and spaghetti :) a little trivia it is only here that mcdo serves spaghetti :) a true testament of jollibee's dynamism which mcdo was forced to copy. :) and jollibee's number one food is not their burgers but their chickenjoy. :) now with mcdonalds i got the impression that more sophisticated people eat here and people go there for the burgers and the fries which i also would agree but in fairness jollibee has improved with their fries the last few years but still mcdo has that edge in that department. :) but i think the one big edge that the bee has over mcdo that can never be changed is that jollibee is filipino. :) they are closer to the filipino's heart because it is truly ours and they are able to cater something that is to the filipinos liking and taste. :) i remember this jollibee advertisement 10 years ago when our country was celebrating our centenial celebration there was this advertisement of a kid and marlou aquino with the philippine flag in the background and the line at the end was “iba ang pinoy”. I believe that mcdonalds wasnt able to counter that. :) i do know that mcdonalds is also a great company and their food is great too but in the battlefield it is just like the americans and the vietnamese during the vietnam war. :) the locals just knew more about their country. :) jollibee is truly one great story of a david fighting the goliath and succeeded. :) God bless everyone and good luck in your investments. :)
ps: for any comments, suggestions or questions please email me at compounder888@gmail.com. please also feel free to answer the poll questions :) i will always make sure that there are 2 or 3 poll questions open everytime you log in. :) please forgive the typographical errors that i commit sometimes :) i just have to keep on writing when i have a good idea. :) good luck on your endeavours. :)

rice rice baby

I have always stated that the us is going to suffer a recession and i am that happy that somehow it really happened and i didnt make myself look like a fool. ;) but after that i also stated that prosperity will transfer here in asia and after a few months this year it hasnt looked promising..... tsktsktsk :-( and my dad has consistently repeated that we are in a crisis right now and after doing a little research and careful study on the subject my father was right on a lot of points and maybe without being conscious about it.... the drop in the american economy drove investors and speculators alike to buy gold, oil and other commodities as a hedge against the weakening us dollar. As a result, it drove the prices of commodities up which resulted a meteoric rise of gold and oil, even reaching new highs, with almost every machine in this world being driven by oil it resulted in rising costs in everything from transportation, food and almost everything. I still believe that there will still be a shift in capital from the us to asia because in simple plain logic any businessman or investor will always put his money where he can get better returns and asia in my opinion is the next best thing after the us right now because asset prices here are not that high compared to europe and other parts of the world. :) so it might be true that capital will probably go here after the us recession but it also came at a price. Tsktsk and then there is another, the weakening us dollar and the strengthening peso, though looking at the bigger picture it is better for our government that our currency strengthened because it will lower our foreign debt which would lower our deficit and same is true with companies with dollar loans. But in return we are also lowering the purchasing power of our dollar dependent families or families receiving remittances from abroad. From P55 to P41 is a 25% decrease so if your receiving $1,000 a month a few years ago it would translated into P55,000 in expenses be it groceries, shopping or investing but now it is only worth P41,000. Ofw family budgets are definitely affected. Then you have to factor in the fact that basic commodity prices have been rising lately. Tsktsktsk gasoline has been steadily increasing the last few years. When i first started driving diesel was at P9.80 per liter imagine that???? below P10 a liter and maybe that was 10 years ago then when i had my own car in college it was at P15.00 already and now its at the P40 range already. Tsktsktsk i will put it in numbers so that you will understand the impact it has on our daily lives.:) 
diesel is increasing at a rate of 15% per annum. tsktsk and i think it will keep on going up and with that expect fares to also go up. And i think the most serious crisis of them all right now is the rice shortage which is a staple to the filipino diet. :) they say that there is a rice shortage and i really dont know the truth behind it. Some say that this is a ploy of the government so that the people will forget about the zte deal scandal. I really dont know but what i do know right now is that a solution should be made for the rice prices to stop rising and to stabilize. Tsktsk im calling all the rice hoarders to please release whatever rice they may have for the betterment of our country. If you keep hoarding rice at this time i believe it is tantamount to economic sabotage and the government should do something about it. :) i have even heard stories that the warehouses of these rice hoaders when they were being checked up by the officials were empty but the truth of the matter is that their stock were in barges in the middle of nowhere. Calling officials please do something about this. I really dont know the truth about this. But that is the story thats been going around. Maybe its just a rumor or maybe its the truth i really dont know but every avenue to fix the rice shortage should be checked by the top men of the nfa. :) please do something about this!! :) according to my friend from the media holp-ups, burglaries and related crimes have been increasing lately which is probably because of desperate attempts for money. These are desperate attempts for money and to be able to provide for their family. Tsktsktsk another sign that a lot of the population are having money problems or hardships. Tsktsktsk im sure the government realizes this and businessmen should expect an increase in wages soon. Tsktsktsk can you see the pattern???? its a vicious cycle!!! everybody is affected in this. :) talked to a college classmate who is now an executive in the sm department store and she told me that the sales have dropped in almost all of their branches and they attribute this because of the rice shortage and it being a staple of every family. Families have to adjust their budgets for the increase of price in rice. Tsktsktsk im sure there will be bad debts here and there because of the crisis but it wont reach that level of the us subprime crisis so we dont have to worry about that. :) let us hold on tight, it will be a bumpy ride in the next few months but i know there is light at the end of the tunnel. :) every economy will undergo its ups and downs and this is something that we have to surpass. :) to put it in simple words i dont know what the market is suffering from right now. Is it just a slight fever of flu i really cant diagnose it. Hehehe :) just continue to do research and continue to find for diamonds in the rough. :) bargains are to be found at this time. :) patience is a virtue. :) i still expect oil and gold to keep on going up so better buy your loved ones some jewelry while its still cheap. :) God bless. :)
p.s. For any comments, questions or suggestions please email me at compounder888@gmail.com. And for questions sent to me by email last week i'll answer them soon. :)

death, taxes and rising prices

Im inclined to write another article about this one because i just cant stop myself from doing so and that i cant stop people around me from talking about it. :) how many times have we heard our elders talk.... “when i was still a kid coca-cola was only worth P0.10” or “when i was in high school batchoy was just just P0.30” or “when i was still in school my allowance was just P5.00 a week” or “your grandfather bought this lot for only P10.00 per square meter”. :) hopefully someday i can also say that.... “i first bought urc at P6.40 per share.” or “mbt was just selling for P25.00 per share when i started investing in stocks.” :) but these stories are all so true. :) they say that the two absolute things in life are death and taxes and i could say one of the ALMOST absolute things in life should be rising prices in almost all things. :) and that also applies with stocks but.......... only with quality stocks. As warren buffett said “when holding a great stock time is your best friend but when holding a bad stock time is your worst enemy.” When i say quality stocks they are the ones with a solid business with room for growth and at the same time they have solid and honest management :) but just because those two things are present in a company it doesnt that you'll buy them right away but you wait for them to drop to a certain price wherein you could get superior long term returns. :) but that is easier said than done because one of the hardest parts in investing is the waiting...... waiting for the right price that is. :) i have done some calculations of some basic stuff that we consume like coke has increased at an average of 8.25% per annum in the last 50 years and batchoy has increased at an average of almost 12% per year. :) which brings compounding back in my head. :) im a social smoker i must admit and i have to admit that the figures and future compounded returns or losses that is could drive me to stop smoking once and for all. Lets calculate here: if i smoke a ream of cigarettes every month with the cost of a ream for the sake of simplicity at around P300 which is P3,600 in a year. And now making assumptions here are the results. This will be the money that i lost if i had foregone smoking and instead invested it in stocks:
15% per annum in 15 years P29,293.42
in 20 years P58,919.53
in 25 years P118,508.23
in 30 years P238,362.38
20% per annum in 15 years P55,465.28
in 20 years P138,015.36
in 25years P343,426.38
in 30 years P854,554.73
this is the power of compounding to you at its finest. :) and i still havent mentioned the mounting medical bills because of heart, lung, bad gums, bad teeth, insomia, yellowish fingertips and a weaker immune system caused by smoking and not to mention that men are more prone to impotence when they smoke. Phew!!!! so in the end you will lose more than the figures that i mentioned above. :) again remember that health is wealth so dont kill yourself working for money. Enjoy it also every once in awhile. :) i have made up my mind to buy a nikon dslr the d80 model. But please i dont want to count the future income that i will lose if i buy this camera..... its my new hobby and you need to have a diversion every now and then. :) enjoy life but also be prudent. God bless you always and good luck with your investments. :)

vantage point and questions

Hello there again to all of you. :) i watched the movie vantage point with my girlfriend and friends and it made me think. :) the truth and your actions really do depend from your vantage point. :) this is true in our everyday lives, politics, work, love and almost everything. I'll touch on that more as we go along. :) i have been busy the last few weeks with business, work and a lot of things but i always try to make it a point to find time to write in my blog for it has become a new passion of mine. :) my dad and i have been to makati a few times in the last month to look for other business interests or alternatives if you want to call it. :) this is a result of very low interest rates in the bank. :) i believe most businessmen right now are doing the same thing, looking for an asset to give you a better rate of return than the bank. :) my dad is really not a big fan of the stock market not really because it is a bad investment but because he cant take the volatility or the uncertainty of the market. He would rather put his money somewhere else more stable even though it has a lower return. :) that is his comfort zone. :) he would rather have a tangible investment or something he could see and he couldnt understand the point of owning “paper” as an asset. But that is beside the point because the point is that you should do whatever you are comfortable with and understand and sooner or later you will succeed. :) we were in batangas last week to look around and i would like to ask what do you think of batangas for an investment because they say that it is the next big thing and after manila and makati the trend is now going there??? that is what they say so what can you say about it? The ayalas are there already and so is wton properties by lucio tan. :) how about laguna??? is it good to invest there??? we also went to the santa lucia mall in cainta, rizal and we were impressed and we might put up a restaurant there. :) is real estate really going to boom? Or will real estate falter because most of the projects being built right now are catered to the ofws but the big problem that that market is facing is a stronger peso meaning that their buying power is somewhat affected. But is it also possible that there will be a real estate oom because of low interest rates??? it is really a tough call but i still believe that in the end the latter is the most likely result but lets wait and see because time will tell. :) gold is now trending up strongly and needs less than 3% to hit the 1,000 level. :) and i will not be surprised if it that happends in the next few weeks. :) there are still a lot of bargains in the market and if i only had a lot of cash id surely buy some more. Tsktsktsk ALI is going to issue P1billion worth of securites to finance their plans of buying more properties and the question that im going to ask is that what will be the effect on the stock price and is this a wise move by the company? :) another question that i'll ask is that what has happened to the stock buyback of AC??? i havent checked lately but i do hope that they are still buying. :) so okay what has happened lately??? my “best friend” who betrayed me got an injury in his knee during a basketball game. My girlfriend has a stalker!!! hehehe i dont know how to react should i be pissed or be happy about it? But anyway the good thing is that her stalker hasnt been any problem lately but if that do happens i'll really report him to the police. And a word on the current political situation, please let us work together and just let the president finish her term. Let us look at the bigger picture lets stop fighting and get some work done. Let us work together. Good luck to everyone and God bless. :)
p.s. for any comments, questions or suggestions please email me at compounder888@gmail.com

nba trades and panics

Panic is contagious and it can happen anywhere. :) being a basketball lover myself, the events that happened the last few weeks just before the nba trading deadline expired made me realize that panic can strike anywhere. :) in the nba's west division this panic started when the los angeles lakers were able to get pau gasol for memphis which all of a sudden made them a championship contender. This trade gave their team a legimate center and a filled a very important piece in a phil jackson team, a big man who could pass the ball. But pau gasol is not just a good passing big man but is also a low post threat and a great defender and when andrew bynum gets back from injury they will surely be a great frontcourt(thank goodness they were able to get kwame brown out of the team). Then with this development the phoenix suns were also forced to make a move which resulted to getting shaquille o'neal in exchange for shawn marion. :) i do agree with this move because you need a big man to survive in the nba playoffs which the suns have sorely needed the last few years. But the problem with this trade was that they had to give up a very importat piece in their team. I mean dont get me wrong the phoenix suns are still a great team and will still be one of the best teams in the nba but they wont be a great without shawn marion their team. I consider him a very important piece that made their team click. He is one of the few players in the nba who could defend all positions from point guard to center. He gives you everything points, rebounds, some shooting and defense and also not to mention he is also a great finisher of the fastbreak. :) but still all is not lost for the suns got shaq who we can say is at the twlight of his career but still his presence will surely help any team. They would now be a slower team than before but now more battle ready for the playoffs assuming that shaq stays healthy. :) then the next team that i believe made good moves also would be the san antonio spurs signing kurt thomas a great low post defender and a very solid player and also damon stoudamire a very reliable point guard to relieve tony parker. :) the spurs have just made their once very solid team into a very very solid team with their core still intact i could say that they are still the team to beat. :) with the top teams beefing up in the west guess who made the worst moves you guessed it right MARK CUBAN. Hehehe the dallas mavericks made a very disastrous move. :) sure getting jason kidd is great but overall i think they took a step backward. :) they gave up devin harris who is a very promising player and they got a player to play a position that i believed was adequate enough in the first place. Jason kidd is great but we must admit he is now on a downtrend. :) at 35 years old that is just too old for a point guard. There's maybe just a year or two left in him while devin harris is an all-star in the making. And if you really come to think of it teams in the west made moves to strengthen their interior then so why make a move to strengthen the teams backcourt when it was okay in the first place??? as they say if its not broken then why fix it. :) they should have gotten an interior player ala kurt thomas coulve done more good to their team than getting jason kidd. This move didnt have any margin of safety there is so little room for error. This would mean that its all or nothing for the dallas mavericks this season. Tsktsk what the mavericks did also happens in our market. I believe that it is called institutinal panic when a competitor does something whether it is right or wrong most of the time the other competitors would usually copy that move. :) what happened the last few weeks in the nba is a clear example of that. :) this institutional panic that happens in our market could sometimes open the door for us value investors to get some bargains. So let us always be ready. :) remember what buffett said “i would rather pay for a great company for a fair price than to pay for a good company at a great price.” good luck and God bless. :)

happy valentine's day

Happy valentine's day to everyone!!! :) as of this very moment there is a very intense debate in financemanila and the topic being which is better technical investing or value investing. :) well its been a lively discussion the last few days and all i can say is that(just like in this popular ad a few years ago “kung saan ka masaya te supportahan ta ka!”(wherever you are happy i will support you). :) you dont have to follow a successful investor's style but just get bits and pieces of it. I say this because when you practice a particular style you have to be really comfortable with it because there is no perfect style or system. All systems have its advantages and disadvantages also so you should be able to take its downside to be able to appreciate its upside. :) doesnt this sound so familiar??? its as if im talking about a girlfriend or a wife but i believe that it is really true. :) being a value investor can you withstand a 20% or 30% drop in your portfolio??? sometimes you have to stomach it for you to be able to enjoy long term gains. :) so whats new?? nothing much but i have been extra busy the last two weeks... i was in manila with my father for work and we also consulted our financial advisor and thank goodness we agree on most points. :) the philippines is doing well and will continue to do so in the next few years even with the us downturn. :) but we agreed that the selling of government assets is not sustainable so the next president will really have a problem with this. Tsktsktsk we also talked about asset allocation of one portfolio but this is one whole topic altogether. :) we also talked about real estate prospects here in the philippines in the next decade. :) we expect the real estate sector to do well because of the low interest rates businessman will be forced to get their money out of banks because they would rather put it somewhere else that could give them a better return on their capital and real estate and financial markets would be a good choice and maybe you could also include currencies. :) we also talked about a university being a great business because it incorporates a good business and then real estate. :) even the taipans agree with him. :) henry sy being the second biggest stockholder in far eastern university and he is also offering to buy this school which i cannot mention as of the moment and also lucio tan also now owning university if the east. :) last february 1 the headlines of the philippine star was the philippines record growth. :) i believe a big factor of this was played by our present environment of low inerest rates. :) we will survive and do well in the next few years i believe because asia now is more mature and will be able to take all the bumps and bruises. :) but dont take my word for it. Continue to do your research and then buy great companies at great prices. :) good luck :) God bless :)

words of sir john templeton

to buy when others are despondently selling and to sell when others are avidly buying requires the greatest fortitude and pays the greatest potential reward.

crazy mister market

Its been two weeks since i wrote an article here and a lot has happened. :) i attended my friend's wedding and i was beside my businessman friend and we talked about our idols in philippine business, his being john gokongwei and mine being henry sy. Both have a different approach to business but they both get results and as they say “you cant argue with success.” :) i will talk about them more in the future. The us markets have gone crazy and maybe i can say that they are in now a semi-panic. And i would agree that it is contagious and our local market here has also gone wild and maybe we could make a documentary or movie about this and the title would be “markets gone wild.” :) hehehe just when the markets showed technical signs that it was going to make a rally then it goes down hard and then it had sucessive days of increase then it goes down again. Its like a crazy rollercoaster ride. :) i think it is starting to become clear now that the us is going into a recession and the question is... is greenspan a genius or the source of all the problems the us are experiencing now? :) a genius because he was able to keep the us economy afloat for how many years or should he blamed for delaying the envitable recession which is now hitting the us hard because it came a couple of years late? :) you be the judge! :) and the next us election will really be critical and who knows what just might happen. :) personally id like to see barrack obama get into the white house. :) it would be nice to see an african-american in the oval office but the question is that if the us is ready for a black president. :) ill just write here whatever pops into my head and of course it chould also be relevant to finance and investments. :) commodities have been hot lately with the recent us downturn. :) this might just be the golden years of gold!!! hehehe but dont expect it to be a smooth ride just last week gold was as high as $920 then went to as low as $850 and then increased around 7.5% in just 60 hours and reached $920. :) phew! Im just thankful my stomach has been able to take the market turbulence lately. :) we have been infected with this market panic. And what is the result of that???? bargains, bargains and bargains in the market. :) to name even a few theres meg, chi, mbt, chib, sm, jfc, ac, ali and kpm has been strongly trending up even with the market volatility as of late. :) last january 23 the philippine daily inquirer had for its headlines “global stock plunge” and then on the same day most markets around the world took back those losses and also the day after, this just shows how fickle minded the market is. :) thats how mr market is. :) i have seen the fs of urc and what can i say? Im happy its condition has been the same since the first time i took notice of it 4years ago. It still has s solid balance sheet and even though its income statement has a nig investment gain in it i could still say that it is a bargain in its current price. :) its international line still hasnt taken off i might add. :) well i would agree that it is in a boring industry but does that follow that profits are also boring??? :) its profits are in the billions and i would expect it to continue in the next couple of years. :) id like to invest in the market with the current prices but im still strapped for cash because i paid for my restaurant investment with friends that we put up in laguna. :) so ill gather up ammo first then wait for bargains but as for the moment ill just stay put and just watch from the sidelines. Tsktsktsk last january 20, i attended my friend's(high school classmate) wedding and intimate reception at his wife's home. It was a fun event being able to be with close friends it always a refreshing and enjoyable experience. :) the next day i shared the photos that i took during the wedding with another classmate of ours who is in new york and i realized how easy it is now in this age of computers and digital technology. :) if its that easy to now send information to any part of the world i could assume that it is also that easy to send money to anywhere in the world. :) so what am i driving at??? that dont be surprised if foreign money will go in to asia soon. :) there is nothing special with my reasoning it is all about common sense and simple logic. :) remember that if only 2 people have the same idea out of 10 it means that what you have is something special. :) in other words contrarian is the way to go. :) dinagyang was a lot of fun this weekend here in iloilo. :) you should be here next year to join all the fun!!! :) good luck and God bless to everybody and hold it in. :)

the year that was and the year ahead

Happy new year again to everybody and good luck to a year of trading and investing. :) its been a busy year so far! Phew! I helped organize and attended my friends wedding, after that i got sick because of the stress and also maybe because of fatigue and then i was in binan, laguna last friday to attend the opening of our restaurant business with friends. :) i hope this business venture of ours will turn out great and give us great returns. :) i also got life insurance from my best friend and the truth of the matter is that i didnt want to get any insurance policies because the money that im going to pay for them is my investing money. Tsktsktsk i would rather invest them myself and im sure i would be able to get better returns. It would give me a 5.5% compounded return in 20 years. Tsktsk its not that good but i would like to look at it like a time deposit in the bank. :) so all is well after all. :) then just before new year i bought a ream of cigarettes and i did some computing, in 15 years a ream of cigarettes would be worth P1,000 already. So smoke all you can while its still cheap!!! hehehe im just joking. :) i will do a study on that next time on why you shouldnt be smoking. :) i will give you the reasons both health-wise and money-wise. :)
now its time to talk about investing!!! what do i predict this year??? i dont have any but i do know that i will continue to buy great companies at fair prices. :) from a technical point of view had a chat with spyfrat and according to him it will be the year of commodities, the psei will be really volatile in the short term and might stabilize maybe around march, gold can reach $1,000 before the first half of the year ends(as of last trading day gold closed at $895) and the US will really be falling prey to a recession. :) what is the difference with our situation now and the asian crisis 10 years ago. :) one of the reasons why the bubble burst 10 years ago was that because everything was overvalued, we started to run even before we learned to walk. Now that the us is in a financial crisis you can expect that there will be a shift of capital from the us to asia. :) 10 years ago there was still no china and india factor and in the next few years they will both lead the charge in asia's rise. :) asia is now more mature now economically and can now face the world. :) asia i believe is still undervalued and will soon catch with europe and the us. :) its all part of the economic cycle:what comes up must come down and once your down you have nowhere to go but up. :) hehehe the us is a credit economy and the average american has $20 in their wallet. :) i think that the filipinos are better off and have more than P1,000 in their wallet. :) i remember this story of some friends in hong kong, its a story when they were handed back to china. :) chinese from the mainland started coming to hong kong signature shops and shopped like crazy. :) and believe it or not they paid with cash. :) they still didnt have credit cards. :) and they say that china is overheating??? i think that its still growing because it still has a lot of catching up with the western world. :) china is still in a growing stage! :) the philippines will ride the wave that china has created. :) lets wait and see what happens. :) as for the philippine stock market??? i think it will continue to improve but dont take my word for it because you never know what mood mr market is in. :)im hoping for a 15-20% return by the market this year. :) im really now sure what the market will do this year but i do hope mr market will be generous enough to give me some bargains this year. :)
for any comments, suggestions, questions or whatever please email me at compounder888@gmail.com

as sure as the sun will rise

Its been a very busy christmas :) the season has now a different meaning when you age, i now understand what the older people have been saying all the while hehehe :) but anyway its been a joyous christmas for me and even though my wallet has been massacred with all the gifts and “tips” to people im still happy to see the smile in their faces. :) this article will be my little christmas gift to all of you readers of my blog. :) the last two weeks we have seen the steady rise in the share price of digitel communications. :) and why is that??? because of speculation of a takeover by a singaporean company and a few other offers from others. :) the talk thats going around is that they are offering $900m but mr gokongwei wants to sell at $1b and that is why the negotiations are still in limbo. Time will tell what will happen to this company. I will tell you a little story what lead me to research about this company. :) i like this company and even liked it better when i saw the numbers. :) i saw hidden value in the company or maybe you could say that i saw promise or potential in its product. :) it was undervalued because the company was still losing money. :) this is still value investing but with a twist. :) i only so two things happening to this company: it making money or an investor buys it at its fair value or even at a premium. :) my family got more than 50 lines at sun cellular for our employees because we wanted to save on out telephone calls. :) they are the only network offering unlimited text and calls to the same network. :) after a few months of using my sun i realized the cost savings our company got. :) then i realized how lucky we are to have discovered the wonders and advantages of using sun cellular and it would just be a matter of time also before millions of people discover it also. :) good thing i still found the draft i made last september for sun cellular but i decided to hold it and wait for the write time to put it here. I believe there is no better time to write about it. :) my draft is dated september 12, 2007 and i have already been studying the company for two months prior to writing the draft and then i accumulated shares after a month. :) i gathered information and data and i had to be resourceful to get it from reliable sources. :) good thing i had friends who were associated with the company. :) what ill be writing down is the important points that i made in my draft. :) the big advantage that sun cellular has over other networks is their unlimited calls and texts to the same network. :) the other networks will have a hard time offering this service because it will really hurt their income but sun cellular was built to cater this unlimited service to their subscribers. :) i remember my brother-in-law saying that in cebu it is “in” if you have a sun phone. :) here is also another point in my draft, in the short term i dont expect sun to grab market share because the other networks still have superior service but i can see that sun will become a “secondary” number but they are now improving their signal, adding more cell sites and now has better coverage. If they keep up the good work they might grab a big slice of the pie. :) i can see sun cellular making money in two to three years but if you really want to be conservative maybe five years. :) sun is full blast in metro manila and in metro cebu which are the two major cities and they also have good coverage here in iloilo and to my surprise even in the towns outside the city. :) they are adding more cell sites in the visayas and mindanao area. Sun is doing well in davao and cebu because there are a lot of companies there and companies here in iloilo are also catching up the the sun cellular craze because sun gives you cost savings. I dont expect smart and globe will see a decrease in their subscriber base but i do believe that they will see a decrease in usage by their subscribers. A company should have a good manager and the gokongweis fit the bill. I admire them and believe of their capabilities of taking the company to the next level. The father started it all but the son knows how to unlock shareholder value. :) here are some of the numbers that i ran into during my research :) as per research the subscriber base as of september now reached 3million(this is an estimate) and at the end of 2006 the number was 2.2million. :) the company is expected to profit at 4 million subscribers and the long term target is 6 million subscribers. :) they have 30,000 dsl customers and the target is 50,000. :) the company's capex for 2007 is $200 and $150m will be on the cellphone business and $50m will be spent on the dsl business. :) the $150million budget for the cellular business means that their target of 40-50 cell sites per month is very much attainable. :) with these numbers i can only see good things happening to this company. Merry christmas and a happy new year to all!!! God bless!
ps. for questions, comments or suggestions please email me at compounder888@gmail.com
before i go as of last wednesday santa claus rally has been confirmed by the market! Hope this is a strong rally! Fly high psei!!!

economies and christmas

Its been a very busy past few days... phew! Im really tired because i had to attend a christmas party last friday night and went home late then had to wake up at five in the morning the next day for a trip to manila witm my father and then get back home late in the afternoon and then attended a friend's party at his bar. Wow! Then the next morning went to mass and had lunch with relatives for my maternal grandmother's 90th birthday. :) thank you lord for my very wonderful grandma. :) then in the afternoon i had coffee with a friend and then attended a christmas party with our employees and i really had a good time watching their presentations and enjoyed watching them participate in the games. :) then im here now in my room in bed trying to write something for this blog. :)
last saturday with my dad in the airport we got to talk to a businessman friend and about china and a lot of other stuff about business. :) he mentioned that the bad debt rate in china is 32% which is even worse than the us subprime crisis. And his question was that why isnt it affecting china the way it does in the us??? i really cant answer that question also. :) and besides i have to verify the numbers that he was saying. :) but i agree with what he said that as of the moment china will just keep on moving up because there is a lot of money going in because of the coming beijing olympics in 2008. i remember my cousin telling us when we were there for vacation last november 2006 that china is really preparing for this event because it will be their coming out party and tell the world that “we have arrived!” my dad's friend cautioned that the stock market in 2008 will go down especially after the china olympics because we dont know if investors will continue to pour the money in or will they take it all out. :) well he has a very good contention and all opinions are correct until they are proven wrong. :) hehehe but i think otherwise, and some say that i am nuts or too optimistic but i believe that it is just common sense. Assets or i should say most assets by nature in the long term really increase in price or it is inflationary. Can you think of assets that decreased in price after 20. 30, 40 or 50 years. :) i bet you can only think of a few things that decreased in price. :) and i also believe that economies of nations or regions move in cycles or periods. :) as the saying goes “when youre down you have nowhere to go but up” and “when youre up you have nowhere to go but down.” :) and that really applies with economies also. :) the last decade the united states had one of the greatest bull markets in history and of course as they say “all good things come to an end.” :) i believe that the signal for the downtrend was the sub-prime crisis which was triggered by granting of too much credit which almost always happens in a very bullish environment. :) and of course the cost of living in progressive countries is almost always high and the opposite usually happens in not-so-progressive countries. :) which asia as a whole is catering to the world. :) its cheap labor and products. :) slowly asia is now catching up with the rest of the world led by china and india. With more jobs to people would also mean higher consumption and sooner or later would also drive commodities, basic goods and asset prices up. This is a perfect example of the law of supply and demand at work. :) when everything gets too expensive in progressive countries it forces the market to look for cheaper alternatives(just like a housewife looking to buy groceries at the cheapest store.). Does this explain the emergence of call centers all over asia??? :) i just cant wait for the day that we can be at par with the us hehehe it might a dream right now but who nows in time. :) i wish everyone a merry christmas and that the spirit if christmas is in giving. I was just talking or maybe complaining is the better word of all my expenses to a friend this december for gifts and treats but i realized that there is so much to be thankful for. :) it is also nice to give back to family and friends all the blessings that you have received. :) thank you lord for everything. :) let this be a christ-filled christmas for all of us. :) God bless and a merry christmas to all. :)

irrational mr market

mr. market is now showing signs of life and then just today it drops almost 2%? hehehe well thats the market for you. IRRATIONAL. :) and this is something that we all have to deal with. sometimes the market can be overly generous and sometimes it could also be very stingy. And it is in our better judgment at what price we buy the stock that we like. :) its been almost five years that ive been trading seriously and i even started out as a technical trader but i fell in love with value investing because of its simplicity and the two most important things that you need are:common sense and patience. :) which i dont know how but i realized that i have both of these traits. Hehehe :) i still believe that the market will still make a rally for the yearend but let us just wait and see. :) there is really nothing much i can comment about the market right now except that if you see a bargain just buy it if you can see that it could give you excellent long term returns.
A lot has happened since my last post. :) my best friend asked for a lunch meeting with me and admitted his mistake and asked for an apology which i accepted but i have to admit that i still have a little hatred towards him for that betrayal but in time i know i will forget what happened. Meanwhile my cousin has avoided or maybe you could call it refused to talk with me for fear that i might scold her. Well who i am to do that she is old enough and i assume that she knows what shes doing. :) my dad and i went to manila also last week because his friend wanted to consult him about investing in real estate. His friend has a lot of cash but due to the low interest rates he is forced to put his money elsewhere or a better return on his capital. :) talking to some of the high officials of a few banks they can see that interest rates will be around this level for the next five years which i can say is LOW. :) my dad also shares the same sentiment and i believe the different classes of assets will continue to appreciate in the near future and that includes stocks. :) but what scares people from getting into the market is if the “bubble” bursts just like what happened 10 years ago. In that aspect as far as im concerned the philippine stock market is still fairly valued and even undervalued a bit. And bubbles only happens when everything is overpriced and with this assumption i think our market is still healthy with the occasional ups and downs. :) which is typical of mr market. :)
i just celebrated my birthday a few days ago and i kinda got the “birthday blues” as they call it but thanks to friends, someone special and family i had a great day. :) i thank the lord for all the blessings and for all the people close to me. God bless to everyone and good luck.
p.s. For any comments, suggestions and questions please email me at compounder888@gmail.com

trillanes rally

Mr trillanes made headlines again last thursday by holding that “coup” if you would like to call it. :) i admire our government on how they handled the situation. :) they had to use some kind of “force” to stop that stunt and to show others who would also like to destabilize the government that they mean business. I admit that president gma also has her faults but we have to look at it in a bigger picture by weighing things. There is no question that there is corruption in our government but my point on president gma remaining as president is for the fact that she knows what shes doing and she knows how to run the country and all the destabilizing plots will just be in vain. All these plots to unseat the president doesnt do us any good :) why not do something positive and help our country progress and improve!!!???!!! :) president gma is not a perfect president but she is the best person for the job right now and it is time for us to work together and help bring glory back to our country. :) and now lets talk about our favorite topic the stock market. :) my sister is interested in buying stocks for the long term and as she puts for her baby's college education. :) i can see two stocks right now that really fit the mold. :) and i told her to get some of it tomorrow! :) i do hope she has the stomach to withstand the ups and downs of the market. :) i have a friend who commented that i should have sold my shares in this certain company awhile back when it was trading at its high. Well he has the point but why cant he get my point that i buy the company and not the stock. :) i study a company and if i like it, i just wait for it to get to a price where it could give me a superior long term returns. :) its that simple really but why cant he get it??? I buy the company and it really doesnt matter to me if the market doesnt like or if the price is depressed(if its depressed doesnt it follow that its a bargain???) because all im after is buying a great company at a fair price just like what warren buffett said. :) that is one of the mysteries of the stock market because in real everyday situations people dont act like that. As they say the market is irrational. :) as ive told you before if you like a pair of shoes you usually dont wait for the price to go up and buy it, what people usually do is wait for a sale and then buy it. :) but in the market people do that opposite and i really cant explain why that is so. :) as the famous technical trader william o'neal said “the two most dominant emotions that dominate the market is fear and hope.” said but for me the best approach is to buy low and sell high because its the one that makes the most sense. :) if you are a technical investor i believe that this is the best time to buy shares because as of last friday the market has indicated that there was follow-through buying and it has triggered a rally and it is just in time for the santa claus rally that usually happens every december and january. How far the market will go up we'll never know and only time will tell. :) good luck on all your trades this december. :) God bless and take care. :)
p.s. If the market does rally we might as well call it the trillanes rally than the santa claus rally! :)

bargains and hurting

Its a lazy sunday afternoon after playing a ballgame where our opponent won the game against us by 20points tsktsktsk and here i am relaxing my aching muscles and beaten up ego because i had a bad game and we will have our knock game against the same team this coming tuesday but the catch here is that we also have a semifinal game in another basketball club this coming tuesday also at the same time. Phew..... how am i to go about this??? im reading this book right now “the winning investment habits of warren buffett and george soros” by mark tier and its really good. :) i am enjoying reading it. :) im a bit disappointed with the performance of the stock market lately and it would seem to me that mr. Market is upset about something lately. Which i believe is the subprime crisis in the us. But its okay i still believe that the market is undervalued by my count and ive been trying to accumulate some shares of a few companies. I will tell you more about it next time and this is a good time to accumulate shares of companies because mr. Market is being generous right now better take advantage of it. :) there are good finds in the market and do your research well and you will surely find them. :) ive been very busy lately... phew! Been busy with work and especially that a group of friends and i decided to franchise a fastfood restaurant somewhere in luzon and another group of friends and i just opened a printing business. :) phew! Ive been very busy lately indeed. :) and also i have discovered lately that besides work and the stock market or investing as my passion you can also add to it photography and its one hobby that i want to develop and learn more. :) and i have been bothered about something that happened to me a few weeks ago and i hope you guys wont mind me talking about it here. The first weekend of the month i was out with my friends and the group included my best friend and a close relative. And the story goes like this we had fun drinks, laughs and all but i went ahead because i really dont like to stay out that late when i go out and according to sources they disappeared at around 4 in the morning when a friend had too much to drink and was throwing up and all of a sudden my guy best friend(who has a wife with two kids and a mistress and a number of girls that i couldnt even keep count and by the way he was also making out with some girl he just met before he was with my cousin) and that relative of mine was nowhere to be found and when friends were calling her she wasnt answering the phone which made me very worried and at the same time suspicious. The only viable place where they could go was a hotel nearby and the sad part was that they forgot that some of the personnel there used to work for our hotel also before and some of those personnel were able to identify my cousin and i couldve let go of the situation but what really pissed my off was that they both denied it and continued to lie to me(which is a clear sign of guilt and it also shows that what they did was wrong) and with that i decided to call some of my contacts and get professional help and they were able to get hold of some very important information like the credit card receipt and the hotel registration card which sad to say the guy has just no respect for me even used my name(his best friend) in the form and also i got a copy of the video where it shows my relative returning the key to the said room in the registration form which to me if you bring it to court is really hard evidence and you could even say that you could convict them “guilty beyond reasonable doubt.” and the very upsetting thing was that he doesnt know i was able to get a transcript of his calls and text messages and he is even “coaching” my relative to lie but the sad part is that i know the whole story and all the lies that he will throw to me wont just do any good and makes me hate him even more. That really hurts me because i have been a good friend for such a long time and i know i might not be perfect and we may have had our arguments from time to time but i always helped him out during his time of need be it with his wife, mistress and even up to the point of covering up for him(sad to say the wife is my “kumare”) but he is still my best friend and made that choice to help him out and he knows that im really close to my relative and even treat her like a sister. When it comes to playing around my relative was suppose to be out of the question already(which i believe he knows and could be proven with him lying to me a sure sign that he knows that he did something wrong). I dont know if i really have reason to be upset or is this something that i should just let go. But i was really hurt with what they did but i believe that the blame falls more on my best friend. Ive made ways for him to know that im upset and that i know what happened and im not just fishing around for information. If you really come to think about it i have the hard evidence to show his wife(who i believe is also unhappy) which surely would end their marriage and to his mistress who i know suspects that he has other women also other than her and his wife. I can also show it to his family that sad to say he was able to manipulate for how many years already. I have been a good friend but why the betrayal?? what have i done wrong to him that he did that to me? For the meantime i will just wait and see and do nothing just like in investing. Wishing you guys a good trading week and i hope to hear from you. Im really trying my best to forgive them and maybe i have already i just dont know. Time will tell i guess. Im just praying to the dear lord that i will forgive them but i was really hurt with the betrayal. Phew! What a month so far? God bless everyone. :) carpe diem!

common stock prices and values

This is taken from Benjamin Graham's book the interpretation of financial statements chapter 33
Broadly speaking, the price of common stocks is governed by the prospective earnings. These prospective earnings are, of course, a matter of estimate or foresight; and the action of the stock market on this point is usually controlled by the indicated trend. The trend is gauged in turn from the past record and current data, although at times the expectation of some quite new development will pay a determining part.
The price of common stocks will depend, therefore, not so much on past or current earnings in themselves upon what the security buying public thinks the future earnings will be. (there are also important influences of a general or technical nature affecting stock prices-such as credit, political, and psychological conditions-which may not be closely related to any estimate of future earnings; but such influences will either eventually reflect themselves in the earnings or else prove to be quite temporary.)
In the ordinary case the price of a common stock is the resultant of many estimates of what the earnings are going to be in the next six months, in the next year, or even further in the future. Some of these estimates may be entirely incorrect and some may be exceedingly accurate; but the buying and selling by the many people who make these various estimates is what mainly determines the present price of a stock.
The accepted idea that a common stock should sell at a certain ratio to its current earnings must be considered more the result of practical necessity than of logic. The market takes the trend or future prospects into account by varying this ratio for different types of companies. Common stocks of enterprises with only slight possibilities of increasing profits ordinarily sell at a rather low price-earning ratio(less than 15 times their current earnings); and the common stocks of companies with good prospects of increasing the earnings usually sell at high price-earnings ratio (over 15 times the current earnings). Thus, two common stocks may show the same current earnings per share, may be paying the same dividend rate, and be in equally good financial condition. Yet stock ABC may be selling at twice the price of stock XYZ simply because security buyers believe that stock ABC is going to earn a good deal more than XYZ next year and the years after.
When neither boom nor deep depression is affecting the market, the judgment of the public on individual issues, as indicated by market prices, is usually quite good. If the market price of some issue appears out of line with the facts and figures available, it will often be found later that the price is discounting future developments not then apparent on the surface. There is, however, a frequent tendency on the part market to exaggerate the significance of changes in earnings both in a favorable and unfavorable direction. This is manifest in the market as a whole in periods of both boom and depression, and it is also evidenced in the case of individual companies at other times.
At bottom the ability to buy securities-particularly common stocks-successfully is the ability to look ahead accurately. Looking backward, however carefully, will not suffice, and may do more harm than good. Common stock selection is a difficult art-naturally, since it offers large rewards for success. It requires a skillful mental balance between the facts of the past and the possibilities of the future.

scattered thoughts

Over lunch my mom was complaining that the pawnshop business that it wasnt as good as before and then we tried to analyze why that is so. Some of the few things that we concluded was that number one there were too many pawnshops in the country now before it was just in the cities and people from towns would still go to the city to pawn but now almost all towns have a pawnshop. There was a time during enrollment where people were lining up and crowding pawnshops to pawn jewelry to send their children to school or students who still didnt get their money from their parents during enrollment. :) but now business has really gone down and i believe that everybody in the pawnshop business is experiencing this. Another factor is the faster transfer of money like atms and remittance service within the philippines and from people abroad who are sending money here. This the reason why we should thank the millions of ofws who are working hard to make life better for their loved ones here in the country. They have made life better for a lot of filipinos. Ofws are truly our modern day heroes. :) with the peso strengthening some of the buying power of dollar earning filipinos might be lost but it is better for the country as a whole. Let us strive to help and improve our country. Another thought that went through my head the last few days was when my dad mentioned that when my grandfather built their house in 1962 it cost around P120,000 and then with my very curious head i started making calculations a conservative estimate of building the same house today would cost around P20,000,000 and that would mean a compounded return of 12.05% for 45years. Not so bad for real estate. :) :) :) here are also some of the things that happened during the last week.... gold has reached more than $790 and i expect the strong upsurge to continue over the next few years and i see gold hitting $880 by april 09 and with the way its going it going happen much earlier. :) with the rise in the gold price you can expect that oil will also go up now hitting $93 per barrel. And our oil companies here have announced that they are going to have a price hike. How can this be possible??? and why is that so because oil companies pay in dollars and our peso has strengthened so this means that more or less our oil companies here will still be paying more or less the same amount and why are they saying that they will have a price hike??? can they please explain why they have to do that??? was in robinson mall this weekend and i noticed the people around and there was one thing glaring thing that i noticed. I estimated only around 1 of 20 people carried shopping bags. I believe that that is not a good number. Why do sm malls go better??? what is the secret to their success?? is it their department store?? location?? what??? can anybody here help me and give me the answer??? :) good luck and god bless. Let us pray for all our loved ones who are in a better place. :) happy haloween to all!!! :)

into uncharted territory

Its nice to see the market get to these levels after the market panic caused by the us subprime problems. :) the market hit its highest point this year last july 6 at 3,822.41 and at the height of the panic was as low as 2,874.99 on august 17. i cant wait for the time the market will hit 3,830 for it will signal another strong rally upward and we just be not far from it because as of the close of the market last thursday it showed signs of a strong rally and maybe break the 3,830 mark in the process and who knows where the market will take us. :) im happy that investor interest is back with metrobank because i added shares in the company also in the recent market downturn. :) i would say it is one of the very stable and solid stocks in our market. Ayala corporation was a bargain when it sold below P450/share. It was just unbelievable. Good thing i was also able to grab some shares. It was like a ferarri with a flat tire, sure you couldnt drive it for the moment but with a little fixing it is still a ferarri after you have the tires replaced. :) from its low of P405 it has gained around 50% after a month and a half. :) who wouldve have thought the market would be back to these levels after such a short time. I knew the market was still healthy but i didnt expect it to be back near the 3,800 this soon. :) hopefully we could go beyond the 4,000 level before the year ends. :) i wrote the first part of my next article of this blog after the pacquiao vs barrera match and i just wrote the introduction because i didnt think the market was going to go up this fast. Sure the bullish trading last october 2 and 3 showed signs that the market is going to have a strong rally but this is really BULLISH. Imagine 2% gains every trading day last october 2, 3 and 8. and the stocks that are really leading the charge are pldt, ayala corporation, ayala land, sm investments, metrobank and bank of the philippine islands. :) i thought the market needed a week of two to break the 3,830 mark but boy was i wrong. :) with the 3.830 mark broken, technically the minimum upside of the market is at 4,770. :) how long will it take the market to get there well time will tell. :) im just glad i stuck it out with the market during the downturn last august. ;) with this rally there are still some stocks that havent caught up with the increasing market prices like universal robina, ivantage, jollibee, gma7, national reinsurance corporation, solid group inc, sm development corporation, banco de oro, anscor, asia and keppel marine philippines. :) what can i say the market is like a yo-yo right now (just shows irrational the market is) but its okay as they say look at the long term and dont mind the short term volatility. In short dont be near sighted!!!! :) hehehe the market is about to have a strong rally after breaking 3,830 and with the peso strengthening thats a good indicator that the market is going to continue to go up. :) there are even some talks of the peso reaching the low 40's by the end of this year but lets not talk about that for now for that is still a subject that i still have to study. :) there is also this company that im studying right now. I really like it for it shows a lot of potential. It might just be the next turnaround company. :) i will share it with everybody reading this blog after i study it but so far i have been impressed. :) good luck to everybody and God bless. :)

asian boom

Its been almost three weeks since ive put anything here... just been busy lately. Phew! Anyway lets get back to business and our business is stocks or finance or anything with value in it!!! :) theres a lot going thru my mind right for its three weeks worth of ideas and observations around me that i sometimes use also in my valuations. Simple as it may seem to the naked eye but if you really look and understand things deeply you will realize a lot of things. I was in hong kong for a week for business and luckily last thursday afternoon i had a bit of free time and i was able to go to hong kong disneyland with two friends. I know this might sound funny at my age but i still think that disney still has its magic!!! i really dont know what is it but theres just some kind of magic when youre there. I guess that is a good indicator of a good product and if only disney was a publicly traded company in the philippines i would surely love to own its stock. :)
when i was in hong kong there were a few simple things that i noticed that when i point this out to you you woud be surprised how you couldve taken it for granted. My trip to the said country was really for business but going around the country you cant help but notice some of the things there. Hong kong has very strong consumer spending like i was surprised when there was a line to go inside louis vuitton??? was really surprised to see that and i dont blame them for doing that because a lot of people go in the store not just to look but also to buy!!! there are a lot of buyers from hong kong residents but i believe that a big part of their costumers are people from the mainland. Which again im stressing that point that i have been making with you guys here. There will be an asian boom coming in the next few years and it is now believe almost inevitable now with the rise of metals, weakening of the us dollar and the looming recession of the us caused by the subprime crisis. Sooner or later fund managers and businessman will put their money somewhere where they can see promise or potential and that would be in asia. There will be shift in funds to asia!!! money is never lost it is only transformed or if you want transported in another place. :)
another thing that i also noticed in hong kong was the emergence of macau! Imagine this the venetian and wynn put up casinos there and soon mgm will have theirs operational also! What does this mean??? whenever there is a casino it means that there are people who are gamblers??? nahhhh just kidding it means that there are people with cash or excess money or in short people with money to burn. :) american companies put casinos there in macau to be able to get a piece of the pie and they see the potential in asia. :) just imagine folks three casinos in macau! Thats how confident they are in the asian market. :) if other people are so bullish with us here in asia shouldnt we also be bullish on ourselves???? :) another thing that i think also will help push up asia will the beijing olympics in august next year. :) it will be like a showcase of china and asia to the rest of the world. :) i wonder what is the effect of the olympics on the host country before and after the said event??? i think that would be an interesting study. :) i think an asian boom in the next few years is eminent but of course dont expect it to go up like a rocket i know there will still be some volatility but the general trend would be up. :)
there are only three things that could happen to an economy it could: go up, go down or move sideways. On the part of the us it is really going to go down even with the fed rate cuts because it is only a short term solution to the problem. It will solve the problem and calm the us markets in the short term but it is inflationary in the long term. It will drive the prices of different classes of assets up. And one asset that im really keeping an eye on is gold. :) when gold broke $695 my opinion was that the minimum upside of gold was $740 and it has already reached that mark and what it will do after that we have to see and gold will be supported by traders in the $690-$700 level. But i really do like the potential of gold with the weakening of the us dollar. :) i like gold so much that i even “speculated” on philex mining. :) i bought the stock of the company because i was confident with the rise in the price of gold and not because of the company itself. :) the market is now up almost 20% year to date and it is nice to see it back where it was before the panic but im still thankful for that for i was able to get shares in ayala corporation and national reinsurance at a good price. :) i attended the tatler 6th anniversary ball last saturday and it was a thrill for me to see all the bigwigs and taipans that shape our economy. :) look, observe and notice all the things that are happening around you to help you make your investment decisions. :) its nice to be back home. :) good luck and take care to everybody. :)
p.s. After a week of trying i have finally gotten through blogger!!! phew!!!

explosive 1st year

I can still remember it so clearly, its like it was just yesterday i had the guts to start my own blog about finance, investing, business and everything else because i was inspired by some of the blogs that i read on the internet. Its been a year since i started chiefstocks with the mission to popularize value investing and help others do better at the stock market. :) i hope i have achieved this even in just a small way. :) value investing is here to make investing easier and makes sure that when you build your portfolio there is very little margin for error. Ive mentioned this lots of times in this blog investing is about making as little mistakes as possible. :) according to warren buffett the most important thing investing is not even about making money but not losing money. In other words, capital preservation because what is the point of earning money if you also lose it. :) i have learned a lot from the market, from other investors, from spyfrat, from ericgo, from raffy boy and from my idol warren buffett and though i might not be good in writing but i really do try my best to impart to all of you the things that i learn. :) a lot has happened over the past year, it started with the computer in our home, then after awhile i was able to buy a laptop of my own, then i became single, then the market “crashed” with the shanghai bubble, then i went on a vacation, then the market had a strong rally and reached 3,800 and a few weeks lost almost 25% the cause of the drop was the us subprime market concerns, then the fed lowers the interests rates and the us market stabilizes which also calms our market here so from the bottom of the drop the market has recovered almost 10% from its low with all that has happened im still here and fighting. Phew! What a year it has been and im looking forward to another with all of you. I still believe that the bull market is not yet over for the problem is in the us and not here. :) i expect the market to rally back to its previous levels and even go higher from there. Our market just needs some time. :) id just like to make a rundown of some of the things that i have mentioned for the last year. :) always remember that the market is irrational and it also has a short memory. One day it gains 5% and the next day it losses 8% it really doesnt matter for we can take advantage of the market volatility to our advantage. :) buy low and sell high. :) there are two things that will happen in the market: it will go up and it will go down. :) the up and down of the market is caused by market sentiments but always remember that behind all those stocks that are trading in the market are company valuations. :) this is where money is to be made if you are just patient enough to wait long enough for the inconsistencies that do occur every once in awhile. Like a few weeks ago i was forced to sell my shares in unionbank to make way for ayala corp because it was selling at bargain levels. :) i had to do this for i only limit my portfolio to up to 20 stocks. Now a comment on our market, after two weeks of heavy selling or maybe you could even call it panic and it was definitely a panic for why sell when our market is healthy. The market drop was a chance to get stocks of great companies at lower prices. After the fed in the us lowered the interest rates it calmed the us market and that sentiment was also embraced here and caused the market to rise a bit. After this week's trading im lead to believe that technically the market is going to make a rally but it is going to be a weak one. I know that some agree and some dont agree to some of the things that i say but as ive said that it is only my opinion and time is the best judge if im right or wrong. :) i hope that your portfolio is doing well in this very volatile market of ours. :) good luck on all your trades and God bless. :)