Monday, November 24, 2008
ps. to the girl who broke my heart
i have no hard feelings for you
i dont have any ill feelings towards you
i learned so many lessons with what happened
between us and with pain there are
lessons to be learned.
Some things just have to happen
in your life to shape you.
I now see the wisdom why it had to happen....
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
A brand name according to mr webster is the name which a given brand of goods is known. A brand is an identifying mark;trademark. Or something that distinguishes it from other goods. :) from an accounting point of view this is an intangible asset because it is something that cannot be quatified but i do believe that it is a very powerful weapon that can be used by any company. :) a perfect example of this is my friend's dad, we were discussing about stocks one time and he mentioned that he only buys ayala stocks. The main reason is that you believe in the product or in the company. :) he believes that the company is ethical and always puts shareholder interests first. :) it is the ayala brand for my friend's dad that set it apart from other companies knowing that the company stands for excellence. :) another example here is jollibee and mcdonald's. Why do people prefer the bee over ronald macdonald? :) maybe because people here see that jollibee is more suited for the filipino tongue or is it something that they can identify with? There are so many questions to be asked but one thing i do know is that a strong brand will definitely have an advantage over its competitors. :) a firm believer of this is nobody else but mr warren buffett himself. :) but we do have to admit he was more a student of benjamin graham when it comes to value investing but his path what somewhat influenced by his partner mr charlie munger. :) if it wasnt for charlie munger buffett wouldnt have bought see's candies which was five times its book value, coca cola, american express, just to name a few. :) but munger showed him that even though the company was five times its book value there was still value to be found because the see's candies brand cannot be quantified. :) it doesnt show in the financial statements of the company. :) just doing a little survey among my friends i asked what softdrink would they rather have?? pepsi or coca cola. :) the answers that i got were interesting. :) around 2/3 of the respondents wanted to have a coca cola. :) i got a lot of answers saying that they were already used to drinking coke and that it tastes better. :) i also believe that the advertisements have an influence on the preference of the respondents also(this is just a theory of mine) because the ads condition the viewer subliminally that coke is better. :) and we do have to admit that coke is the stronger brand because just the bottle itself is recognized by millions of people around the world. Another theory of mine is that there is really brand loyalty by consumers. :) the coke distribution network here in the philippines, i believe, is superior compared to its counterparts which makes us come to the conclusion that by the time its competitors are able to penetrate the different parts here in the country most of the time coke was already there first. And when consumers are comfortable or get used to a certain product most of the time they will stick it out with the product. :) that example also applies for smart here in the philippines. :) being the first to really have the widest cellular coverage in the country so it also follows that a lot of people had smart as their first cellular network and a lot of those people have continued to patronize the said network which makes it really hard for other networks to equal their subscriber base. :) and another question i was sharing with my best friend the other day... what if a diffrerent container was used and you put coke inside it and the name on the bottle will be “coco-cola”. Will it sell as good when it was in the distinct coke bottle with the red coca cola logo on it?? :) now you tell me will you yourself buy the product? :) thank you so much for your time. :) for any comments, questions and suggestions please email me at email@example.com. God bless to all of you. :) good luck.
ps. today its been two years that i have been sharing my thoughts with all of you. Thank you for joining me in my journey. :) happy birthday mr warren buffett. :)
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Sunday, August 10, 2008
China has finally had its break-out party and announcing to the world of its arrival with the 2008 beijing olympics. :) how will china affect the world? :) when youre on top everybody follows you. :) just like now, the american culture has a lot of influence all over the world from fastfood, clothes, music, movies and language to name a few. :) looking back at history the united states of america starting from the time of george washington took 100-150 years to be a truly world superpower and now the question is how long will it take china to get to the level that the us is in right now? Or will it ever get that powerful in the future? China is now a big threat to a lot of nations especially when it comes to industries because of china's cheap labor. China's rise to power started in the late 70's or early 80's and since then it has become a hungry machine continually expanding even up tp the point of increasing steel prices all over the world because of its unsatiable demand. The country has been expanding at a meteoric rate and has done so for a lot of years and some say that the bubble will burst soon. Well that remains to be seen. But with progress also comes a downside, pollution in china has been bad even up to the point that the international olympic committee has asked them to do something about it. Any country will welcome progress but it should always be sustainable development. :) pollution was never on their mind when coal fired power plants were being built at an average of one being opened and operated every week in the last few years and when factories were being constructed. In a way you cant blame the officials because these bring income to the city and work for the people but it also comes at a price. Just like the united states i just saw in the discovery channel last night that the us was one of the worst polluted places on the planet. This is because when they were growing they kept on opening coal power plants to supply their energy needs but now they are doing away with it .and are trying to develop clean and sustainable energy. Coal fired power plants are a short term solution with disastrous long term consequences. Tsktsk as they say yin and yang. I've seen on the discovery channel that china have spent billions of us dollars to improve the pollution problem and i laud their officials for taking action. It is never too late. :) china in terms of business and economy is now very stable but i could also say that it is still growing which is the really scary part. :) i believe that business in china has been so good that i know of a lot of people who decided to learn mandarin which shows the spread of chinese influence. :) business has been so good that world class casinos have been sprouting all over macau which of course since 1999 have been given back to china. :) these are just one of the few indicators of china's success and influence. The us right now is still in turmoil with the subprime crisis and it is also an election year and using logic, the new president on his first year still cant get things done and will still try to get the policies that he wants in place so i assume this subprime crisis will still go on for the next 2-3 years. Thats just my opinion and who knows maybe the new president can get america back on its feet right away but that still remains to be seen(lets just hope its not mccain because he will just be another george bush). :) the question, is will this even catapult china faster up in its influence in the world? :) now that is has opened its country to the world will it even increase its tourism industry? There is a lot of money in the tourism industry and it could really help the economy of any country a really concrete example is greece because i believe that maybe half of the country's income is tourism related. If only we could develop our tourism industry more here in the philippines it would really benefit us and it is nice to see that our taipans here see the potential and have invested in the said industry. I just hope our country could also develop the industry more to bring in more revenues for the country. If the balance of power does shift to asia then china and india will be the ones most likely to benefit from it but i do hope it will also benefit our country, the philippines, in a good way. :) im hoping for the best for our country. For a more stable political climate so that we could have a better investing environment. Please feel free to answer the 2-3 poll questions everytime you visit my blog. Let me hear your thoughts, questions and suggestions and send me an email at firstname.lastname@example.org. Good luck and God bless to you all. :)
Friday, August 01, 2008
mayroon akong kasama
saan man ay dala-dala
nang dumilim ay nawala
wala na akong kasama
this was a poem a wrote when i was in high school and i decided to write it here right now to reflect my mood. i just want to vent out my loneliness, frustrations, disappointments and anger. i just want to get it out of my system so that i could function properly again.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
hello again everyone. its been quite some time since ive written something here in my blog. july has been a very busy month with me and to be honest with you im even feeling a bit under the weather writing this article. my friends and i did some fund raising for the flood victims here in iloilo, then i had some relationship problems and a ton of work at the office. as my friend's dad told me at a party at their home "we're getting clobbered" referring to the philippines stock market. :) i too physically am getting clobbered just like the market. but its okay i know i will recover. i just need to rest a little.i was able to get some information on some stocks and i will be writing about it soon. :) please bear with me just for awhile. i see a lot of great stocks selling on bargain prices right now. :) if you have excess cash and willing to invest for the long term now is a great time to do so in my opinion. there is not much to say right now then you dont have to buy you could just wait for the market to stabilize and then dive in. :) i will definitely have a better article for you next week. :) for any comments, suggestions and questions please email me at email@example.com.
ps my former best friend is such as asshole. hehehe good luck to you all
Wednesday, July 09, 2008
oil's is in its last parabolic leg. time analysis suggest it should end july til sep (max early oct) as base 3 (or the period covered by X) is only 10 months. in the sample chart of broadvision, the perfect parabolic curve of its X is also 10months and its last leg was due on the 8th time bar. on it's 9th time bar, broadvision broked the key reversal red trendline. im just fascinated by the resemblance of oil's parabolic with broadvision. unfortunately, prices cant be determine but if we use mathematical proportion we can guess.
broadvision x = 90, high = 138 (did not doubled in percentage but the leg is shortest in percentage increase); gain = 53%
last leg parabolic started 138 to 192 within 8 time bars.
% change = 192/138 = 39%
ratio of % gain: last leg parabolic of boradvision is 73.5% of it's X percentage gain. to show = 39/53 = 0.735
oil's x = 50, high = 98 ; gain 96%
oil's last leg started at 88 (base of red trendline)
solving for "guessed" max/high price of oil's last leg:
formula: projected max/high price of last leg = (start of oil's last leg parabolic) times (1+(percentage gain of oil's X) times (ratio of % gain of X and parabolic of broadvision))
ratio of % gain of broadvision's X and last leg = 73.5% or 0.735
start of oil's last leg parabolic = 88
% gain of oil's x = 96% or 0.96
projected max/high price of last leg = 88 x (1+(0.96 x 0.735))= $150/bbl
caveat. there's no relation between broadvision and oil except similarity of their charts. there are other parabolic chart sample other than broadvision which could lead to different ratios and proportion. so happen both charts have similar wave counts (base 2 to base 3) and time correction pattern (base 4) as well as valid trendlines (4 of them with the red trendline as the key).
Support the street children movement.
this is spyfrat's post. :) spyfrat is a fllod victim and yet he still had the time to write something for us here!!! a true testament for his love of investing and trading. :) i decided to add little flavor to the blog by having a guest writer from a different school of thought. :) but of course i still believe the your investing style really depends on what your goals are and your tolerance for risk and patience. after all short term investors and long term investors are after the same thing PROFIT! we just have a different process of doing it. as they say in school in math class "the process doesnt matter as long as you get the right answer."
ps for any comments, questions or suggestion please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
i will also try to have a fundamental analysis of oil next time if i have the time. :)
Friday, July 04, 2008
i will let the photos speak for itself. typhoon frank has hit iloilo hard. help is badly needed here. my high school batch is raising funds for the flood victims. please email me at email@example.com if you want to make a donation. thank you very much and God bless.
Friday, June 20, 2008
during the regular season of the nba the boston celtics were able to have the league's best record with 66 wins and 16 losses and a very big improvement from last year's record of 24-58. the team before the season started was bolstered with trades for kevin garnett(one of the most versatile big men the game has ever seen but has never had any playoff success) and ray allen(one of the deadliest shooters the game has seen but also has never been to the nba finals). The celtics was one of the favorites to win the championship at the start of the season with the new player additions but there were also doubts if the three big stars could play together. :) they showed everybody that they were serious of winning a championship and played beautifully together leading to the nba's best record. :) los angeles on the other hand had a shaky start to the season with kobe asking the team that he be traded. But all ended well when trade talks ended up empty and the lakers got lucky and were able to trade for the spaniard pau gasol from the memphis grizzlies. The trade definitely strengthened the team and instantly made them championship contenders. :) with this we see management coming into play and how important it is in both team's succes. With danny ainge and boston coach doc rivers they were able to get three great players(i should also say future hall of famers) to play together and blend their talents with the rest of the team and eventually win the nba finals trophy. :) the los angeles management and phil jackson on the other hand were able to let kobe stay with the team and surround him with players that would complement him. So here is my point when it comes to investing, good management will always go a long way. :) and my next point is that good management also needs a good product in order to succeed and in basketball it is the players that is their asset. :) good products and good management are important ingredients for success just like both teams we mentioned. :)
at the start of the playoffs everybody started doubting boston already because they barely got eliminated in rounds one and two with supposedly “weaker” teams but they started playing better in the eastern conference finals dispatching the powerhouse detroit pistons and played even better in the nba finals. The los angeles lakers on the other hand continued their beautiful play from the regular season easily defeating their opponents denver and utah in rounds one and two. They even eliminated the defending champions san antonio spurs in just five games. :) there are a few factors on why the boston celtics were able to beat the lakers. :) ive read expert articles and predictions before the start of the finals and according to the so called experts in almost all the positions the lakers had the edge and 80% of them predicted that los angeles was going to win in six games. :) but what happened????? boston won it in six games with some of the factors that i am going to mention. Home court advantage as they say there is no place like home. :) boston has always been known to have one of the best fans in the nba and with your city behind you it even makes you wanna play harder. :) boston wanted it more, they just wanted to win more and it is very evident with the way they play. The perfect example was paul pierce in game one when he sprained his knee but opted to continue playing cause for him it was now or never in winning a championship which really inspired his team. They played more intense, more passionate and with more desire. Players like rondo and perkins also got injured during the series but continued playing and helping their team and i could say that they were in inspired by their leader. The team with more desire to win the game will surely win it. :) it seemed to me the intense play of the celtics “rattled” the lakers and lead them to fall apart. It is not enough to have a plan because what is really essential is having a great plan and being able to put it into action and the lakers failed in this for they got away from their game plan. :) boston's bench outplayed la's bench. During the regular season the lakers played really well because they had great support from their bench but in the finals the la bench was really outplayed what could be the reason???? i really couldnt explain but i think it boils down to who wants to win more. Boston was able to control superstar kobe bryant and he never dominated the series. How did boston do this??? by scouting and studying their opponents carefully. :) just like in investing everything starts with research and i believe is a very big factor in success. :) they controlled kobe forcing him to be more passive in offense and pass off to his teammates and make them beat boston and they never stepped up and maybe i could say they were demoralized too seeing their leader having a hard time with the celtic defense. :) if you really look at the celtic team there is nobody who could defend kobe one on one. What boston did was to have a first defender and behind him was a second defender and the rest of the team waiting for him. This is teamwork at its best. :) boston had a good plan and executed it to perfection. :) boston really played like a team passing the ball, everybody contributing and playing their roles well and playing good team defense. :) in the nba it is not enough to have talent but also to have the heart and will power to win. It is what separates the good players from the great players of the game. :) these are the players that inspire the rest of the team to follow their lead to victory. :) the 2008 boston celtics i believe was one of the best teams that this league has seen in a very long time, one with talent and heart. This was really displayed during game4 of the finals when boston overcame a 24point deficit to win the game(mind you on their opponent's home court) and only great teams have the character and capacity to accomplish feats like this. They just might have destroyed the morale of the lakers organization just like the dallas mavericks when they had their game3 blunder against the miami heat in the 2005 nba finals(the organization was never really able to recover from that loss). Hopefully this does'nt happen to the los angeles lakers for i have been a big fan since the 80's when kareem and magic were still playing but i decided this time to root for boston because i know that my “best friend” (who is a traitor) bet a lot of money for the lakers to win the series(if my sources are correct around P120K). :) and another reason for cheering for boston was that the big 3 kevin garnett, ray allen and paul pierce are all gentlemen of the game and truly deserve to win championship. :) in the more than 50 years of the nba boston and la met each other in the nba finals for the eleventh time and after this series boston has dominated la 9 wins to 2(of the 17 championships of boston 9 were at the expense of the lakers). why is that so???? i believe it is in the philosophy of the organization. Boston has always been team oriented, efficient and has always been known for their defense while la on the other hand has always been known for their big name superstars and their offense. Just a brilliant example that most of the time defense will always win over offense because with defense the margin of error is lower. :) i hope you enjoyed reading and this helps you with your investments and in life. :) good luck
ps. i didn't bet any money on the series. Hehe im just happy that boston won. :) for any comments, suggestions or questions please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org. :) to a few who asked about oil, gold, biodiesel(luckily ive been researching on the subject for a few months now), commodities, food prices, food crisis and about some stuff ill try to find time to write about it. in chiefstocks we just dont talk about stocks and business but also about life and how to make it better for everyone!!! good luck and God bless you!!! till next time. :)
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
comparing apples and assets
We expect the same thingto sell for the same price. This is the Law of One Price. Why should this be true? Common sense dictates that if you could buy an apple for $0.25 and sell it for $0.50 across the street, then everyone would want to buy apples where they are cheap and sell them where they are priced higher. Yet this price disparity will not last: as people take advantage, prices will adjust until apples of the same quality sell for the same price on both sides of the street. Furthermore, a basket of apples must be priced in light of the total cost of buying the fruit individually. Otherwise, people will make up their own baskets and sell them to take advantage of any mispricing. the arbitrage relationship between individual asset prices and overall portfolio values is explored later in this chapter.
The structure imposed on prices by economic incentives is the same in financial markets as in the apple market. Yet a different approach must be taken to determine what what constitutes the “same thing” in financial markets. For example, securities are the “same” if they produce the sane outcomes, which considers both their expected returns and risk. They should consequently sell for the same prices. Similarly, equivalent combinations of assets providing the same outcomes should sell for the same price. Thus, the criteria for equivalence among financial securities involve the comparability of expected returns and risk. If the same thing sells for different prices, the Law of One Price is violated, and the price disparity will be exploited through arbitrage. Thus, the Law of One Price imposes structure on asset prices through the discipline of the profit motive. Similarly, if stocks with the same risk have different expected returns, the Law of One Expected Return is violated.
Economic Foundations of the Law of One Price
The Law of One Price holds under reasonable assumptions concerning what investors like and dislike and how they behave in light of their preferences and constraints. Specifically, our analysis assumes the following:
More wealth is preferred to less. Wealth enhancement is a more comprehensive criterion than return or profit maximization. Wealth considers not only potential returns and profits but also constraints, such as risk.
Investor choices should reflect the dominance of one investment over another. Given two alternative investments, investors prefer the one that performs at least as well as the other in all envisioned future outcomes and better in at least one potential future outcome.
An investment that generates the same return(outcome) in all envisioned potential future situations is riskless and therefore should earn the risk-free rate. Lack of variability in outcomes implies no risk. Thus, strategies that produce risk-less returns but exceed the risk-free return on a common benchmark, such as the U.S. Treasury bills, must involvemispriced invesments.
Economic incentives ensure that two investments offering equivalent future outcomes should, and ultimately will, have equivalent prices(returns).
The process of a short sale are available to the investor. This assumption is easiest to accept for large, institutional investors or traders who may be considered price-setters on the margin. Even is this assumption seems a bit fragile, market prices generally behave as if it holds wel enough. The nature and significance of short sales are discussed more later in this chapter.
Systematic, persistent deviations from the Law of One Price should not occur in efficient financial markets. Deviations should be relatively rare or so small as not to be worth the transaction costs involved in exploiting them. Indeed, when arbitrage opportunities do appear, those traders with the lowest transaction costs are the ones likely to be the only one who can profitably exploit them. The Law of One Price is largely-but not completely-synonymous with equilibrium, which balances the forces of supply and demand.
This article was in response to an email sent to me asking if there was a law(like supply and demand) that could support value investing. Then here it is for everyone to read. This was taken from the book “understanding arbitrage: an intuitive approach to financial analysis” pages 5 to 7 by randall billingsley. Wishing you all good luck on your life and in your trades and investments. :) for any comments, questions or suggestions please email me at email@example.com
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Thursday, May 01, 2008
ps: for any comments, suggestions or questions please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org. please also feel free to answer the poll questions :) i will always make sure that there are 2 or 3 poll questions open everytime you log in. :) please forgive the typographical errors that i commit sometimes :) i just have to keep on writing when i have a good idea. :) good luck on your endeavours. :)
Monday, April 28, 2008
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
diesel is increasing at a rate of 15% per annum. tsktsk and i think it will keep on going up and with that expect fares to also go up. And i think the most serious crisis of them all right now is the rice shortage which is a staple to the filipino diet. :) they say that there is a rice shortage and i really dont know the truth behind it. Some say that this is a ploy of the government so that the people will forget about the zte deal scandal. I really dont know but what i do know right now is that a solution should be made for the rice prices to stop rising and to stabilize. Tsktsk im calling all the rice hoarders to please release whatever rice they may have for the betterment of our country. If you keep hoarding rice at this time i believe it is tantamount to economic sabotage and the government should do something about it. :) i have even heard stories that the warehouses of these rice hoaders when they were being checked up by the officials were empty but the truth of the matter is that their stock were in barges in the middle of nowhere. Calling officials please do something about this. I really dont know the truth about this. But that is the story thats been going around. Maybe its just a rumor or maybe its the truth i really dont know but every avenue to fix the rice shortage should be checked by the top men of the nfa. :) please do something about this!! :) according to my friend from the media holp-ups, burglaries and related crimes have been increasing lately which is probably because of desperate attempts for money. These are desperate attempts for money and to be able to provide for their family. Tsktsktsk another sign that a lot of the population are having money problems or hardships. Tsktsktsk im sure the government realizes this and businessmen should expect an increase in wages soon. Tsktsktsk can you see the pattern???? its a vicious cycle!!! everybody is affected in this. :) talked to a college classmate who is now an executive in the sm department store and she told me that the sales have dropped in almost all of their branches and they attribute this because of the rice shortage and it being a staple of every family. Families have to adjust their budgets for the increase of price in rice. Tsktsktsk im sure there will be bad debts here and there because of the crisis but it wont reach that level of the us subprime crisis so we dont have to worry about that. :) let us hold on tight, it will be a bumpy ride in the next few months but i know there is light at the end of the tunnel. :) every economy will undergo its ups and downs and this is something that we have to surpass. :) to put it in simple words i dont know what the market is suffering from right now. Is it just a slight fever of flu i really cant diagnose it. Hehehe :) just continue to do research and continue to find for diamonds in the rough. :) bargains are to be found at this time. :) patience is a virtue. :) i still expect oil and gold to keep on going up so better buy your loved ones some jewelry while its still cheap. :) God bless. :)
p.s. For any comments, questions or suggestions please email me at email@example.com. And for questions sent to me by email last week i'll answer them soon. :)
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Saturday, April 05, 2008
Im inclined to write another article about this one because i just cant stop myself from doing so and that i cant stop people around me from talking about it. :) how many times have we heard our elders talk.... “when i was still a kid coca-cola was only worth P0.10” or “when i was in high school batchoy was just just P0.30” or “when i was still in school my allowance was just P5.00 a week” or “your grandfather bought this lot for only P10.00 per square meter”. :) hopefully someday i can also say that.... “i first bought urc at P6.40 per share.” or “mbt was just selling for P25.00 per share when i started investing in stocks.” :) but these stories are all so true. :) they say that the two absolute things in life are death and taxes and i could say one of the ALMOST absolute things in life should be rising prices in almost all things. :) and that also applies with stocks but.......... only with quality stocks. As warren buffett said “when holding a great stock time is your best friend but when holding a bad stock time is your worst enemy.” When i say quality stocks they are the ones with a solid business with room for growth and at the same time they have solid and honest management :) but just because those two things are present in a company it doesnt that you'll buy them right away but you wait for them to drop to a certain price wherein you could get superior long term returns. :) but that is easier said than done because one of the hardest parts in investing is the waiting...... waiting for the right price that is. :) i have done some calculations of some basic stuff that we consume like coke has increased at an average of 8.25% per annum in the last 50 years and batchoy has increased at an average of almost 12% per year. :) which brings compounding back in my head. :) im a social smoker i must admit and i have to admit that the figures and future compounded returns or losses that is could drive me to stop smoking once and for all. Lets calculate here: if i smoke a ream of cigarettes every month with the cost of a ream for the sake of simplicity at around P300 which is P3,600 in a year. And now making assumptions here are the results. This will be the money that i lost if i had foregone smoking and instead invested it in stocks:
15% per annum in 15 years P29,293.42
in 20 years P58,919.53
in 25 years P118,508.23
in 30 years P238,362.38
20% per annum in 15 years P55,465.28
in 20 years P138,015.36
in 25years P343,426.38
in 30 years P854,554.73
this is the power of compounding to you at its finest. :) and i still havent mentioned the mounting medical bills because of heart, lung, bad gums, bad teeth, insomia, yellowish fingertips and a weaker immune system caused by smoking and not to mention that men are more prone to impotence when they smoke. Phew!!!! so in the end you will lose more than the figures that i mentioned above. :) again remember that health is wealth so dont kill yourself working for money. Enjoy it also every once in awhile. :) i have made up my mind to buy a nikon dslr the d80 model. But please i dont want to count the future income that i will lose if i buy this camera..... its my new hobby and you need to have a diversion every now and then. :) enjoy life but also be prudent. God bless you always and good luck with your investments. :)
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
maybe you guys are wondering why i made a poll about jamby madrigal and pia cayetano. It was just an idea that came up when they had a cat fight in the senate. :) i voted for pia cayetano i have to admit(she's also cute by the way) but i didn't vote for jamby madrigal. What have they both done while they were in office. Jamby making the news for protecting a tree and pia cayetano for entering all those athletic races and stuff. I have to admit they both haven't done enough and i could say that more deserving people deserve to be there. Let your vote be counted. :) good luck on all you invesments. :) God bless. :)
p.s. For any comments, questions and suggestions please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
and a joke for all of you! What disease is the market suffering right now??? answer: beary-beary. :)
Saturday, March 15, 2008
gold has finally reached the promised land!!! it has finally breached the 4digit level. :) according to the charts the minimum upside of gold is $1,020 and who knows what will happen after that??? but looking at the long-term charts of gold like way back 70's and 80's the minimum upside that i could see from the charts is $1,250 and i know what's going through your mind that i might be crazy or something but hey im just telling you what i can see from the charts. :) hehehe i remember when i told my dad this the first time it was like almost 2years ago i was driving and he was in the front seat and he violently opposed! hehehe but now he's a believer. ;) because if you now look at it fundamentally it is now very much possible with the recession in the us and also being an election year you can't expect the next president to immediately make an impact in the economy because those things take time. :) so expect the same from the us in the next 2 to 3 years which would mean a stronger peso against the dollar and higher commodity prices. so the question right now is.... do you buy or do you sell??? the answer i believe that whichever way you go you just have to remember that there should always be a margin of safety in whatever course of action that you will take. :)
i am now inclined to tell you a story about a friend. i decided to tell you their story as a lesson for all of us. let us remember the important principles of value investing margin of safety and preservation of capital. this friend and all of her siblings did'nt practice these important principles which in the end made them broke. it is really a sad story to tell but it is something we can all learn from. after the death of their mother the my friend and her siblings got a sizable inheritance and instead of investing the money into something that could give them good returns they threw it down all in the drain. the most important rule in investing is that you should never lose whatever money that it is that you or in short preservation of capital. :) and then margin of safety they also did'nt practice this because of putting up a business or working to earn a decent income to support themselves they instead decided to live the good life and spend their money and spend it until they got broke. when they got the inheritance their relatives advised them not to spend and take good care of their money but all of these fell into deaf ears. if theu listened to the wisdom of their elders this tragedy could've been avoided. the sad part of it all is that the elders that they didnt listen too are now the people they are running to for help. i really dont know how i could help my friend but if i do help her she should at least have the will to help herself. let us remember that life is not easy and it is those challenges that we have in life that make life more colorful and give us character. lets go and fight the fight. :) good luck to everyone looking for bargains in the market because there are a lot. God bless.
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a friend texted me and asked if metrobank is having a bank run. i told him of course not because if the biggest bank and one of the most stable banks in the country does have a bank run it would surely mean the end of our country and everybody in it.
i would like to end this article on the lighter side. what is the difference between a penis and life??? answer: life is always hard!!! hahahaha
good luck manny pacquiao! go out there and make us proud. :)
Friday, March 07, 2008
Sunday, March 02, 2008
p.s. for any comments, questions or suggestions please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Saturday, February 09, 2008
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Sunday, January 13, 2008
now its time to talk about investing!!! what do i predict this year??? i dont have any but i do know that i will continue to buy great companies at fair prices. :) from a technical point of view had a chat with spyfrat and according to him it will be the year of commodities, the psei will be really volatile in the short term and might stabilize maybe around march, gold can reach $1,000 before the first half of the year ends(as of last trading day gold closed at $895) and the US will really be falling prey to a recession. :) what is the difference with our situation now and the asian crisis 10 years ago. :) one of the reasons why the bubble burst 10 years ago was that because everything was overvalued, we started to run even before we learned to walk. Now that the us is in a financial crisis you can expect that there will be a shift of capital from the us to asia. :) 10 years ago there was still no china and india factor and in the next few years they will both lead the charge in asia's rise. :) asia is now more mature now economically and can now face the world. :) asia i believe is still undervalued and will soon catch with europe and the us. :) its all part of the economic cycle:what comes up must come down and once your down you have nowhere to go but up. :) hehehe the us is a credit economy and the average american has $20 in their wallet. :) i think that the filipinos are better off and have more than P1,000 in their wallet. :) i remember this story of some friends in hong kong, its a story when they were handed back to china. :) chinese from the mainland started coming to hong kong signature shops and shopped like crazy. :) and believe it or not they paid with cash. :) they still didnt have credit cards. :) and they say that china is overheating??? i think that its still growing because it still has a lot of catching up with the western world. :) china is still in a growing stage! :) the philippines will ride the wave that china has created. :) lets wait and see what happens. :) as for the philippine stock market??? i think it will continue to improve but dont take my word for it because you never know what mood mr market is in. :)im hoping for a 15-20% return by the market this year. :) im really now sure what the market will do this year but i do hope mr market will be generous enough to give me some bargains this year. :)
for any comments, suggestions, questions or whatever please email me at email@example.com