Wednesday, January 30, 2008

crazy mister market

Its been two weeks since i wrote an article here and a lot has happened. :) i attended my friend's wedding and i was beside my businessman friend and we talked about our idols in philippine business, his being john gokongwei and mine being henry sy. Both have a different approach to business but they both get results and as they say “you cant argue with success.” :) i will talk about them more in the future. The us markets have gone crazy and maybe i can say that they are in now a semi-panic. And i would agree that it is contagious and our local market here has also gone wild and maybe we could make a documentary or movie about this and the title would be “markets gone wild.” :) hehehe just when the markets showed technical signs that it was going to make a rally then it goes down hard and then it had sucessive days of increase then it goes down again. Its like a crazy rollercoaster ride. :) i think it is starting to become clear now that the us is going into a recession and the question is... is greenspan a genius or the source of all the problems the us are experiencing now? :) a genius because he was able to keep the us economy afloat for how many years or should he blamed for delaying the envitable recession which is now hitting the us hard because it came a couple of years late? :) you be the judge! :) and the next us election will really be critical and who knows what just might happen. :) personally id like to see barrack obama get into the white house. :) it would be nice to see an african-american in the oval office but the question is that if the us is ready for a black president. :) ill just write here whatever pops into my head and of course it chould also be relevant to finance and investments. :) commodities have been hot lately with the recent us downturn. :) this might just be the golden years of gold!!! hehehe but dont expect it to be a smooth ride just last week gold was as high as $920 then went to as low as $850 and then increased around 7.5% in just 60 hours and reached $920. :) phew! Im just thankful my stomach has been able to take the market turbulence lately. :) we have been infected with this market panic. And what is the result of that???? bargains, bargains and bargains in the market. :) to name even a few theres meg, chi, mbt, chib, sm, jfc, ac, ali and kpm has been strongly trending up even with the market volatility as of late. :) last january 23 the philippine daily inquirer had for its headlines “global stock plunge” and then on the same day most markets around the world took back those losses and also the day after, this just shows how fickle minded the market is. :) thats how mr market is. :) i have seen the fs of urc and what can i say? Im happy its condition has been the same since the first time i took notice of it 4years ago. It still has s solid balance sheet and even though its income statement has a nig investment gain in it i could still say that it is a bargain in its current price. :) its international line still hasnt taken off i might add. :) well i would agree that it is in a boring industry but does that follow that profits are also boring??? :) its profits are in the billions and i would expect it to continue in the next couple of years. :) id like to invest in the market with the current prices but im still strapped for cash because i paid for my restaurant investment with friends that we put up in laguna. :) so ill gather up ammo first then wait for bargains but as for the moment ill just stay put and just watch from the sidelines. Tsktsktsk last january 20, i attended my friend's(high school classmate) wedding and intimate reception at his wife's home. It was a fun event being able to be with close friends it always a refreshing and enjoyable experience. :) the next day i shared the photos that i took during the wedding with another classmate of ours who is in new york and i realized how easy it is now in this age of computers and digital technology. :) if its that easy to now send information to any part of the world i could assume that it is also that easy to send money to anywhere in the world. :) so what am i driving at??? that dont be surprised if foreign money will go in to asia soon. :) there is nothing special with my reasoning it is all about common sense and simple logic. :) remember that if only 2 people have the same idea out of 10 it means that what you have is something special. :) in other words contrarian is the way to go. :) dinagyang was a lot of fun this weekend here in iloilo. :) you should be here next year to join all the fun!!! :) good luck and God bless to everybody and hold it in. :)

Sunday, January 13, 2008

the year that was and the year ahead

Happy new year again to everybody and good luck to a year of trading and investing. :) its been a busy year so far! Phew! I helped organize and attended my friends wedding, after that i got sick because of the stress and also maybe because of fatigue and then i was in binan, laguna last friday to attend the opening of our restaurant business with friends. :) i hope this business venture of ours will turn out great and give us great returns. :) i also got life insurance from my best friend and the truth of the matter is that i didnt want to get any insurance policies because the money that im going to pay for them is my investing money. Tsktsktsk i would rather invest them myself and im sure i would be able to get better returns. It would give me a 5.5% compounded return in 20 years. Tsktsk its not that good but i would like to look at it like a time deposit in the bank. :) so all is well after all. :) then just before new year i bought a ream of cigarettes and i did some computing, in 15 years a ream of cigarettes would be worth P1,000 already. So smoke all you can while its still cheap!!! hehehe im just joking. :) i will do a study on that next time on why you shouldnt be smoking. :) i will give you the reasons both health-wise and money-wise. :)
now its time to talk about investing!!! what do i predict this year??? i dont have any but i do know that i will continue to buy great companies at fair prices. :) from a technical point of view had a chat with spyfrat and according to him it will be the year of commodities, the psei will be really volatile in the short term and might stabilize maybe around march, gold can reach $1,000 before the first half of the year ends(as of last trading day gold closed at $895) and the US will really be falling prey to a recession. :) what is the difference with our situation now and the asian crisis 10 years ago. :) one of the reasons why the bubble burst 10 years ago was that because everything was overvalued, we started to run even before we learned to walk. Now that the us is in a financial crisis you can expect that there will be a shift of capital from the us to asia. :) 10 years ago there was still no china and india factor and in the next few years they will both lead the charge in asia's rise. :) asia is now more mature now economically and can now face the world. :) asia i believe is still undervalued and will soon catch with europe and the us. :) its all part of the economic cycle:what comes up must come down and once your down you have nowhere to go but up. :) hehehe the us is a credit economy and the average american has $20 in their wallet. :) i think that the filipinos are better off and have more than P1,000 in their wallet. :) i remember this story of some friends in hong kong, its a story when they were handed back to china. :) chinese from the mainland started coming to hong kong signature shops and shopped like crazy. :) and believe it or not they paid with cash. :) they still didnt have credit cards. :) and they say that china is overheating??? i think that its still growing because it still has a lot of catching up with the western world. :) china is still in a growing stage! :) the philippines will ride the wave that china has created. :) lets wait and see what happens. :) as for the philippine stock market??? i think it will continue to improve but dont take my word for it because you never know what mood mr market is in. :)im hoping for a 15-20% return by the market this year. :) im really now sure what the market will do this year but i do hope mr market will be generous enough to give me some bargains this year. :)
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